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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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#1: Close whole position for loss (before max loss)
Approved totally - Jesse Livermore would be happy to hear

As to the possible upcoming Monday Gamma Squeeze, it has congealed into a certainty - barring a 1% black swan event

I'm putting together on paper (virtual) a short version of my current thoughts/ research; the actionable gist of which is for tomorrow to let it all run till at least 1200 before taking any action. And if you can, add fuel to the fire before this happens.
 
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Does anyone have a good way to trade ForEx? I need 1.5 million Euro next quarter. What is the best way to convert USD to EURO?

I'm with Interactive Brokers. Are there any ForEx futures like stock puts where I can offer to buy Euro at 1.12 in the future?
Not sure about best Forex platform (maybe also look into crypto related exchanges, Coinbase is the largest/ better one, Kraken most secure) - but can definitely recommend Transferwise for USD/ EU conversion
 
Already answered but in your original scenario you said to assume the 1050 and 1150 calls were both already ITM. In that case, the roll would be essentially be zero credit. Of course because your long leg is still OTM, you will get a credit to roll down (you are moving to a spread that is way more likely to end ITM and leave you with a loss you you will get paid for this).
Thanks, this was the piece I was not seeing at the time. I was looking at what it would have been Friday, before both legs were ITM. There are no free lunches, that's for sure.
 
i’d be more worried about what my costs are and go somewhere cheaper as you suggested.

i’d also be weary about ‘locking’ in 6% returns if we believe a rising rate environment is in the cards. if they do rise enough you risk opportunity loss (in excess of your 6%) so you can “sleep easy”, or maybe i’m missing important details about the product.
Yes leverage works of spread between equity returns and risk free rate, that spread could collapse over next 10 years and one could get stuck in low liquidity(lock in).
Also based on my cursory research those "notes" tend to significantly underperform tracked indexes over long term.

That being said it is very appealing as a no maintenance, less error prone way of enhancing returns.
I will keep it on backburner ... maybe a good backup strategy if my brain starts to go into Joe Mode (Joe Biden) as I age. Maybe even add it as a side note to living will.
 
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OK, I don't know what just happened.

About a minute after open, with stock price ~$1145, I rolled up my "I dare you" put spread from 850/1000 to 920/1070. Then I broke out in a cold sweat as the stock price immediately dropped from $1150 to $1120.

Yet, the new spread is still profitable. With the stock price plunging $30 toward the short leg, I thought for sure I'd be seeing a huge loss on the spread, but I'm not. At the moment at a stock price of $1133, the new spread is $12 vs. the original $12.57.

Was it somehow the case that IV was really high at the open and sank in moments along with the stock price? Or is there some other explanation?
 
I've been trying to brainstorm all of the ways to deal with my problem BCSs next week. I wanted to get everything written down in one place mainly to help me organize my thoughts, perhaps this might help others in the same boat. Here are all the possibilities (good, bad and ugly) that I could think of:

#1: Close whole position for loss (before max loss)
#2: The ripcord - close the short call for a loss, let the long call run. (Possibly end up better than #1 if stock continues up, worse if it goes down)
#3: Roll/convert the short call out to an ITM short put, keep the long call. Both make money if stock goes up. (Both lose if it goes down)
#4: Convert to debit spread (More loss initially, better if SP rises fast)
#5: Split roll - half the spread, double the contracts - more time and strike improvement (hoping for a pullback in SP)
#6: Keep the spread open, sell the long call at what you think is top (for profit). At that point have a naked ITM call to manage (presumably easier to roll and manage than spread, but giving up defined risk)
#7 Convert to temporary inverse diagonal, then naked call? Roll short call for credit/strike improvement next week, keep the current long call open to run. Sell long call (for profit), then continue to manage ITM short call.
#8 Roll spread for debit to buy more time.
#9 Do nothing and wait, possibly hit max loss or no loss.


Which strategies have I missed and/or am wrong about?

If we have a "gamma squeeze" Monday, 2-4 could do well and resolve the positions quickly. 5-7 buy more time and could eventually end up with no losses if SP comes back to earth.

Assuming we do rise more and come back to earth, #7 is interesting to me, but I need to think on that more. A lot depends on how we are looking in the premarket. If I am feeling bold I might try #2, but #1 is definitely on the table.
Ended up going with #1 (about 60% of total possible loss) for the positions in my taxable account. Waiting to act on the ones in the IRA.
 
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Desperately seeking CC rolling advice :cool:

The consensus has been to roll our weeklies as soon as we got close to ATM, kind of go by feel for the week with charts, technicals, etc but generally not wanting to get too ITM. Now that particular strategy has imploded for most of us, since we have been rolling out and up and are still ITM or just getting to ATM with expiration 2-6 weeks away.

Is the recommendation still to roll even further out? For example, a Dec 3 1050C, ITM and the entire world seems to believe $TSLA is unable ever to fall back down to that level. Since it still has extrinsic value, should it be rolled? Or alternatively, is there a benefit in waiting until closer to expiry, taking the risk that it might be deeper ITM and rolling with less extrinsic value?
 
OK, I don't know what just happened.

About a minute after open, with stock price ~$1145, I rolled up my "I dare you" put spread from 850/1000 to 920/1070. Then I broke out in a cold sweat as the stock price immediately dropped from $1150 to $1120.

Yet, the new spread is still profitable. With the stock price plunging $30 toward the short leg, I thought for sure I'd be seeing a huge loss on the spread, but I'm not. At the moment at a stock price of $1133, the new spread is $12 vs. the original $12.57.

Was it somehow the case that IV was really high at the open and sank in moments along with the stock price? Or is there some other explanation?
Yes IV dropped at open.
 
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OK, I don't know what just happened.

About a minute after open, with stock price ~$1145, I rolled up my "I dare you" put spread from 850/1000 to 920/1070. Then I broke out in a cold sweat as the stock price immediately dropped from $1150 to $1120.

Yet, the new spread is still profitable. With the stock price plunging $30 toward the short leg, I thought for sure I'd be seeing a huge loss on the spread, but I'm not. At the moment at a stock price of $1133, the new spread is $12 vs. the original $12.57.

Was it somehow the case that IV was really high at the open and sank in moments along with the stock price? Or is there some other explanation?
Yep, I think so. I was looking at TOS few minutes after marker open on my phone - it was showing IV at 47 percentile. A minute later it had dropped to 44 percentile. Not sure what it was exactly at open but was probably even higher than 47 percentile

I have also opened 10x dare you put spread at -p1040/+p940 for ~6.50 but it was about 10 min after market open. P1040 is enough of dare for me!
 
Desperately seeking CC rolling advice :cool:

The consensus has been to roll our weeklies as soon as we got close to ATM, kind of go by feel for the week with charts, technicals, etc but generally not wanting to get too ITM. Now that particular strategy has imploded for most of us, since we have been rolling out and up and are still ITM or just getting to ATM with expiration 2-6 weeks away.

Is the recommendation still to roll even further out? For example, a Dec 3 1050C, ITM and the entire world seems to believe $TSLA is unable ever to fall back down to that level. Since it still has extrinsic value, should it be rolled? Or alternatively, is there a benefit in waiting until closer to expiry, taking the risk that it might be deeper ITM and rolling with less extrinsic value?
I think everyone agrees there will be a drop in the SP at some point. Is the top 1200 or 1500? Personally I would wait until contracts are a week out, and then roll a month out. Rinse and repeat.

Edit: For the Jan 2024 CC I want to buy back, I will reassess in a month. I think by the second week in December we start the steady climb into Q4 P&D numbers, and then earnings, so by then, the ship will have sailed for me.
 
Anyone ever get restricted to cash trading because of too many good faith violations? I already rolled one set of contracts, and now it's preventing me from rolling any more because I don't have free cash. But it's even preventing me from closing BPS to free up the cash.

Any advice other than waiting until tomorrow to close some BPS and free up cash? Would moving my whole account to a new brokerage get rid of the restriction?
 
I have also opened 10x dare you put spread at -p1040/+p940 for ~6.50 but it was about 10 min after market open. P1040 is enough of dare for me!

Yeah, I mean, in terms of the number of contracts, I don't dare them very much. You're much more daring than I! :) I would agree that 10x at 920-1070 would be a bit, um, overly daring. On an average week, sure, $60 OTM ought to be safe enough for a short put. But I'm still not getting that "average" vibe yet.
 
Anyone ever get restricted to cash trading because of too many good faith violations? I already rolled one set of contracts, and now it's preventing me from rolling any more because I don't have free cash. But it's even preventing me from closing BPS to free up the cash.

Any advice other than waiting until tomorrow to close some BPS and free up cash? Would moving my whole account to a new brokerage get rid of the restriction?
You could move to a different brokerage but would have the same problem. You need to either keep enough cash to not rely on unsettled funds, or you need to have margin enabled on your account to avoid the good faith violations. (It would be "limited margin" in an IRA account.)
 
Anyone ever get restricted to cash trading because of too many good faith violations? I already rolled one set of contracts, and now it's preventing me from rolling any more because I don't have free cash. But it's even preventing me from closing BPS to free up the cash.

Any advice other than waiting until tomorrow to close some BPS and free up cash? Would moving my whole account to a new brokerage get rid of the restriction?

Before I got "limited margin" in my IRA I was unable to close trades right away if I wanted to. I don't think it was a "good faith violation" though because IIRC they just prevented me from making the trade. Or maybe they prevented me because it would have been a violation? I don't remember the exact message, when I hit the "preview" button it just said something to the effect of you're not allowed to make this trade.