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When does the Tesla Semi come out, again?
It's even worse than that! Hard to believe, but in a recent survey of 2500 Americans, 60% of people weren't even aware electric cars exist!There are 265 million cars with an average age of 11.4 years.
There are 0.65 million plug in cars as of June 2017 with about a 3 year average age.
So 1.5 years and all hell is going to break loose and folk with buy 1,000,000 EV's a year? That's not even enough to dent it. It's the magnitude folk who are enthusiasts can't grasp.
You need to talk to more people if you believe that EV are going to have a sudden effect on ICE pricing. Many people do not want to even try an EV no matter what the price. Some will not look at EVs until their favorite brand (like Toyota) has them and they are very cheap.
My ICE car (F350 Dually) pulls 20000 lbs for 400 miles between stops.
Which exact EV is going to obsolete that by 2019?
Same here, only mine is 25 yo and still feels new. However, when choosing which car to drive in town I go with the Leaf, when going out of town I choose the 70D, when going to the dump, I choose the ICE. So on paper, the ICE still exists and is registered but probably hasn't driven 1000 mi in three years. So, moral of the story is that EVs may not make up a significant percentage of the vehicle population, but they WILL make up a significant portion of driven miles in the future.I too have an old ICE that I use as a backup/going to the dump truck. It's 18 years old with nearly 200,000 miles. It's worth next to nothing so I will keep it. I only put gas in it a few times a year so not expensive to run. I'm not worried about it declining in value.
However, I wouldn't buy a new ICE car.
And you're rolling coal the entire way.
Yeah, it's called depreciation.
Welcome to the party pal.
25% less than current 4 year old cars.Yeah, he is not making that bold of a prediction saying that your used car will be worth 25% less in 4 years.
25% less than current 4 year old cars.
Reading comprehension.
An equal argument could be made to sell your tesla now (especially if you have a second car)... before EM does something to Osborne previous generations, etc. with M3 and refreshes/redesigns/AP3
I am not saying this will happen, but look at the similarities (reducing used MS prices, being forced to anti-sell, etc). Read about the early growth too. Before anyone says the obvious (clearly there is not the unsold inventory problem as below)
The Osborne Effect
According to proponents of the Osborne Effect, Adam Osborne damaged his company's current sales when he began showing the Osborne Executive to journalists in early 1983. Dealers rapidly started cancelling orders for the Osborne 1 in anticipation of the new Executive. Unsold inventory piled up and in spite of dramatic price cuts – the Osborne 1 was selling for $1295 in July 1983 and $995 by August – sales did not recover. Losses, already higher than expected, continued to mount, and OCC declared bankruptcy on September 13, 1983.[3] Disagreement exists on whether the Osborne Effect truly caused the company to collapse, with Robert X. Cringely and Charles Eicher attributing its failure to other causes.[5][6]
Timing is way off in for this OP(Sell your ICE car ASAP) ....we are not talking about replacing your cell phone... vehicles have a much longer life cycle /used market .... cars are orders of magnitude more expensive and complex ... this shift will take many years and we will likely end up with a mix of technologies in the future...I just love the all Tesla fan boys on this forum comparing Telsa to Apple and Google to hype the stock....I love my new Model S , but I don't plan on buying a new car every other year ... I agree that over the long run EVs are the way to go (not ASAP)
I am beginning to think this TMC is too focused on pumping the TSLA stock ...might be time for a focused forum (ownership and vehicle focus only)
I'd not be surprised if taxi services are gone by 2020.