Score now 99 - do you get FSD Beta now or next cycle?

[Sigma4Life]

Unfortunately it appears no one new is getting into the beta these days. The majority of existing beta testers still haven’t received the latest 10.9 release.

I’ve been babysitting a 98 score since Jan 3 and still no beta invite.

 

[Gogreen108]

I have a safety score of 99 for the past 20 days. No FSD yet.

 

[preilly44]

Hopefully all of us 98 and 99's get accepted into the beta with 10.10

 

[Hamilton237]

Another 99 checking in. I'm not optimistic about getting the beta in the next couple weeks. As part of the recall for removing the rolling stop behavior they call out S/W version 2021.40.30.15. Figure that would be 10.9.1 (?) or similar sub version rev to just remove that feature. This probably set them back a bit. I'm already on 2022.4, so I expect I'll be waiting for a 2022.4 or 2022.8 version of the FSD code.

 

[Sigma4Life]

Another 99 checking in. I'm not optimistic about getting the beta in the next couple weeks. As part of the recall for removing the rolling stop behavior they call out S/W version 2021.40.30.15. Figure that would be 10.9.1 (?) or similar sub version rev to just remove that feature. This probably set them back a bit. I'm already on 2022.4, so I expect I'll be waiting for a 2022.4 or 2022.8 version of the FSD code.

I’m in the same boat as you, except with a 98. The recall stated 2021.40.30.15 or later, so it’s possible the next beta update could be 2022.4.1 or something and we all get in and celebrate.

 

[JPed]

I’m in the same boat as you, except with a 98. The recall stated 2021.40.30.15 or later, so it’s possible the next beta update could be 2022.4.1 or something and we all get in and celebrate.

Make room in that Boat! I've been rocking a 99 since January 5th and bumped up to a 100 two weeks ago and nothing...It's super stressful trying to keep the score up while we wait.

 

[acat]

98 not working here?

 

[unclebnz]

99 and still no FSD. The suspense is killing me. Im afraid to drive the car

 

[acat]

99 and still no FSD. The suspense is killing me. Im afraid to drive the car

On the same boat, driving like a flasky student driver

 

[djvip510]

I currently have 100, have had it for over 3 weeks and still no FSD

 

[MickY]

What's anyone's guess of how many of us in the US are waiting for BETA?

Some estimates, please correct (they´re probably very wrong)

There are about 1M Teslas on the road (USA)
Of those, I'm guessing 500k have suitable hardware for FSD
Of those 500k, only about 20% have purchased FDS (100k cars).
Of those 100k, 60k have already gotten BETA
Of the remaining 40k, how many do you think have requested and are still waiting for BETA?

My best guess would be the majority of these 40k have signed up and are waiting for BETA . (logic is, if you already spent the money on FSD, you'd want to try BETA, I think)

 

[JPed]

What's anyone's guess of how many of us in the US are waiting for BETA?

Some estimates, please correct (they´re probably very wrong)

There are about 1M Teslas on the road (USA)
Of those, I'm guessing 500k have suitable hardware for FSD
Of those 500k, only about 20% have purchased FDS (100k cars).
Of those 100k, 60k have already gotten BETA
Of the remaining 40k, how many do you think have requested and are still waiting for BETA?

My best guess would be the majority of these 40k have signed up and are waiting for BETA . (logic is, if you already spent the money on FSD, you'd want to try BETA, I think)

When Musk released “the button” he said they were expecting to onboard ~1,000 people a week and they would slowly lower the score bringing in more people. It’s obvious they underestimated the determination of nerds like us to play the new “Safety Score” game to let us have access to something we’ve already paid thousands of dollars for. The 60,000 currently in would have taken a year at that rate. It’s obviously not like a few months ago where a good score for seven days gets you in, they’ve raised the bar, with that said, I have friends that paid for FSD that aren’t even trying to get in because A) FSD beta isn’t really good yet and B) It’s not worth driving like a grandma when you have the most fun vehicle in the world. That leaves us, the last dedicated nerds driving on pins and needles waiting to join with what ever non communicated rules are in place now.

 

[Mardak]

Of those 100k, 60k have already gotten BETA

Back in October at 2021Q3 earnings call, Tesla said they had 150k with Safety Score, and those were probably almost all for FSD Beta as Texas Insurance was only just launching. Tesla has 150,000 cars using its safety score tool – TechCrunch

It's been 16 weeks since then and "rolling stops" recall affected ~54k vehicles, so Tesla has enrolled on average ~3.5k/week to FSD Beta with Safety Score of 97+. So looking at "early adopters" distribution before FSD Beta 10.2:

It seems like the majority of that audience likely has FSD Beta already although the majority of those who pushed the button are still waiting.

 

[Raurele]

What's anyone's guess of how many of us in the US are waiting for BETA?

Some estimates, please correct (they´re probably very wrong)

There are about 1M Teslas on the road (USA)
Of those, I'm guessing 500k have suitable hardware for FSD
Of those 500k, only about 20% have purchased FDS (100k cars).
Of those 100k, 60k have already gotten BETA
Of the remaining 40k, how many do you think have requested and are still waiting for BETA?

My best guess would be the majority of these 40k have signed up and are waiting for BETA . (logic is, if you already spent the money on FSD, you'd want to try BETA, I think)

20% have FSD? Lol nope. Probably 8-10%. And most people will honestly fail the score part then quit the queue. Follow any Facebook group about it and it’s amazing how many people can’t get above 80% and complain that it’s rigged. I’m guessing about 6-8k people at the MOST

 

[MickY]

When Musk released “the button” he said they were expecting to onboard ~1,000 people a week and they would slowly lower the score bringing in more people. It’s obvious they underestimated the determination of nerds like us to play the new “Safety Score” game to let us have access to something we’ve already paid thousands of dollars for. The 60,000 currently in would have taken a year at that rate. It’s obviously not like a few months ago where a good score for seven days gets you in, they’ve raised the bar, with that said, I have friends that paid for FSD that aren’t even trying to get in because A) FSD beta isn’t really good yet and B) It’s not worth driving like a grandma when you have the most fun vehicle in the world. That leaves us, the last dedicated nerds driving on pins and needles waiting to join with what ever non communicated rules are in place now.

Ah, yes, good point. even if the majority of owners with FDS initially signed up for BETA, we probably lost many of these when they didn't get beta right away and got fed up with the score thing.

So it must be just a handful of us ( few thousand perhaps?) who continue enduring the safety score week after week in hope that the FDS team will grant us BETA.

60k already in BETA, what's another 5-10k?

I wonder how many of the 60k in BETA are actually using it.

I reckon many BETA testers don't actually do testing (got BETA disabled) after trying it a few times.

It would be great for those who have BETA but don't use to opt out, so that the count of current testers goes down and this encourages Tesla to grant BETA to new testers.

 

[Yelobird]

Ah, yes, good point. even if the majority of owners with FDS initially signed up for BETA, we probably lost many of these when they didn't get beta right away and got fed up with the score thing.

So it must be just a handful of us ( few thousand perhaps?) who continue enduring the safety score week after week in hope that the FDS team will grant us BETA.

60k already in BETA, what's another 5-10k?

I wonder how many of the 60k in BETA are actually using it.

I reckon many BETA testers don't actually do testing (got BETA disabled) after trying it a few times.

It would be great for those who have BETA but don't use to opt out, so that the count of current testers goes down and this encourages Tesla to grant BETA to new testers.

There has been 0 confirmation only speculation that Tesla is not adding new testers. They have clearly paused All updates so I doubt there is any conspiracy or end of program.

 

[Raurele]

There has been 0 confirmation only speculation that Tesla is not adding new testers. They have clearly paused All updates so I doubt there is any conspiracy or end of program.

there's no conspiracy or confirmation, but the fact that not one persons been accepted since Christmas update, means you can say its indefinitely paused...

 

[EVchiq]

What's anyone's guess of how many of us in the US are waiting for BETA?

Some estimates, please correct (they´re probably very wrong)

There are about 1M Teslas on the road (USA)
Of those, I'm guessing 500k have suitable hardware for FSD
Of those 500k, only about 20% have purchased FDS (100k cars).
Of those 100k, 60k have already gotten BETA
Of the remaining 40k, how many do you think have requested and are still waiting for BETA?

My best guess would be the majority of these 40k have signed up and are waiting for BETA . (logic is, if you already spent the money on FSD, you'd want to try BETA, I think)

I had my car for 2 months before opting in. A lot of people are choosing to wait until the FSD is no longer beta

 

[JulienW]

....A lot of people are choosing to wait until the FSD is no longer beta

Might want to will it to your children then.

 

[JPed]

Ah, yes, good point. even if the majority of owners with FDS initially signed up for BETA, we probably lost many of these when they didn't get beta right away and got fed up with the score thing.

So it must be just a handful of us ( few thousand perhaps?) who continue enduring the safety score week after week in hope that the FDS team will grant us BETA.

60k already in BETA, what's another 5-10k?

I wonder how many of the 60k in BETA are actually using it.

I reckon many BETA testers don't actually do testing (got BETA disabled) after trying it a few times.

It would be great for those who have BETA but don't use to opt out, so that the count of current testers goes down and this encourages Tesla to grant BETA to new testers.

Anecdotally I know one person who’s in FSD Beta and doesn’t use it because in their own experience, it’s not a great experience. I’ve heard similar things from YouTubers (hyperchange). I suspect it may be like my experience with autopilot (or even cruise control) on a two lane road…unusable. This might not be the right thread for this but does anyone else get phantom breaking like crazy on two lane highways? I’ve given up on all of Tesla drivers assist software on my road to work because it phantom breaks for EVERY SINGLE big truck oncoming in the opposite lane…even on cruise control. Sigh. Hoping FSD would be better but I guess I’ll have to wait to find out.