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Second Battery Supplier

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Yuri_G, Aug 27, 2013.

  1. Yuri_G

    Yuri_G Member

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    Looks like Tesla is moving closer and closer to securing an additional battery supplier.



    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20130825000207
     
  2. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    Great find Yuri! Re-posted your comment in the short term price movement thread. When this is announced i think it may hugely impact the stock.
     
  3. StapleGun

    StapleGun Member

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    Awesome news! So how long would it take before Tesla actually starts to see these batteries rolling into Fremont in volume? I would imagine that once they are qualified Samsung would still need to do some retooling for the specific chemistries and design of Tesla's cells. Additionally Tesla would need to do quite a bit of testing on their end with packs using the Samsung cells. I would be pleased if this helps raise production numbers by the end of this year.

    Thinking optimistically, is it possible this has been in the works for much longer than we've known about it? Maybe within a month Samsung will be providing half of Tesla's new batteries, and with their largest constraint out of the way they can finish the year at a 40k/yr pace.
     
  4. Buran

    Buran Member

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    With regard to testing this should absolutely be very advance. Remember that Tesla have publicly stated that they have qualified 2 different supplyers since long. So you are right that this has probably been in the works. I can't imagine that Tesla would be on the verge of ordering large number of units without knowing that the cells are ok in principle. However, if the newsitem is correct, they are now doing final testing of life time, I would say with actual packs used in real world settings. This would take quite some time, certainly more than a month, as you would in principle want to run a significant number of packs in test beds and on the road over the publicly stated guaranteed lifetime of the pack etc. Then shipping of cells takes a month or two with all the time lags, not to mention the tooling on Samsungs part. We are talking about a total time lag of 6M minimum I would say. Remember that the Panasonic deal was made years in advance of production (although this time it will certainly be faster).All this, together with the fact that nothing in information form Tesla or reported VINs point at deliveries much in excess of the guidance of 21000 (a couple of thousand extra is certainly possible but not more) and that Elon have repeatedly said that it is only next year that they will be able to test demand, and ease the supply constraints (there are more parts constrained then the cells) makes deliveries of 40k this year just hype. Sorry to be so blunt, but the information is not there to justify even optimistic speculation of such figures this year.My optimistic scenario is for exiting the year with an annual run rate of +25000 units, exiting half year 2014 with 35000 (cells are at this point avaliable for 40000 but it takes time to get the line up and running at designed 2 shift times 20000 units), and only exiting 2014 with 40000 units. Not also that at this point, competition with model X in producition capacity is starting to emerge unless they go to 3 shifts (which is difficult and quite voulnerable with just one line) and I would expxt that if demand is there for 40000 units, they will start deploying or announce a second final assembly line for more flexibility sometimes late next year, and that both these are able to switch in and out of S and X, EU, US etc if need be.
     
  5. StapleGun

    StapleGun Member

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    Didn't they already pass the 25k/year run rate in June? 500/wk for 50 weeks in the year would be 25k. If their goal is to ship 40k next year they will need to exit this year MUCH higher than 25k/year, otherwise they would be exiting the year at a 55k rate to balance it out.
     
  6. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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  7. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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    Had to look up flow battery on Wikipedia. Here is a quote:
    "Flow batteries can be rapidly "recharged" by replacing the electrolyte liquid (in a similar way to refilling fuel tanks for internal combustion engines) while simultaneously recovering the spent material for re-energization."

    This could be nice for long distance travel though in a hybrid battery setup. Still there would be the need for extensive tank swapping and/or liquid exchange infrastructure which certainly is not as cheap as superchargers.
     
  8. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    Not saying we should diss anything developped by a company with GM's resources, but there are a dozen miracle batteries like that in various stages of development. The beauty of Tesla's technology is that it is available today. I am sure they are not standing still either.
     
  9. Buran

    Buran Member

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    (This is perhaps becoming of topic, mods, feel free to move this) Production wise they have had 500 units / w capability for a while but not continuously, which is what we are talking about in order to work out actual yearly production. They also operate not 50 weeks but rather 48 weeks tops, they have had at least 1 week of per Q so far, for vacation and retooling, and since they are batching heavily between e.g. EU and US there is probably some additional weeks that don't run at 500 / w. So in total that is rather 23000 / year run rate this summer, and target of 25000 by year end annual run rate is quite realistic. My estimate is that they actually have been able to produce 500 / w since march this year, but they have not done so all the time, and they have instead aimed at reducing extra time, and get out 500 per week on 2 shifts, without weekends etc, which is gradually happening.

    With regard to production and deliveries 2014: They have never said that they aim for 40k deliveries next year, or do you have a source for that? My understanding, and what I wrote about, is annualized run rates. That is, total deliveries next year is not targeted at 40k, but rather the average of entering the year at 25k and exiting at 40k run rate, that is, on the order of 35k deliveries in 2014.
     
  10. rabar10

    rabar10 FFE until Model 3

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    Same news that Yuri found over a week ago came out on Reuters today: Reuters: Tesla in talks with Samsung SDI for battery supply deal

     

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