Seems like Tesla is getting ready to release some thing big

[Julie's MS]

Was hoping they would be switching over to the new 2170 Battery cells. In order to stream line production and lower costs. Does not make sense to be manufacturing 2 different types. Especially when the new cells found in their Model 3 and Power Walls seem to be superior.

I also understand the new 2170 Battery cells would allow Tesla to increase range of the Model S & X.

It seems like they might be having some issues according to reports. This would explain why we have not see the new battery packs yet.


Tesla’s Problem—Model 3 Batteries: Oppenheimer

'Real Concern' for EV Maker Is Quality of 2170 Battery Cells
Oppenheimer's note works to negate the buzz generated by news of Musk's plans to boost production to 6,000 Model 3s per week by June, driving growth by adding 400 employees per week and starting 24/7 operations.

"The real concern for us ultimately is how many batteries they can make that fit the specs," said Rusch on CNBC. He indicated that Tesla faces quality issues with the 2170 battery cells, which are made specifically for the Model 3 and are not used in its other cars. "We think that is the real bottleneck here," he added. (See also: Excessive Automation at Tesla Was a Mistake: Musk.)



Read more: Tesla’s Problem—Model 3 Batteries: Oppenheimer | Investopedia Tesla’s Problem—Model 3 Batteries: Oppenheimer













https://twitter.com/RobertoFerris

 

[TaoJones]

There’s no way Tesla is going to stop US deliveries for several weeks just to hit 200k after July 1.

Well, gosh, it’s a good thing nobody has suggested that then.

It is, however, critical for Tesla to hit 200,000 domestic as early in Q3 as possible to maximize that one-time advantage for their customers. Elon has confirmed this. Neverminding this is the same guy who said line waiters would get something special and the same guy who said a dozen other things that haven’t been accurate. However, as of now, he has in fact said it *and* he’s not yet screwed it up.

I believe they will simply execute more Canadian deliveries in Q2 to achieve the 200,001st US delivery during the week of July 2nd.

IF he actually executes to plan and nails it July 1st, then I may send him a proper bottle of vintage ale. Perfect for rooftop fireside enjoyment.

 

[Bebop]

Still waiting for EAP.

 

[henderrj]

Was hoping they would be switching over to the new 2170 Battery cells. In order to stream line production and lower costs. Does not make sense to be manufacturing 2 different types. Especially when the new cells found in their Model 3 and Power Walls seem to be superior.

We discussed this extensively some time ago. You won't see 2170s in the larger vehicles for at least another year I'm afraid. And, there's virtually no Advantage. A tiny bit due to the better form factor but chemistry makes a bigger difference. You can read more than you want here: Why Model S/X will not see 2170 cells any time soon.

 

[Cosmacelf]

At some point, Tesla will redesign the Model S from the ground up, using whatever new batteries they have then, but right now, the car seems to be selling well enough.

 

[croman]

They are not pushing 2018.14.2 to US AP2. Something is up for sure.

 

[nuclearfusion]

There’s no way Tesla is going to stop US deliveries for several weeks just to hit 200k after July 1. That would be the opposite of what Tesla is trying to do right now. Especially with so many June deliveries built up from the model X/S line and trying to hit 6k per week for model 3.

Why not? It makes perfect sense to channel deliveries into Canada, for example, so that achieving the 200k mark is pushed into the next quarter thereby maximising the number of customers able to use the US tax credit. If they could reach 5000 to 6000 Model 3 per week about the same time they achieve the best outcome for the most Model 3 customers.

 

[bhzmark]

Why not? It makes perfect sense to channel deliveries into Canada, for example, so that achieving the 200k mark is pushed into the next quarter thereby maximising the number of customers able to use the US tax credit. If they could reach 5000 to 6000 Model 3 per week about the same time they achieve the best outcome for the most Model 3 customers.

I’d like them to maximize tax credits also but it would seem unwise to leave all the delivery center people and other assets idle while doing non-US deliveries. that just doesn’t seem a good use of resources . They need to maximize total revenue all the time and that probably means keeping their US deliveries as active as possible . Maybe if it’s a really close call and they can pause for just a few days at the end of the quarter they might entertain that idea under the theory that it would generate even more revenue in an additional subsequent quarter of the full tax credit.

 

[f3honda4me]

Why not? It makes perfect sense to channel deliveries into Canada, for example, so that achieving the 200k mark is pushed into the next quarter thereby maximising the number of customers able to use the US tax credit. If they could reach 5000 to 6000 Model 3 per week about the same time they achieve the best outcome for the most Model 3 customers.

Because Tesla really has nothing to gain. On the other hand they are shafting customers in the US who have waited months or years, who could otherwise have their car delivered to them. To me that is a bigger business risk and customer service risk than the alternative of some model 3 owners missing out on an extra $3750.

But it’s all speculation either way. But for those waiting, I would not count on the full $7500 after October 1 of this year though. If Tesla keeps current pace they will hit 200k by June 1. If they ramp up model 3 even more then it could be even earlier.

 

[nuclearfusion]

Because Tesla really has nothing to gain. On the other hand they are shafting customers in the US who have waited months or years, who could otherwise have their car delivered to them. To me that is a bigger business risk and customer service risk than the alternative of some model 3 owners missing out on an extra $3750.

But it’s all speculation either way. But for those waiting, I would not count on the full $7500 after October 1 of this year though. If Tesla keeps current pace they will hit 200k by June 1. If they ramp up model 3 even more then it could be even earlier.

As you say, it's all speculation either way as the relevant numbers won't be known for quite some time.
However my understanding is that it is US deliveries rather than production that counts. Finessing deliveries to push the 200k into July would make roughly an extra 65,000 + customers eligible for the credit (assuming combined M3, S and X production of around 5000 per week by July). Invitations to configure and allocation of VINs need not slow, only delivery. 65,000 + happy customers might trump small delivery delays for a small number of customers already invited to configure and already allocated VINs - but if the ramp goes well and we were talking say 20,000 + undelivered cars everything changes.
As you say, it's all speculation.

 

[f3honda4me]

As you say, it's all speculation either way as the relevant numbers won't be known for quite some time.
However my understanding is that it is US deliveries rather than production that counts. Finessing deliveries to push the 200k into July would make roughly an extra 65,000 + customers eligible for the credit (assuming combined M3, S and X production of around 5000 per week by July). Invitations to configure and allocation of VINs need not slow, only delivery. 65,000 + happy customers might trump small delivery delays for a small number of customers already invited to configure and already allocated VINs - but if the ramp goes well and we were talking say 20,000 + undelivered cars everything changes.
As you say, it's all speculation.

Yep I think we agree.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

At some point, Tesla will redesign the Model S from the ground up, using whatever new batteries they have then, but right now, the car seems to be selling well enough.

Actually, Model X/S deliveries are flat from year ago. IOW no growth of those lines. Tesla needs to do something.

 

[TaoJones]

Actually, Model X/S deliveries are flat from year ago. IOW no growth of those lines. Tesla needs to do something.

Well... don't you figure that given the current givens, flat is good?

Model 3 cannibalization.
CPO maturity and therefore more erosion of new sales.
Even that miserable Bolt probably siphoned off a few hundred otherwise likely buyers.

So in the face of all of that, and not to promulgate the Kool Aid, but I'd take flat over the doom and gloom prognostications of certain analysts from a year ago.

Tesla does need to do something. Deliver an orificeload of Model 3s with a focus upon domestic delivery in Qs 3 and 4 to leverage the tax credit, then introduce the base model in 2019.

And along the way, it would be nice to get someone hired to replace Jerome (JonMc, we hardly knew ye) who can give Service the consistency it needs mas rapido.

 

[pkodali]

Actually, Model X/S deliveries are flat from year ago. IOW no growth of those lines. Tesla needs to do something.

Pretty sure that is because of manufacturing capacity. their waitlist right now is very long, longer than usual

 

[nuclearfusion]

... It seems like they might be having some issues according to reports. This would explain why we have not see the new battery packs yet. ...

Absolutely nothing to do with battery quality issues. That Oppenheimer report is really sad. You have to ask what motivates that sort of "fake news". The truth is the exact opposite.
The previously revealed battery production problems were diagnosed and resolved. As for quality, the quality of the Model 3 battery far exceeds anything available from any other manufacturer, according to Sandy Munro from Munro Associates.
For his objective in-depth analysis of the Model 3 battery look at his recent Autoline Network interview. (Autoline Network). Munro Associates bought and completely reverse engineered a Model 3 doing rigorous tests of the build and of every component. They were not complementary of the build (although in Tesla's defence it was an early model car) but they simply raved about the battery and the electronics. Of the battery Munro said (at 31:50) "... we did a check to find out what the differential between each one of these batteries was ... and the difference was 0.2 milliamps. Holy!! Nobody can balance batteries that close. Nobody! Nobody's ever done that ... " After discussing each major battery manufacturer in turn, another panel member says " ... and now Tesla trumps all of them!" Munro replies "That's right". Later he says (from 36:10) " ... this one's totally different (Model 3) battery and that's why I say ... anybody that ignores, anybody in the car industry who ignores this car is doing it at their own peril. ... This is big stuff. This is not an inching up. This is revolutionary verses - evolutionary was the old stuff - this is revolutionary and everybody else is sitting there twiddling their thumbs. ..."

 

[R.S]

It could also be that a lot of developers were working on getting the Model 3 systems up and running, who are now being returned to other projects.

Like designing the Model Y, Semi and Roadster 2?