SC waiting are going to become better/worse in the future?

[Quesder]

Hi all,
as Model 3 production coming within a year, I start to worry about the SC waiting thing.
Most of the city and popular recreation spot Super Charger stations have a long wait time, when I read the SC threads.
Maybe 20 minutes before you can get into a stall.

Model 3 of course will make it worse, but on the other hand Elon promised to build more stations and upgrade the hardware.

So, in total, what do you guess the situation will be? Will SC become less important as people try to learn other charge providers?

 

[Tam]

...the situation will be?

Waiting lines usually happens at peak times such as holidays.

In that case Tesla can also dispatch its portable Superchargers to temporarily relieve congested locations.

Before 300 mile capable Tesla, Las Vegas-Los Angeles owners had to stop by the holiday peaked congested Barstow station but now that you have 335 mile 100D, you can easily skip that station's holiday crowd.

 

[Shock-On-T]

In the long- long-run it will be better, because charging will get quicker and batteries will get bigger. Eventually it will be Mr Fusion and banana peels.

During the M3 rollout there will be a race to deploy SC fast enough. Some geographies will temporarily lose that race and there'll be short term spikes in waiting times.

Your best solution is to leave home with a full(ish) charge.

 

[TexasEV]

You're reading about the handful of stations, mostly in California, that are overcrowded. When that happens Tesla expands it or builds another one on the route to relieve the pressure. You're not reading about the >300 stations in the US that never have a crowd. Chill out.

 

[Troy]

Hi. In Q4 2016, the global Tesla fleet grew by 13.7% and the number of supercharger stalls grew by 13.3%. That means for now Tesla seems to be keeping up with the increase in deliveries. More details can be found in the following thread. I update the data after each quarter.

Tesla Supercharger Stats

 

[Shock-On-T]

And in fact, the number of stalls doesn't have to increase quite as fast as the number of cars.
Only those areas that are 100% utilized need a 1:1 increase. Other sites just increase availability (as opposed to capacity).

 

[slevit1md]

It will almost certainly get worse. I think that Model S/X owners should get dedicated stalls or priority over the 3's, but I'm sure that won't happen.

 

[m2140]

You're reading about the handful of stations, mostly in California, that are overcrowded. When that happens Tesla expands it or builds another one on the route to relieve the pressure. You're not reading about the >300 stations in the US that never have a crowd. Chill out.

While completely true and I agree with you. California is Tesla biggest market. The Model 3 will first roll out to Californians before anyone else. The Supercharger network is already busy in California with most superchargers seeing a short wait on the weekends. As the Model 3 comes out and grows, California we will see those wait times increase. I don't really see Tesla focusing on more Supercharger in California, They are focusing on on building the network so model 3 can go anywhere in the US and increase it's customer base.

Those that live here in Cali will need to deal with planning our trips differently once the model 3 comes out.

I think the bigger issue is going to be service centers. There are not enough service centers to support the current Tesla's on the road. Tesla has barely opened a hand full of service centers in the last year yet sales have mode than doubled. By the time the model 3 comes out, Tesla could see a lot of negative feedback from new owners having to wait months for service at what are already busy service centers.

 

[Blu Zap]

Ya, this is a dicey situation, especially here in NorCal. We all know the facts that will continue to drive SC demand. At this point there are 6 SCs in the SF Bay Area. 4 of them are pretty full when you get there. Depending on time of day and day of the week, there will be a cue. I have seen cues of over 6 vehicles. So, suffice to say, things are getting worse. On the good news side they are adding SCs. I.e. they are putting in 12- 20 SC stations a couple miles down the road from the Fremont Factory. The big delay on new or expanded SCs is the permits from local government. So a bit out of TM control.
Nothing beats having home charging. Get it if you can. Although my landlord sold my house with the charger. So living off public charging. It works out.

 

[Quesder]

Ya, this is a dicey situation, especially here in NorCal. We all know the facts that will continue to drive SC demand. At this point there are 6 SCs in the SF Bay Area. 4 of them are pretty full when you get there. Depending on time of day and day of the week, there will be a cue. I have seen cues of over 6 vehicles. So, suffice to say, things are getting worse. On the good news side they are adding SCs. I.e. they are putting in 12- 20 SC stations a couple miles down the road from the Fremont Factory. The big delay on new or expanded SCs is the permits from local government. So a bit out of TM control.
Nothing beats having home charging. Get it if you can. Although my landlord sold my house with the charger. So living off public charging. It works out.

Thanks for post things that justifies (?) my change from 90D to 100D and giving up FUSC.