Self-Driving Car: Is it a big deal?

[djplong]

General availability could be centuries away, if ever. Driving a car on existing infrastructure is far too complex an activity for existing technology.

Driving a car under current circumstances I think involves a lot of what humans are naturally good at but computers are not. People assume if they can do it pretty easy, a computer should be able to as well. But that's not the case. Take speech and facial recognition as examples. It has taken those technologies a long time to develop, and they are still prone to error. But humans do it without even thinking about it. Driving a car is much more difficult, and comes with the risk of killing people if it's done wrong. I just don't see it happening any time soon.

Centuries? We've come a LONG way in very FEW years. You DO know that there are cars out there that beat the DARPA Grand Challenge. The challenge was to conquer a course, completely autonomously with nothing but coordinates for start and end points. Oh, and in 2004 that challenge was to drive between Barstow CA and Primm NV (150 miles). No car made it beyond 7.3 miles. The next year, 22 of 23 entrants surpassed that goal and 5 completed the ENTIRE course. In 2007 they changed to an urban challenge on a 60-mile course and had several finishers.

There's more technology out there than you think.

 

[AnOutsider]

Centuries? We've come a LONG way in very FEW years. You DO know that there are cars out there that beat the DARPA Grand Challenge. The challenge was to conquer a course, completely autonomously with nothing but coordinates for start and end points. Oh, and in 2004 that challenge was to drive between Barstow CA and Primm NV (150 miles). No car made it beyond 7.3 miles. The next year, 22 of 23 entrants surpassed that goal and 5 completed the ENTIRE course. In 2007 they changed to an urban challenge on a 60-mile course and had several finishers.

There's more technology out there than you think.

I didn't actually know that, and find it cool.

 

[HankLloydRight]

But weren't all those courses without other traffic, bikes, pedestrians on the course? And each entrant ran the course solo?

I think accomplishing those courses is only 10% of what needs to be done. The rest is dealing with other traffic and "real life" scenarios, moving objects with entirely unpredictable and random behavior patterns. While I won't say truly autonomous driving is "centuries" away, I do believe it is at least 2 or 3 decades away (i.e. not really in our lifetimes)... Unless autonomous driving is limited to closed lanes where only other AD cars are allowed, that way, their movements are predictable in a way that computers can act on, and each car can communicate with each other in a way that human drivers can't.

 

[donv]

Google is building their little autonomous city car right now. I believe they will have it running on their campus before the end of the year, and they are trying to get it legal in NYC in the near future. Of course, it doesn't go faster than 25 mph and has something like 2 feet of foam bumper... but it's real and it works. And it has no steering wheel or controls at all, other than an emergency stop button.

The regular car (the Google Prius) passed the Nevada driving test, on normal roads, with bicyclists and other random stuff. Just like any other driver.

But weren't all those courses without other traffic, bikes, pedestrians on the course? And each entrant ran the course solo?

I think accomplishing those courses is only 10% of what needs to be done. The rest is dealing with other traffic and "real life" scenarios, moving objects with entirely unpredictable and random behavior patterns. While I won't say truly autonomous driving is "centuries" away, I do believe it is at least 2 or 3 decades away (i.e. not really in our lifetimes)... Unless autonomous driving is limited to closed lanes where only other AD cars are allowed, that way, their movements are predictable in a way that computers can act on, and each car can communicate with each other in a way that human drivers can't.

 

[callmesam]

But weren't all those courses without other traffic, bikes, pedestrians on the course? And each entrant ran the course solo?

I think accomplishing those courses is only 10% of what needs to be done. The rest is dealing with other traffic and "real life" scenarios, moving objects with entirely unpredictable and random behavior patterns. While I won't say truly autonomous driving is "centuries" away, I do believe it is at least 2 or 3 decades away (i.e. not really in our lifetimes)... Unless autonomous driving is limited to closed lanes where only other AD cars are allowed, that way, their movements are predictable in a way that computers can act on, and each car can communicate with each other in a way that human drivers can't.

so everyone on here predicting autopilot was correct.

No dedicated lanes. No infrastructure.

Luddites need not apply (or comment).

And definitely, certainly NOT just an experiment but a product and feature set in the car which will be upgradeable "soon".

Please take up any concerns with Elon Musk c/o Tesla Motors.

 

[Mycroft]

I predicted autopilot. However, the self-driving bit that will be there next year blew me away! The car will be capable of parking itself in the garage and come out to wait by the front door in the morning!

Now admittedly that is not all that useful. Especially since the car can't plug itself in. Even so, the capability of this initial autopilot system exceeds my expectations!

 

[HankLloydRight]

so everyone on here predicting autopilot was correct.

No dedicated lanes. No infrastructure.

Luddites need not apply (or comment).
.

Sorry, but Tesla didn't announce anything that isn't already commercially available from other auto manufacturers or third party products.

It was just a flashy, kool-aide laden, announcement of such.

And Audi demoed their "self parking car" over a year ago:

Audi Piloted Parking (Audis self-parking car) - YouTube

 

[callmesam]

Sorry, but Tesla didn't announce anything that isn't already commercially available from other auto manufacturers or third party products.

It was just a flashy, kool-aide laden, announcement of such.

And Audi demoed their "self parking car" over a year ago:

Audi Piloted Parking (Audis self-parking car) - YouTube

Lol. Yes Audi showed it off. Where is it?

Please link to any Production vehicles with Teslas features.

<crickets>

Now everyone here realizes that you were WRONG. Just man up and own it.

 

[ggies07]

Self-driving cars will be huge when they reach the point of 100%. Then people who are unable to drive - elderly especially - will suddenly have immense freedom. Kids around here are saying, "Oh, I don't need to get my driver's license. By the time I need a car they'll be self-driving."

Well of course, I believe 100% self-driving cars are a long way off, especially if you live in areas with significant winter weather.

Yep. I'm thinking about when my mom (and myself as well, which is not for another 50 years) is in her 80's and wants to go somehere without having assistance. This will allow her to still live in her own home, coming and going as she pleases, without living in a community.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Lol. Yes Audi showed it off. Where is it?

Please link to any Production vehicles with Teslas features.

<crickets> .

Posted in this very thread: Infiniti Q50 Active Lane Control - Selfdriving Car - YouTube

I'm not "wrong". I never said that auto-pilot wasn't going to happen, because we all know it already is (and has been before Tesla came along). What I said was that fully autonomous driving is not here, and won't be for many, many years to come.

 

[callmesam]

But a 100% car, in that kind of configuration would require dedicated roads and lanes where all the cars are at 100% automated, so there can be no surprises or unexpected events occurring from other human drivers. Think a car-train, where several cars are all traveling together, at very high, constant, speed, in one lane. That's pretty easy to automate and has been done for years. The problem is getting that into production cars and having states or municipalities cordon off another highway lane just for these cars. That's not going to happen just because the technology is already available.

this is is where you are so clearly wrong.

Dedicated roads are NOT required.

Car trains are not required.

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Like I said before, truly autonomous driving is a thing of science-fiction until there are dedicated and separated roads specifically for auto-driving cars (i.e. car trains), where all cars on this road are autonomous, communicate, and can safely predict and handle any changes to the highly controlled environment. But autonomous cars driving on regular roads, shared with human drivers? Not gonna happen for several decades, if that.

Wrong again.

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And Artificial Intelligence was supposed to be here by 2000.

Just sayin'.

And here.

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Autonomous driving is "almost there".... and will continue to be "almost there" for a lot longer than most of you think. And once the technology is actually "here", the legal, regulatory, and insurance issues will take years to catch up.

And here.

Please define "a lot longer than most of you think.

Elon said 4-5 years.

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Also, he said "A Tesla car next year will be 90% capable of autopilot". so to me, that means ONE Tesla car, a test/beta car will be ready for 90% auto-pilot (however Tesla defines that)... and not that "All Tesla cars sold next year will be 90% capable of autopilot". Big difference.

Soooooo very wrong. I've ridden in the car.

Fail again.

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Posted in this very thread: Infiniti Q50 Active Lane Control - Selfdriving Car - YouTube

I'm not "wrong". I never said that auto-pilot wasn't going to happen, because we all know it already is (and has been before Tesla came along). What I said was that fully autonomous driving is not here, and won't be for many, many years to come.

NOT what Tesla is offering. Much lesser.

No pickup or self parking.

No automatic lane changing.

No path to autonomy.

please read you comment above. You've already tried to talk down autopilot. And were wrong.

Now you claim 30 years till driverless where both Google and Tesla are confident the technology will be ready in 5. Hmmmmmmm.

 

[Johan]

Lol. Yes Audi showed it off. Where is it?

Please link to any Production vehicles with Teslas features.

<crickets>

Now everyone here realizes that you were WRONG. Just man up and own it.

Please point me to a consumer who has a Tesla that parks it self. Just sayin'... We're all belibers here but most of these features are still just vaporware. Like battery swapping.

 

[stopcrazypp]

While Tesla hasn't exactly delivered yet (the features demonstrated are not yet in consumer hands and it has yet to be tested in real world conditions), I would like to point out that the active lane control of the Q50 given as an example is still not what Tesla is promising.

Yes, the Q50's system is a lot more aggressive than other "lane keep" type systems, but it is not really intended for "on ramp to off ramp" driving like Tesla's system is. It can't maintain the lane if the curve is too sharp and it does not do lane switching. In other words, it's still a lane keeping system, not a system intended to provide hands-off driving (even though it can do so for a brief period given perfect conditions).
http://www.techhive.com/article/206...eer-for-long-stretches-without-your-help.html

 

[callmesam]

Please point me to a consumer who has a Tesla that parks it self. Just sayin'... We're all belibers here but most of these features are still just vaporware. Like battery swapping.

fair. Swap has been demonstrated (I was there) but not implemented.

 

[HankLloydRight]

No pickup or self parking.

And Tesla demonstrated this where?

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this is is where you are so clearly wrong.

Dedicated roads are NOT required.

Car trains are not required.

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Wrong again.

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And here.

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And here.

Please define "a lot longer than most of you think.

Elon said 4-5 years.

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Soooooo very wrong. I've ridden in the car.

Fail again.

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How can you possibly say that I'm "wrong" when EVERYTHING I was talking about is AUTONOMOUS DRIVING.. IN THE FUTURE.

Do you know the future? You can tell me without a doubt that I'm "wrong"?

Please.

Also, he said "A Tesla car next year will be 90% capable of autopilot". so to me, that means ONE Tesla car, a test/beta car will be ready for 90% auto-pilot (however Tesla defines that)... and not that "All Tesla cars sold next year will be 90% capable of autopilot". Big difference.

>>
Soooooo very wrong. I've ridden in the car.

The car you rode in is not the car that Elon was talking about LAST MONTH. The D is not "90% auto-pilot". It's simply advance driver assist. Which has been my point all along.

 

[AnOutsider]

I predicted autopilot. However, the self-driving bit that will be there next year blew me away! The car will be capable of parking itself in the garage and come out to wait by the front door in the morning!

Now admittedly that is not all that useful. Especially since the car can't plug itself in. Even so, the capability of this initial autopilot system exceeds my expectations!

Yes, I semi-cringed reading that. I can't see any of that ever coming to any practical reality. It felt thrown in to add more hype onto what amounted to a "wait and see" announcement.

 

[callmesam]

And Tesla demonstrated this where?

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How can you possibly say that I'm "wrong" when EVERYTHING I was talking about is AUTONOMOUS DRIVING.. IN THE FUTURE.

Do you know the future? You can tell me without a doubt that I'm "wrong"?

Please.



The car you rode in is not the car that Elon was talking about LAST MONTH. The D is not "90% auto-pilot". It's simply advance driver assist. Which has been my point all along.

I quoted your own words extensively to show that you were not able to differentiate clearly between autopilot and self driving cars. It's clear that you still are not able to do so.

Now your argument is that Tesla is just joshing? Lying?

You really seem to be digging deep into the FUD to disassemble the reality of autopilot.

Technical impossibility, dead 8 year olds, unsafe to change lanes, unsafer than human drivers . . . Have I missed anything?

if you were going to hang your hat on the fact that the hardware is in the car but the software hasn't been enabled I'll let you hold your vice-like grip on to that for a few more weeks or months and then once they're all enabled will check back here.

bottom line: your fear does not equate to the technology being far away.

 

[tomas]

Can we please keep this difference of opinion civil and respectful?

 

[tga]

Can we please keep this difference of opinion civil and respectful?

Better yet, can we take it to PM's? I don't think anyone really cares. I zoned out on this one a while ago.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I quoted your own words extensively to show that you were not able to differentiate clearly between autopilot and self driving cars. It's clear that you still are not able to do so.
.

It's clear to me. It's just clear to you, obviously. Let me help you out ... I was *never* talking about auto-pilot (as Tesla is *currently* defining it as "advanced driver assist"). I was *always* talking about Autonomous Driving and "on-ramp to off-ramp" which is not the same as "auto-pilot".

if you were going to hang your hat on the fact that the hardware is in the car but the software hasn't been enabled I'll let you hold your vice-like grip on to that for a few more weeks or months and then once they're all enabled will check back here.

See? Here *you* are clearly talking about Tesla's current advanced drivers assist functions. I was never talking about this.

And I'll go as far as to say that no, the current hardware in the car is *not* capable of Autonomous Driving. Nor is the software.

bottom line: your fear does not equate to the technology being far away.

I have no fear of anything. I'm just a realist that doesn't take Elon's word as blind-faith gospel that that's how history is going to unfold. Autonomous driving is way way off. Oh, btw, that doesn't mean I'm talking about Auto-pilot or driver's assist.