I'm cautiously optimistic about some of the changes coming soon. The cars with the new hardware are stuck on 5.14. I understand that they implemented the minimal changes for lane departure and speed detection in the older software and didn't carry them into 6.0, so it will take a 6.0 refresh. But it also makes sense to me that if they didn't see these changes coming soon, they would have made the 6.x refresh for the new cars. Selling them and keeping them on 5.14 doesn't seem like a good strategy, so I'm going with the notion that they didn't come up with a 6.0 for the new hardware since they thought it would be a waste with new 6.x software with announced features weeks or days away. I'm hoping that they had delayed the announcement until the software was viable, since they clearly didn't have a press conference when the hardware hit the streets. Otherwise, why didn't they have the announcement weeks earlier, and release the software when they got to it?
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Schedule for Autopilot features
- Thread starter si123ca
- Start date
The new hardware features enabling autopilot are very tempting, and if Tesla provides a reasonable trade-in program, would be tempted to trade in my early VIN P85 for a new car with the autopilot hardware.
BUT...
We shouldn't expect to see the autopilot software features quickly. There are major software features promised since I placed the order for my car that haven't yet been delivered. Features such as the App Store, new browser, significantly improved navigation software, ... And basic features in much less expensive cars, such as media playback (playlists!) and smartphone integration (text messages, ...) are still missing.
The software features will come out - but, based on Tesla's track record for software releases, it will probably not be as fast as they or their owners would like to see...
BUT...
We shouldn't expect to see the autopilot software features quickly. There are major software features promised since I placed the order for my car that haven't yet been delivered. Features such as the App Store, new browser, significantly improved navigation software, ... And basic features in much less expensive cars, such as media playback (playlists!) and smartphone integration (text messages, ...) are still missing.
The software features will come out - but, based on Tesla's track record for software releases, it will probably not be as fast as they or their owners would like to see...
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Actually, they did upgrade the browser with 6.0. It's just that it now sucks slightly less than it did before. Still very slow (as opposed to excruciatingly slow) and buggy (new and improved, now with slightly less bugs!).
Given what I've seen of Tesla's software efforts, I would give their car software and IT software (their corporate web site) teams a 'C' grade.
My prediction with Autopilot is that it'll be closer to six+ months from now (like April 2015) before we see any of it, it'll be rolled out slowly in pieces, and fancy features like self parking will take until late 2016 or never get released, and finally, it'll have so many issues that many people will just not use it.
I hope I'm wrong.
Given what I've seen of Tesla's software efforts, I would give their car software and IT software (their corporate web site) teams a 'C' grade.
My prediction with Autopilot is that it'll be closer to six+ months from now (like April 2015) before we see any of it, it'll be rolled out slowly in pieces, and fancy features like self parking will take until late 2016 or never get released, and finally, it'll have so many issues that many people will just not use it.
I hope I'm wrong.
Don't forget valet mode.
I really like listening to Elon's presentations, but I think that we all now should recognize that unless you can really really see it in production, don't count on it any time soon. It is all in the wish list and "what if" category (for sales and the market) which probably won't make it to production. What was demoed for autopilot is probably going to be it for a long time.
I would have said just "see it" but the battery swap business made me add "in production".
I really like listening to Elon's presentations, but I think that we all now should recognize that unless you can really really see it in production, don't count on it any time soon. It is all in the wish list and "what if" category (for sales and the market) which probably won't make it to production. What was demoed for autopilot is probably going to be it for a long time.
I would have said just "see it" but the battery swap business made me add "in production".
And you should also apply this to any other high-tech item you purchase. Always buy based on the features delivered. If more come later, that's great, but if they don't it won't be a disappointment.
I would also add: trust and quality is a component as well.
Buying new-to-the-brand and new-to-the-industry features has an additional risk. If you trust the brand to build high quality products, then you're more likely to accept that the risk is mitigated. "A good risk."
In some ways, Tesla has tarnished the brand w/r/t to "completeness" and "timeliness" of their feature offerings. I'm not saying this to complain but rather to set expectations.
Self Park sounds pretty easy to me (writes the programmer who wouldn't be able to program it), since it's "move the car into that space there and whatever you do don't hit anything, more haste less speed".
As for buying or not buying, unless you'd be forced into buying a different car, why leap ahead when you can tell them you'll buy once a feature is implemented and give them a financial incentive to complete the feature.
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green1
Active Member
If ford can equip it on their low end vehicles, I would hope that Tesla can figure it out...
Gizmotoy
Active Member
I think what was being referred to was the mention during the announcement that you'd drop your car off on private property and tell it to go find a parking spot, and the inverse of signaling the car to leave its parking spot and come pick you up.
Certainly I don't know of any manufacturer with such a self parking feature. Definitely not the suggested low end Ford models.
Ordered P85D, December delivery.
Was told by multiple folks that the demoed features would be available in "several months" with some available at delivery.
The website design studio also says that "It will take several months for all features to be completed and uploaded to cars."
Time will tell. If nothing else, I'll have a sweet AWD car with nearly 700 HP...
Was told by multiple folks that the demoed features would be available in "several months" with some available at delivery.
The website design studio also says that "It will take several months for all features to be completed and uploaded to cars."
Time will tell. If nothing else, I'll have a sweet AWD car with nearly 700 HP...
green1
Active Member
Somewhat my fault, I was possibly confusing two different features. Some people have discussed automated parallel parking, which many new cars do (including low end fords) which is separate from what Elon talked about where the car goes and parks in your garage.
For that one... well, honestly I wouldn't hold my breath, there's just so many issues there to be addressed that I don't expect to actually see it for a very long time. (he said it had to be on private property, so it will be unmapped roads, likely without lines or signage, and you're asking it to do way more than anything we've seen demoed to this point.)
Will it happen, probably, timeline? years, minimum.
Vger
Active Member
Having led and run an image-analysis research and development group (in medical imaging), I can say that trying to hold Tesla to any schedule here, especially for the more exotic leap-frog features, is unrealistic. This is cutting-edge R&D. It will require fundamental new algorithms and well as highly-optimized application of known algorithms. This type of work is very difficult to predict the progress rate of. Sometimes you stumble on a solution in a flash, sometimes you beat your head against the wall for months.
What is great is that they are committed to it and can realistically deliver it in phases, so we will see updates several times a year, for years to come, I am sure.
What is great is that they are committed to it and can realistically deliver it in phases, so we will see updates several times a year, for years to come, I am sure.
Having ordered a loaded P85D, I must say that the autopilot features are a must in the short term in order to maintain some good faith here.
I've been told by several reps and it is stated on the order page that the features will be available in "several months." This to me translates to functionality equal to that which was demoed on Thursday no later than Q2 2015. I will actually be quite displeased if this is not the case, and will make it known to them at that time.
They're advertising the car as including Autopilot. This is what they're selling. I don't mind waiting a short time for this to be a reality, but, I trust that they wouldn't be selling it if this were going to be substantially delayed. Hopefully that trust is not misplaced.
I've been told by several reps and it is stated on the order page that the features will be available in "several months." This to me translates to functionality equal to that which was demoed on Thursday no later than Q2 2015. I will actually be quite displeased if this is not the case, and will make it known to them at that time.
They're advertising the car as including Autopilot. This is what they're selling. I don't mind waiting a short time for this to be a reality, but, I trust that they wouldn't be selling it if this were going to be substantially delayed. Hopefully that trust is not misplaced.
Well put. I also see "several months" as being less than a year. While I understand that they're not making a firm commitment, I think it'll do Tesla's credibility a lot of good if they can get most of the promised features done (ie, enabled in customers' cars via s/w updates) by Q2/Q3 2015.
We've heard "the hardware is out there now" and we see the new features as part of the order screen now. For people who have the new hardware, there was no promise. For people who first ordered within the past few days, there was a promise, but they won't get their cars until December. So people with the new hardware who are stuck on 5.14 might be disappointed, and might have a realistic expectation of getting the 6.0 features that were announced before their cars were delivered, but weren't promised the new features when they bought the cars. So it would be disappointing not to get any of the features until December but wouldn't constitute any misleading marketing or advertising. On the other hand not having the calendar feature or the ability to name the car would be seen as Tesla not living up to their claims. Those were announced as ready before cars were delivered with the new hardware.
Since Tesla has a working 6.0 with the new features, they should be able to make it available for download now, even if they disable certain parts. Having something that works is one thing. Having something that works and brings up the correct release notes and the correct pages in the manual is another thing. The latter isn't a requirement to demo the system, but is a requirement to release it. The demo was on a precise course. It's possible that they know of areas where it works and ones where it doesn't, but knew that the fixed course wouldn't deviate from the 100% working subset. For anything else, it could be anything from screen glitches to failing to recognize shades of yellow used on painted lines in Nebraska. We can't tell what needs to be worked out, but from looking at the job listings that have been out there in the past, we do know that they hired people who were already experienced in the areas that are well tested on other vehicles. So for blind spot detection, ACC, collision avoidance, and well proven features, I would hope they could get them out the door soon.
They didn't mind releasing 5.14 with documentation for the lane departure and speed limit features, but with the wrong cruise control stem pictured and documented, or releasing either 5.14 with those features or 6.0 without the corresponding release notes on the website as they promised, so who knows?
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They have to give owners some version soon, because they did make a specific promise. Some version of 6.0 is overdue for people with the new hardware and I'd be surprised if they added only the 6.0 features they already released since the version they demoed is what they were working on instead of the limited subset. If they want to get something OTA right way, it's a matter of what to disable.
Since Tesla has a working 6.0 with the new features, they should be able to make it available for download now, even if they disable certain parts. Having something that works is one thing. Having something that works and brings up the correct release notes and the correct pages in the manual is another thing. The latter isn't a requirement to demo the system, but is a requirement to release it. The demo was on a precise course. It's possible that they know of areas where it works and ones where it doesn't, but knew that the fixed course wouldn't deviate from the 100% working subset. For anything else, it could be anything from screen glitches to failing to recognize shades of yellow used on painted lines in Nebraska. We can't tell what needs to be worked out, but from looking at the job listings that have been out there in the past, we do know that they hired people who were already experienced in the areas that are well tested on other vehicles. So for blind spot detection, ACC, collision avoidance, and well proven features, I would hope they could get them out the door soon.
They didn't mind releasing 5.14 with documentation for the lane departure and speed limit features, but with the wrong cruise control stem pictured and documented, or releasing either 5.14 with those features or 6.0 without the corresponding release notes on the website as they promised, so who knows?
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They have to give owners some version soon, because they did make a specific promise. Some version of 6.0 is overdue for people with the new hardware and I'd be surprised if they added only the 6.0 features they already released since the version they demoed is what they were working on instead of the limited subset. If they want to get something OTA right way, it's a matter of what to disable.
"you'd drop your car off on private property and tell it to go find a parking spot":
"and the inverse of signaling the car to leave its parking spot and come pick you up":
You were saying?
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Gizmotoy
Active Member
To be fair, I just said I didn't know of any.
Though after looking at what Audi calls Piloted Parking, it's not going to be a production feature anytime soon, either (the 2015 A8 announcements so far show an absence of the Piloted Parking feature). Making demo videos are one thing, but overcoming the technical and legal obstacles are another. No one is selling a car that can do this.
For example: their system requires the car park to have a vehicle management system the car can talk to. The car asks for a spot and the car park provides a route to the parking spot.
That is not going to be a feasible requirement. Having the car find the spot itself brings a whole host of new issues (like reading and reacting to the text on the parking spot signs, traveling up/down levels, etc.).
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mspohr
Well-Known Member
I should point out the the Autopilot features were successfully demonstrated to everyone who took a ride in the demo cars at the unveiling. The car successfully followed a meandering lane, adjusted speed by reading speed limit signs, changed lanes with a flick of the turn signal and stopped when the car in front stopped.
This would suggest that these features are nearly ready for release.
This would suggest that these features are nearly ready for release.
Nearly ready is not ready though.
For me personally, until the feature is available and I've actually been able to play with it on a test drive, Im not gonna buy a new car based on it coming "in the future"
This is basically why I sold my 2013 P85 and bought an S550. Paying for gas sucks though
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