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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Supporting Member
Nov 15, 2013
10,035
79,065
At home
Just an FYI - the IV on the Put side of my IC for next week has ripped up to 76 and 82 respectively.
The strikes are -$650 / +$630
Looking at selling an additional BPS to compliment the IC with this IV spike.
I'm wondering if this is the reason the Hedgies manufacture a sudden short dip, to spike the IV in their favour
 

M3Rider

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Oct 3, 2018
1,508
7,700
CO
Many think that FSD 10 if it's a great success this weekend will quickly translate to a rally next week and I'm thinking no matter how good it is it won't matter much at all.
FSD is not an obvious positive indicator like sales or revenue numbers.\
FSD is a complicated option and a successful Beta launch will take time for people to accept. IMO

The media will down play it .
Some by design others by apathy. FUD of course will counter any positive article with more stories abut Teslas crashing into police vehicles and the like.
I read an article the other day titled " Tesla crashes into house killing 2 people"

Reading the article it stated in around the third paragraph that the car was NOT on autopilot.
Yet the headline says Tesla crashes into house killing 2.
Has there ever been an article titled " Ford crashes into a house killing 2" or Chevy, BMW, Honda etc?
Never. But since it's a Tesla it makes the headline and most won't even bother with reading that it was being manually driven like any other car.

This is the actual headline on yahoo about the same story

Airborne Tesla smashes into Florida house killing two people​

My feeling is that no matter how good FSD10 is it will be buried in the short run.
Just my thoughts on it. I could be wrong
Mostly agree. But there's also this guy who bought 500k shares this week and will keep buying into next.

His motivation was ARK's 4x prediction and Elon's agreement, not FSD. I think half of that 4x comes from FSD though in Elon's mind.
Anyway, Beta 10 having an immediate impact is kinda unlikely. Sentiment changing and a few of these Leos jumping in, possible.
 
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Yoona

NEWBIE Trader
May 3, 2017
491
2,423
Canada
sp is moving towards 50 SMA ?

1631287083642.png
 

juanmedina

Active Member
Mar 31, 2016
2,363
6,750
SC
Just an FYI - the IV on the Put side of my IC for next week has ripped up to 76 and 82 respectively.
The strikes are -$650 / +$630
Looking at selling an additional BPS to compliment the IC with this IV spike.

Why are you going so OTM for next week on the BPS? Just wondering. Thanks
 

mickificki

Member
Mar 25, 2016
808
11,388
Long Beach, CA
Nicely done! Thanks for sharing.

I stupidly panic-bought to close my 8x 745 strike CC's yesterday at a loss...sold a few tsla shares to do so.

I should've just rolled them out, a hard lesson learned!

STO 4x 9/10 760 strike, $2.90...here goes nothin'!

added on Wednesday with a STO 4x 9/10CC 760 strike, $4.00. Also STO 5x 9/17CC 780 strike for $5.40.
Thank you to everyone here for all your contributions. I'm slooooooooooowly learning the ropes.
 

UltradoomY

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Mar 13, 2020
342
1,640
Tampa, FL
Why are you going so OTM for next week on the BPS? Just wondering. Thanks
For any of my Iron Condors - I like to be really wide from the strike - I opened these last week when we were $25 lower.
The call side is $785/$805

For the week of 09/24 I have $820/$840 and paired with $695/$675

Let's me sleep better at night.
 

ReddyLeaf

Active Member
Mar 19, 2014
1,829
3,528
WA State
This week, I decided to have balls of @Lycanthrope and hold until Friday. ……..I was really looking forward to rolling those c755s (just because it would finally mean closing the week over 750)……..I’m starting to actually wait for these daily drops.
Ok, felt like the 754-755 was the floor and the MMs had the SP exactly where they wanted it. Closed out c755s @ $2.8-$3.2, c760s @ $1, and c770s for pennies. Decent profits (70-90%) this week. Finally realized that I’m not comfortable watching the ticker on Friday with sold ATM calls. Really like the higher premiums, but not the Friday stress, so I’ll target higher from now on. On the anti-wheel side, I BOUGHT 10x 9/17 +c780s @ $3.40, hopefully to sell Monday for 100% profit (probably wasted those OPM $$$, but we shall see).
 

phantasms

Mr Self Destruct
Supporting Member
Jan 30, 2019
1,761
10,117
Westchester, NY & White Mountains, NH
Question. I rolled a 750 to a 760 next week for a $4.20 profit [yay]. I'm playing this one close as I'm ok with it going through the wheel.

That said, would it usually be profitable to close it near end of day today and then reopen on a possible/probably spike Monday morning? Or does the time decay make that much of a difference? Thank you!
 
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Drezil

Spirit Animal: Short Puts
Jan 14, 2021
520
4,958
Germany
Question. I rolled a 750 to a 760 next week for a $4.20 profit [yay]. I'm playing this one close as I'm ok with it going through the wheel.

That said, would it usually be profitable to close it near end of day today and then reopen on a possible/probably spike Monday morning? Or does the time decay make that much of a difference? Thank you!
calculate around 2x theta for time decay over weekend & what a 5$-opening-spike (~delta*5) would do and what is more profitable.. :)

that is only a rough back-on-the-envelope calculaton, but could help point in a direction.
 

phantasms

Mr Self Destruct
Supporting Member
Jan 30, 2019
1,761
10,117
Westchester, NY & White Mountains, NH
calculate around 2x theta for time decay over weekend & what a 5$-opening-spike (~delta*5) would do and what is more profitable.. :)

that is only a rough back-on-the-envelope calculaton, but could help point in a direction.
Thank you! Is there a website to help with such things?

The fact that I didn't go through all the lessons suggested on the first page of this thread might be showing. lol
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Supporting Member
Nov 15, 2013
10,035
79,065
At home
OK, closed the cc750's for $5 as this seems to be going nowhere right now... Looking for a higher price to get back in. That being said, c775 IV has clearly ramped up as they're trading much higher at this SP than earlier
 

InTheShadows

Active Member
Apr 20, 2013
2,305
1,724
USA
Interesting options volume today so far for 9/17 expiry.

700p - 62,800
750p - 8,300

760c - 10,200
780c - 17,700
800c - 7,800

I’m thinking the max pain is going to be moving up pretty quickly.
 
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ammulder

3P, X ordered
Supporting Member
Apr 11, 2019
1,281
4,707
Philly area
Finally realized that I’m not comfortable watching the ticker on Friday with sold ATM calls. Really like the higher premiums, but not the Friday stress, so I’ll target higher from now on.

Yeah, except when I sold a c760-860 spread last Friday, I wasn’t thinking it was ATM. Oops. I closed this morning for a small profit; would have been $1 better later in the day but my other options did fine and I wanted that off my plate.

My put spreads rolled to 9/17 (a range topping out from $700-$730) better than expected this morning. Like everything $1 higher than expected. Between that and my poor predictive powers, I’m not selling any calls today. We‘ll see what Monday holds.
 

UltradoomY

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Mar 13, 2020
342
1,640
Tampa, FL
Why are Puts trading at such high premiums for next Friday?
Every indicator to me seems bullish yet Put credits are at high premiums.
710s for 9/17 Bid Ask 7.00- 7.20
That just seems too high.
what am I missing?
I mentioned a little bit upthread that IV spiked up to between 74 and 84 on the puts for next week - but the calls are still in the IV 28 area.
Really weird and I don't know why but it just be like that.
 

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