Separate names with a comma.
Discussion in 'Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD' started by joefee, Jun 8, 2017.
Right now, today, EVs "could" replace nearly all commuter cars in multi-car family households as far as technology and demographics go. But they are not a common choice for a commuter car.
Here's where we are really at today: More Ford Focuses are sold in the US each year than all EV and PHEV's combined. And it's the 29th most common vehicle sold. Not exactly a hot seller.
The good news is the most common 'green' car sold, the Prius Family, was finally passed by all plug-ins combined for the first time. Mostly due to poor Prius sales though, which are barely over 1/2 what they were in 2012.
Which would be a possibility but what do you want to bet that when Tesla releases it's Semi it won't be something that us mere mortals can just buy.
It will be like the PowerWall - you can't just buy one, load it on your truck, and do what you like with it.
I think the Tesla Semi is going to be part of a Tesla fleet that they will control and you can rent hauling services from - not a vehicle you can actually buy.
It's even worse than that! Hard to believe, but in a recent survey of 2500 Americans, 60% of people weren't even aware electric cars exist!
Survey: Lack of Awareness, High Costs Hamper EV Adoption - NGT News
Even in my office I'll occasionally be discussing my car and someone will chime in with "can you actually get electric cars these days?".
There are plenty of people who aspire to own a 3 year old Camry one day.
On the flip side, every boy at my daughters' school gives me the thumbs up when I drop off the girls.
And you're rolling coal the entire way.
Add about 10 years to that 4 year timeline and I would agree, but by that point the other makers will be somewhat competitive with Tesla.
Same here, only mine is 25 yo and still feels new. However, when choosing which car to drive in town I go with the Leaf, when going out of town I choose the 70D, when going to the dump, I choose the ICE. So on paper, the ICE still exists and is registered but probably hasn't driven 1000 mi in three years. So, moral of the story is that EVs may not make up a significant percentage of the vehicle population, but they WILL make up a significant portion of driven miles in the future.
People have a hard time looking 6 months into the future, much less the four year window in Jonas' analysis. I think it is not unlikely that today's ICE vehicles will look prehistoric by 2021 and will be priced accordingly.
Actually emitting about 1/5th the NOx that a VW TDI Golf used to do...
Yeah, it's called depreciation.
Welcome to the party pal.
Yeah, he is not making that bold of a prediction saying that your used car will be worth 25% less in 4 years.
25% less than current 4 year old cars.
Yep. Deprecation sucks.
I'm struggling with this
I have an ICE car that is X years old. If I sell it now I get the price of an X-year-old second hand car, next year that will the price of an X+1-year-old-car. There aren't any equivalent EV vehicles available to that second hand car buyer, so EV is not a choice (for someone who wants to buy an X-year-old secondhand car).
Could be that such a prospective buyer would buy a new EV? or a newer EV? - that either requires EV to be heavily discounted, have cheap finance - which isn't going to happen if there is high demand - or Government provides subsidy. That said, we are seeing some proposals for "Banning Diesel vehicles in city X from Year Y"
So My Average Secondhand Car Buyer cannot afford an EV because it will be newer than my ICE (which is the buyer's target market/price-point)
If people who can afford new cars decide that it would be financial suicide to buy an ICE (WHEN the car is subsequently sold-on secondhand) and decide they will buy an EV instead that has consequences:
The bottom falls out of the NEW ICE market. Can't see that impacts the second-hand market (for CURRENTLY owned ICE owners)
It will require enough supply of EVs (and, more importantly, worldwide supply of batteries) for all those wannabe EV owners. That isn't going to happen anytime soon ... because supply of EVs, as a percentage of new vehicles, can only grow at a steady rate for the next half dozen years at least. Hard to imagine that EVs will be a significant proportion (e.g. 50%) of the new car market anytime soon.
Also hard to imagine that an average ICE car owner keeps their ICE for a significant number of years (maybe they will for an EV if it turns out that it can do a million miles cost-effectively , but that's not an ICE). So most people who normally buy new and currently own an ICE will be disposing of it in a few years time. Some of them will buy EV at that time, the others (who THEN buy ICE again) MAY get a bloody nose ...
So the bits that I am missing are:
where is the collapse of the secondhand market (price) for an ICE I already own?
where is the collapse of the secondhand market (price) for someone who buys a new ICE in the next couple of years even?
I agree with Julian Cox that the bottom will fall out of the ICE market at some point. I'm not sure if that's happening now or not. It could just be a blip in the market. For one thing the US is politically a bit unstable right now. Some people might be opting to drive an older car for a while and see what happens to the economy over the next few years.
There might be an Osborne-like effect caused by the Model 3 (not exactly an Osborne effect because it isn't Tesla hurting its own sales, but the same principle), but I think it's too early for that to be happening, though I think it could quite possibly be happening in a year or two.
The US car market has gotten softer over the last decade or so. Older cars are more reliable than they were 30 years ago, so people tend to keep them longer. The rich have been getting richer, but the poorer half of American society have not seen much gain in their incomes since the 80s (in inflation adjusted dollars) which freezes them out of the newer car market. Lastly Millennials have less interest in driving than Boomers or Gen Xers did. Most Millennial people I know did eventually get a driver's license, but usually in their 20s. Millenials living in large cities often end up just using public transport or bicycles.
Ultimately it's the world car market that counts, but that is getting more and more crowded with a lot of Chinese start ups jumping in and sales outside of China and to some extent India, are flat or declining.
An equal argument could be made to sell your tesla now (especially if you have a second car)... before EM does something to Osborne previous generations, etc. with M3 and refreshes/redesigns/AP3
I am not saying this will happen, but look at the similarities (reducing used MS prices, being forced to anti-sell, etc). Read about the early growth too. Before anyone says the obvious (clearly there is not the unsold inventory problem as below)
The Osborne Effect
According to proponents of the Osborne Effect, Adam Osborne damaged his company's current sales when he began showing the Osborne Executive to journalists in early 1983. Dealers rapidly started cancelling orders for the Osborne 1 in anticipation of the new Executive. Unsold inventory piled up and in spite of dramatic price cuts – the Osborne 1 was selling for $1295 in July 1983 and $995 by August – sales did not recover. Losses, already higher than expected, continued to mount, and OCC declared bankruptcy on September 13, 1983. Disagreement exists on whether the Osborne Effect truly caused the company to collapse, with Robert X. Cringely and Charles Eicher attributing its failure to other causes.
Timing is way off in for this OP(Sell your ICE car ASAP) ....we are not talking about replacing your cell phone... vehicles have a much longer life cycle /used market .... cars are orders of magnitude more expensive and complex ... this shift will take many years and we will likely end up with a mix of technologies in the future...I just love the all Tesla fan boys on this forum comparing Telsa to Apple and Google to hype the stock....I love my new Model S , but I don't plan on buying a new car every other year ... I agree that over the long run EVs are the way to go (not ASAP)
I am beginning to think this TMC is too focused on pumping the TSLA stock ...might be time for a focused forum (ownership and vehicle focus only)
There is some worry about this, but Elon has been working hard anti-selling the Model 3 pointing out all the differences between the Model S and 3. The two cars look similar on the outside, but they really are going to have very different feature sets. The Model 3 is going to be a much more basic form of transportation than the S. It will be futuristic in a lot of ways, but not as feature rich.
I suspect the used market for the Model S is going to hold up quite well. It may even get stronger if demand for the Model 3 is so strong people have to wait a year or more. Those with some money will go into the shorter line and some others in line for a Model 3 will buy a used S instead.
There are plenty of threads on the ownership experience here. Probably 2/3 of the posts are about ownership topics. You happened to come across one of the threads about the company as a whole which is more investment focused.
A few things will happen I think.
1 - Millennials are getting their driving licenses later (or never). They are buying many fewer cars than prior generations. A number of them would rather walk, ride a bicycle or take transit. They do not want to be inactive and overweight or obese. They are much more likely to be one or no car families than prior generations. This will impact all auto sales and will drive down the values of used cars faster than normal.
2 - People will increasingly view ICE as old tech, BEV as new, PHEV as ugly middle. Increasing numbers of people will think far enough ahead to consider that ICE will be worth a lot less in the future and hold on to what they have until they can get an EV that is appropriate for them. This is already happening in the large luxury sedan segment where prices of used BMW's and similar are depreciating a bit faster than would be expected.
3 - Autonomous Car Share will completely shut down taxi and app based ride services and will likely have a significant impact on car sales to consumers as an increasing number will choose to use carshare when needed rather than own a car. I'd not be surprised if taxi services are gone by 2020. As soon as L4 cars are available they'll be sucked up quickly for car share as drivers are too expensive in direct and liability costs.
4 - Successful autonomous capabilities will quickly drive down the value of non-autonomous cars simply based on the costs of insurance. At some point a non-autonomous car will be too expensive to operate just in insurance costs.
I've a Lexus LX570 for hauling stuff that I won't be selling anytime soon but there is no way I'd buy a new ICE right now with the likely depreciation hit that's coming.
That's 2.5 years. We have to create fully autonomous AND build and sell a complete replacement fleet of vehicles.
I have no difficulty believing that fully autonomous is "soon", but replacing the fleet is an entirely different matter surely?