Maybe? Either that or the 5th. Can’t recall they were very close.
EDIT: November 12th so a little further than I thought.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
EDIT: November 12th so a little further than I thought.
dc_h
Active Member
Sorry for the stream of consciousness. I am now daring the market to take some bps money from me. I opened just 5 990-890 bps for 15 each. If I'm going to lose going up, at least I'll make a little more to cover the call spread loss.
I've now gone full straddle, hoping we can settle the week around 1000, with put spreads from 990-890, 950-870 and 900-850 and calls from 1000-1050. I also have covered calls at 1100, which seemed clever at some point.
*Noteworthy, CNBC has new Tesla experts that like trading (not shorting) the stock.
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shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
I have a Nov. 19 covered call at 910 I sold back in September. 20 of the 100 shares are on margin (only time I've ever done this, back in July) and was just trying to cover the interest. SURELY the MMs wouldn't let it breach ATH before the end of the year....
Hold me.
Hold me.
I'll probably be kicking myself at the end of the week for not waiting. Probably 90% chance we are below 1000 on Friday. But if we go higher this week on a squeeze my losses could have gone up another 4X. Couldn't risk it.
alterac000
Member
Glad I closed the 1000/1050 call spreads this morning. When was the last time we had a >10% move in a day?
A little painful to watch adjusted positions go -500% on paper but it's ok. I'm truly ok to have leaps sold away at $1100sp this week esp since I was already willing at $1000.
Moved up my 750/700 put spreads to 900/850s as some have already done, netting $1.2 on the roll.
Today seems historic for TSLA. Congrats to everyone with the conviction to hold long!
Edit: I should have been more careful (what I get for trying quick trades on a laptop) the 1100 LCCs above were for 11/5 expiry not 10/29. If we get to 1100 by end of week I still plan sell my leaps and close out those LCCs.
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BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
I closed out my tiny 1100/1150 at a small lose because I had paper hands., I thought 1100 was "out of play" this week, but who knows now with the Hertz news.... Tons of free advertising (and Tom Brady) for Tesla, 100K+ sales ($4.2 billion) and now other car rental companies need to either get on board or get left behind. No one else (VW, Ford, GM) has the production volume to sell to a rental company so Enterprise/Avis/Budget/etc will have to either get on board with Tesla as well or get left behind.
After digesting that in my head I still see more upside this week and thought that 1100/share might be possible.
InTheShadows
Active Member
The problem with coming in close is that now that we had a spike in price. IV is going up. If we head back into even the upper 900’s we will be pushing IV of 70. Drop to the mid to low 900’s and we could see 80. Which is good for selling new positions, but bad for open positions.
The spreads I opened up this am are pretty much even and I opened them all when. The SP was between 970 and 980. And we only pulled back to 1016.
Doesn't quite work that way. The regression to upper 900's should lower IV.
Another thought that occurs to me today is that I can earn the 2-5% I'm looking for at most any share price and any week of the year. The 630/730 put spread and the 1360/1460 put spread are going to be worth about the same, with variation primarily on their IV, applying my selection criteria to each (so the share price will be somewhere north of $1460 before that's a spread I would consider).
I've traded high IV TSLA environments really well, and with this summer and fall learnings, I'm trading low IV environments even better. The IV is going up, but my feel for the stock and where it's headed is particularly bad at this moment. If the 700/800 put spreads were more like $1 than $0.50, then I might sign up for them anyway. But they aren't and I'll sit on my hands ready for a regression in the share price, even though I'm increasingly feeling like that regression isn't going to happen.
I have seen 2-4 (depending on how you count them) situations where the TSLA share price was bumping along and then something happened (usually an earnings report) that is better than expected, or just plain unexpected, and the share price becomes disconnected from the previous trading range (that's how I think of it). There is this investor wide observation / decision that the company is worth a lot more than its trading for at that moment, and the market goes off (up) searching for a better valuation.
It happened back during the $25 to $180 run in a short few months (5 to 38 in post split dollars) back in 2013. I remember so many people talking about selling to lock in gains (and then some of them, buying back in later when they decided it wasn't coming back).
It happened a couple of years ago in the fall(?) where we jumped from roughly 400 to 1000 in a short period (80 to 200 in post-split $$).
It's happened again around the split and S&P inclusion when $1400 pre-split has turned into $5000 pre-split ($1000 post-split). Or we could split these up into 2 events.
The thing I'm always worried about when selling calls is that THIS time is the next time (a big enough jump that it goes onto that list). It mostly isn't - until it is. This sure feels like a new entry for the list because of the good 3rd quarter results (my explanation), but we also get more false breakouts than not.
I've traded high IV TSLA environments really well, and with this summer and fall learnings, I'm trading low IV environments even better. The IV is going up, but my feel for the stock and where it's headed is particularly bad at this moment. If the 700/800 put spreads were more like $1 than $0.50, then I might sign up for them anyway. But they aren't and I'll sit on my hands ready for a regression in the share price, even though I'm increasingly feeling like that regression isn't going to happen.
I have seen 2-4 (depending on how you count them) situations where the TSLA share price was bumping along and then something happened (usually an earnings report) that is better than expected, or just plain unexpected, and the share price becomes disconnected from the previous trading range (that's how I think of it). There is this investor wide observation / decision that the company is worth a lot more than its trading for at that moment, and the market goes off (up) searching for a better valuation.
It happened back during the $25 to $180 run in a short few months (5 to 38 in post split dollars) back in 2013. I remember so many people talking about selling to lock in gains (and then some of them, buying back in later when they decided it wasn't coming back).
It happened a couple of years ago in the fall(?) where we jumped from roughly 400 to 1000 in a short period (80 to 200 in post-split $$).
It's happened again around the split and S&P inclusion when $1400 pre-split has turned into $5000 pre-split ($1000 post-split). Or we could split these up into 2 events.
The thing I'm always worried about when selling calls is that THIS time is the next time (a big enough jump that it goes onto that list). It mostly isn't - until it is. This sure feels like a new entry for the list because of the good 3rd quarter results (my explanation), but we also get more false breakouts than not.
I wouldn't be surprised to see us below 1,000 either, but I closed my -1100/+1150 spreads at about an 800% loss. This reeks of gamma / short squeeze and a blow-off top.
I'm leaving my 1050 CCs open, since they're easier to manage and I'm comfortable rolling them - I think they're at a high enough strike that I can hang on to the underlying. I've done it before. Still very positive for the month, and like you said, live to fight another day.
bballshinobi
Member
LOL yea but you just cry those tears deep inside when you know you left $250k on the table
dc_h
Active Member
Anyone have insight into how long prior gamma squeezes have lasted? Could this last a week or two, or should this bounce back downward before resuming up for 4th Q earnings and more positive fundamentals.
Same. I keep telling myself "worst case scenario is a phenomenal problem to have". I'd probably have better time value in my life if my shares got called away. I'd reserve my roadster, lock my other TSLA shares away forever, and start the hunt for the next stock with a pile of money while selling puts here and there. I'd miss all of you too much though.
Today was the day I chose to open the BCS portions of my ICs Opened them in the morning when the SP was around 975. So +c1200/-c1100 @ the fabulous price of $1.5 each. I thought -p1100 was safe, they are now at -350%. But my overall portfolio is up so nicely that those don't hurt much. I also opened additional BPS at strikes I thought were aggressive and too close to the sun in the AM. +p805/-p905 and +p845/-945 in individual brokerage and +p840/-p940 and +p860/-910. These are quite sticky and not losing value fast enough to make up for the losses on the BCS. I am going to wait on the BCSs to see if these drop off over the next few days. If not, it will be an education in rolling out.
That sounds like a good strategy to me. I fortunately waited to sell calls until later in the day, for the most part.
1050c @ $3 (rolled these to next week 1090c - ow)
1100c @ $11
1200c @ $4
I feel like I've done a month's worth of trading today, but I can't decide if we're going up or down from here, as my price target was 1k. Should I take some profits and wait for a dip? Obviously, right? But I should have said the same thing when we were at 950 this morning and I'm glad I didn't. And I've got a boatload of by the dip cash because going all in on BPS didn't seem wise (I've been using high premium ITM BPS lately, although I should probably have just been buying calls). I'm hoping for a nice consolidation around 1000 for the rest of the week, but I could see us going to 1100 or back to 950 no problem.
In the earnings call they talked about how society is “Awakening” to EVs and Tesla.
Right now most companies and analysts who are not named Tesla or invested in Tesla are still modeling a world where we slowly transition to EVs over the next ~9-14 years. Lots of people talking about “50% of car sales being EVs by 2030”.
It is growing increasingly clear they are about 45-49% low in their estimate and that their timeline is way off too. We are likely to see 90% of new cars being EVs well before 2030. Once Wall Street figures this out, they are going to start trying to figure out who is capable of scaling EV production quickly enough to get that kind of volume.
Then we’ll see an awakening on Wall Street. I think this is a hint that some on Wall Street are cluing in.
Right now most companies and analysts who are not named Tesla or invested in Tesla are still modeling a world where we slowly transition to EVs over the next ~9-14 years. Lots of people talking about “50% of car sales being EVs by 2030”.
It is growing increasingly clear they are about 45-49% low in their estimate and that their timeline is way off too. We are likely to see 90% of new cars being EVs well before 2030. Once Wall Street figures this out, they are going to start trying to figure out who is capable of scaling EV production quickly enough to get that kind of volume.
Then we’ll see an awakening on Wall Street. I think this is a hint that some on Wall Street are cluing in.
It hurt, but I bought back my cc970 and rolled cc990 to cc1020... then had to buy cc1020 back too. It was a bloodbath on the calls, but I covered it by shifting put spreads upward -- new short legs at 920 and 930 for this week. Here's hoping the 4 digits stick!
I do find options more challenging in the current environment where the pricing (I understand due to literal IV) on weekly options hasn't been so great, but the conceptual volatility seems quite massive. I don't know why there's such a disconnect.
I went ahead and took the hit and closed my 1000 - 1050 BCS once we convincingly passed 1000. At 990+ i was content to wait it out, but I figured better to just take the loss (less than half of the max loss on the contract) and just reset for the next round. Sure there's a decent likelyhood that the price could come back before friday, but this sorta feels like one of those sustained runs. If that's the case, i'd rather take the 40% loss instead of 100%. Plus, peace of mind not having to watch that get redder and redder.
Besides, overall portfolio is up just ridiculous amounts today, so there's that
Besides, overall portfolio is up just ridiculous amounts today, so there's that
So, as I mentioned earlier, last friday, I placed a very aggressive position, 940/1000; but kept 1/2 account in reserve (that's a lot of reserve for my daredevil self).
Today, as it was going against me, I bought 950 longs on the way up while I thought about my strategy.... and sold them back at end of day since they were high priced and had a big profit. I then decided to sell BPS at same 940 strike to form a butterfly 880/940/940/1000 to cut risk another 14k.
My goal is to not add extra capital to the trade, or to be very very careful about doing so.
I'd really like to be able to execute a split roll and learn how to manage the position until it can win, which I think is still possible with time. I think the challenge is trying to figure out if a dip to 970 is in the cards.
While it may take time to cure the position with a split roll, I'm mindful that rolls MUST be done in one ticket. For instance, if I were to close the 940/1000 without simultaneously opening a new position the following week, I would lose access to the capital while placing the new position! The problem is you can't roll a condor in schwab.... you have to close out the BPS and then roll the BCS... I'm curious if anyone here has executed a split roll in a way that doesn't expose the loss and allows you to place the new strikes a little further away the following week? This seems to be the big benefit of the split roll no?
Also, I was curious if @adiggs or anyone have experience with inverted strangles as a way to cut loss? I assume premium and IV are the biggest factor on whether crossing shorts ever makes sense to reduce max loss.
Thanks for the input!
Today, as it was going against me, I bought 950 longs on the way up while I thought about my strategy.... and sold them back at end of day since they were high priced and had a big profit. I then decided to sell BPS at same 940 strike to form a butterfly 880/940/940/1000 to cut risk another 14k.
My goal is to not add extra capital to the trade, or to be very very careful about doing so.
I'd really like to be able to execute a split roll and learn how to manage the position until it can win, which I think is still possible with time. I think the challenge is trying to figure out if a dip to 970 is in the cards.
While it may take time to cure the position with a split roll, I'm mindful that rolls MUST be done in one ticket. For instance, if I were to close the 940/1000 without simultaneously opening a new position the following week, I would lose access to the capital while placing the new position! The problem is you can't roll a condor in schwab.... you have to close out the BPS and then roll the BCS... I'm curious if anyone here has executed a split roll in a way that doesn't expose the loss and allows you to place the new strikes a little further away the following week? This seems to be the big benefit of the split roll no?
Also, I was curious if @adiggs or anyone have experience with inverted strangles as a way to cut loss? I assume premium and IV are the biggest factor on whether crossing shorts ever makes sense to reduce max loss.
Thanks for the input!
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