TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Sales per store per day

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by MSMX2014, Dec 6, 2013.

  1. MSMX2014

    MSMX2014 $ Contributing Member $

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2013
    Messages:
    68
    Location:
    California
    I had an interesting discussion with a Tesla employee yesterday who claimed to be 'in the know'. This employee was very knowledgeable and seemed to be on the up and up. According to this Tesla employee, Tesla is currently averaging about 100 sales per month per store. On the Tesla website there appears to be 46 stores/galleries in North America. That would be 4,600 sales per month nationwide. This would mean 13,800 sales total for Tesla in Q4. Elon recently said that Q4 sales are much higher than expected. The employee did say, "you know I shouldn't be telling you this". This would be a ridiculous blowout if true. I don't see why this employee would lie to me. Thoughts anyone?

    - - - Updated - - -

    I recently read a tweet that Jim Cramer recommends buying TSLA before Q4ER. Has anyone heard this?
     
  2. Subhuman

    Subhuman Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2013
    Messages:
    237
    Location:
    United States
    This comparison makes no sense to me. Telsa sells it's vehicles independent of the stores. I understand that stores can help drive sales however Tesla will still many cars even if the stores did not exist. Comparing car sales to stores makes zero sense.

    About Q4ER - As many have said already i think Q4ER will be all about the future guidance which most poeple around here believe will be very good. With that being said, if you want to place any chips it would probably be a good idea to get in before Q4ER. My 2 cents...
     
  3. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2013
    Messages:
    5,383
    Location:
    Delaware
    That may be 'orders/reservations' per month that the TM store person gave you which may be believable. However, many (including myself) were fooled by following VIN assignments for Q3ER. Orders and VIN numbers do not correspond well to production/sales. 'Sales' would be the point were money changes hands. If I felt they would sell/deliver 13K+ cars in Q4 we would all be emptying the piggy bank and checking for loose 'sofa change' to buy more shares. :biggrin:

    That said.....It would be a nice surprise.

    Cramer: I have not seen anything where he says buy before Q4ER
     
  4. Larken

    Larken Member

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2013
    Messages:
    341
    Location:
    Sweden
    We should be really really careful with spreading rumours like this so we don't set ourselves up for another Q3 "dissapointment", which, as we all know, came from hyped up rumours from TMC forums regarding VIN numbers. Also it smells a little fishy coming from someone who just joined the TMC. Forgive me if I am overly cautios and stepped on someones toes.
     
  5. MSMX2014

    MSMX2014 $ Contributing Member $

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2013
    Messages:
    68
    Location:
    California
    #5 MSMX2014, Dec 6, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2013
    The employee was explaining that an average of 100 people per month per store place an order online at the store for an MS. Would be ideal if another TMC member would go to a Tesla store and try to confirm this information.
     
  6. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2013
    Messages:
    5,383
    Location:
    Delaware
    Possible. However, then you implied that may mean 13,800 'sales' in Q4....that would, IMHO, be impossible. You probably meant well but many of us were burned last ER when we (I) followed VIN assignments and predicted 6-7,000 vehicles produced/delivered. So, we (I) are a little more cautious about production/sales predictions.
     
  7. MSMX2014

    MSMX2014 $ Contributing Member $

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2013
    Messages:
    68
    Location:
    California
    I don't get why you think it smells fishy. Yes, you are being overly cautious. I'm just trying to be helpful and share some information I received direct from a Tesla employee. So what if I just joined. I've also contributed quite a bit of money to TMC. Have you? I'm just providing real information I received from a Tesla employee. Not something I made up. What is sad about this forum is anytime someone provides some sort of 'potential insight' that could be beneficial or directional, then the fear mongers start diminishing. Whether bullish or bearish.

    - - - Updated - - -

    What the Tesla employee said was 100 people per month per store come in and order a Tesla online and pay for it. Either he is flat out lying to me for not gain of his or there is something there. I only shared it to see if anyone else had had a similar experience with a Tesla employee.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I agree with you on the sales. I wish I could confirm it other than hearing it directly from a Tesla employee. At the end of the day the information is as good as the employees integrity. It's just what I was told and thought I would share it to get some feedback because it sure was a surprise.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The Tesla employee explained that people come to the store and order their MS online at the store.
     
  8. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2013
    Messages:
    5,383
    Location:
    Delaware

    First, I thank you for sharing the info. Not doubting your sincerity. I do believe it is possible that 100 people/month/store are ordering online and putting down a $2,500 deposit. That would show strong demand for the car moving forward. Great! What I do not want to have happen is for someone to imply that TM will therefor be seeing revenue of ASP $105,000 for the production and delivery of 13,500 cars in Q4 2013.

    On a lighter note...I hope those will be quarterly delivery/sales numbers by Q3 or Q4 2014.
     
  9. MikeL

    MikeL some guy

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2013
    Messages:
    1,042
    Location:
    Salt Lake City, UTAH USA
    Thurs Nov 28 2013 Tesla employee face to face w me: "we sell about 2 cars per day out of this store". Glad I could help. :smile:
     
  10. Theshadows

    Theshadows Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2013
    Messages:
    1,896
    Location:
    PA
    When I picked up our car two weeks ago I asked about deliveries. I was told that that store is doing 2 deliveries per day and the push at the end of last quarter they were doing up to 5 per day. So 2 per day extrapolated out is 43.3 per month ignoring the end if the quarter push. I think this is a safe number. There was another gentleman there on my delivery day taking delivery as well.
     
  11. MSMX2014

    MSMX2014 $ Contributing Member $

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2013
    Messages:
    68
    Location:
    California
    Thanks for the information! So 60 cars. I was told that 150 cars are sold out of my local store.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Yes, I agree 100%. No revenue predictions here. Just hopefully something that is directional. Even if we cut the math in half to 6,900 cars that crushes Q3.
     
  12. MartinAustin

    MartinAustin Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2013
    Messages:
    1,446
    Location:
    Austin, Texas USA
    I want the stock to go up as much as anyone else, but your information reads like you made it up. How about you identify yourself, or the employee, or the store or city you were in?

    And none of us have heard that Jim Cramer statement. If there is a tweet about it, can you link us to it? (if you can remember where you saw the tweet)
     
  13. Larken

    Larken Member

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2013
    Messages:
    341
    Location:
    Sweden
    Fair enough. Perhaps what I said came out a tad to harsh. However, I just wanted to caution against extrapolating too much on rumours since it can be used against TSLA later if it proves to be not true. Thank you for sharing your experience at the TM showroom.
     
  14. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2013
    Messages:
    5,383
    Location:
    Delaware
    I believe you picked up in Norristown? I was there getting winter snows put on just a couple days ago. While waiting I checked out all the new vehicles waiting for delivery. There were 7
    85s that were to be delivered over the next two days. In addition, the end of quarter push was about to begin. They were looking at 15-20/week last 2-3 weeks of December I was told.
    Not sure that there is anyway to extrapolate that accurately to be useful for our 'short term thread' but thought I would add it to the discussion.
     
  15. MSMX2014

    MSMX2014 $ Contributing Member $

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2013
    Messages:
    68
    Location:
    California
    You can think what you want. The purpose of providing this information is to see if others can confirm it. Giving you my name isn't somehow going to bring credibility. It's odd you asking for my identify. The forum can do what they want with the information. I mean I think I've done pretty well in the stock having purchased at 36 sold at 185 and shorted at 175 the day of Q3 ER. I'm long again on the dip. I trade a minimum of 25,000 shares at a time in TSLA so I'm as invested as anyone here. The Jim Cramer statement was on StockTwits by @SLDTrader. You seem to speak on behalf of the entire TMC community when you "'...say 'none of us' have heard…" is there another thread where everyone on the forum gets together and then appoints someone to speak on their behalf?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Thanks Larken I appreciate it. I agree with you and was reading about the VIN projections and it seemed too good to be true so I understand. I have no way to confirm this is accurate, but the employee seemed authentic and new what he was talking about. Even if I apply the 50% rule and cut it in half the numbers are much higher than Q3.
     
  16. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2013
    Messages:
    1,300
    Location:
    Omaha, NE
    Whatever orders are I am pretty sure deliveries will still be production constrained and I think 600 cars/week is the absolute max end. It also sounds like Tesla is trying to improve quality control and margins more than anything but I guess that is just my feeling from comments I have seen. So, I expect 6,000-7,000 deliveries for sure but certainly not more than 7,000. Personally I think it will be like 6,200 but it is just a guess. OTOH I really don't mind if the stock gets driven up and then pulled down again. Volatility has been good to me so far as I've been mostly selling options and not buying very many.
     
  17. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2012
    Messages:
    3,003
    Location:
    Orange County CA
    we we will know that orders are increasing if the delivery windows grow larger (time between order and delivery). We know that production is constrained to less than 7000 cars in Q4'13.
     
  18. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2013
    Messages:
    1,516
    Location:
    USA
    I think this is more appropriate. The post by MSMX talking 100 per store per month was an employee "blowing smoke" to a possible buyer. Not thinking about the implications of making up a nice story to show customer demand well beyond realistic numbers.

    Take a look at the reservation $total. It went up slightly between Q3 and Q4 (July thru Oct) as reported by the Q3 ER. That means reservations grew at a rate slightly faster than delivery, give or take, but roughly flat. If delivery was 5500 in Q3 then reservation growth by a few million equates to perhaps a reservation rate close to 6000 over the quarter. We'll see more when the hounds are let loose during the Q4 ER.
     
  19. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    2,345
    MSMX2014:
    One of the reasons your posts come under scrutiny is because in the short time you've been on this forum you have changed your name and your story. Up through page 1350 you called yourself Scottcouto . When I pointed out that both your posts were merely complimenting the same poster you changed your name. On page 1350 you claimed to have lost "hundreds of thousands of dollars" when TSLA dropped from 137 to the low 120s. To do so, you would need to own over 12,000 shares and have over a million dollars invested in TSLA. On a later post you claimed to have benefited tremendously from the upward movement of TSLA and wisely sold at a big profit after a huge run up. There is good reason for people on this forum to scrutinize your posts.
     
  20. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2013
    Messages:
    1,859
    Location:
    Chicagoland
    As has been pointed out, you first came here as scottcouto seeking advice and lavishing praise on justthateasy for his bearish comments while deriding those with bullish comments. Then you changed your screen name to MSMX2014. Unfortunately these are common indications on internet message boards of one person possibly speaking to himself as though he were several. justthateasy has disappeared, and after a hiatus you have reappeared with bullish comments. There is little to go on but the word of a poster whose credibility remains low. As a shareholder I welcome bullish commentary, but only from those who have established their credibility through name, reputation or track record. Bearish commentary is also quite acceptable from people of that same ilk.

    Indeed, telling us your name and more about yourself might enhance your credibility. For many years I hosted the daily “Stock Market Observer” program on WCIU-TV in Chicago. Imagine if I had begun interviewing a guest who refused to give his name or affiliations. Then picture him wearing a mask and speaking in a falsetto. Then think of him proceeding to give his opinion of a stock, while asking us to believe claims of hearsay evidence from other unnamed people. Would you find him credible? What would you think of my program and me as host?
     

Share This Page