Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[intelligator]

I'm not a scientist, it's my opinion only

The concern is more about the virus mutating, infecting, spreading, new variants forming... Probably needs a another week before Pfizer, Moderna, BionTech, others officially report findings.

 

[generalenthu]

Yes, not only are the futures up, NQ is outperforming ES, which has not been the case the last week or so.

 

[Cherry Wine]

FYI, on Nightly News tonight they had some preliminary data that suggests that the Pfizer vaccine is 40X less effective against Omicron. If that is the case, we could see a drop in the market. It is honestly my only concern right now with my 950 short legs.

That news report is a poor interpretation of initial studies on antibody neutralization of omicron relative to wild type, one of which - yes - showed a 40-fold reduction in neutralization among those with 2x Pfizer, but that does not translate to a 40-fold drop in vaccine efficacy. (Another showed a 7-fold reduction in neutralization, by the way.)

There is a silver lining to be had here - the studies indicate incomplete immune escape, meaning the vaccines are still providing protection against not only infection, but almost certainly symptomatic infection and most importantly severe disease as well. Furthermore, the studies showed a substantial improvement in those who were previously infected and 2x vaccinated, indicating that a booster shot will very likely provide significantly more protection from infection relative to those who have just received two doses. Also, antibody neutralization is just an initial step in our bodies' immune response, the other aspects of which won't be captured in a neutralization assay and will need clinical studies to evaluate properly. In other words, it will be a little while longer until we can satisfactorily determine vaccine efficacy against Omicron.

You can also couple this news with preliminary clinical findings out of South Africa indicating reduced severity among hospitalized Omicron patients for even more news on which to be cautiously optimistic.

I've been watching this all very closely, and I'm breathing a small sigh of relief -- it could have been far worse. With that said, keep in mind that these are all very small studies with very preliminary findings, and much more research will be needed to either corroborate and/or determine the actual state of affairs.

 

[Drezil]

@Cherry Wine couldn't agree more regarding omicron. Was about to write similar things

As I am awake too early and all markets are closed I took a look into the tokenized Tesla I keep open in a tab. Low volume (~200 shares in the last 24 hours), but trading 24/7.

1 hour ago or so the price jumped to 1067. Good news I guess?

Tesla tokenized stock FTX price today, TSLA to USD live price, marketcap and chart | CoinMarketCap

The live Tesla tokenized stock FTX price today is $0 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $0 USD. We update our TSLA to USD price in real-time.

coinmarketcap.com

 

[traxila]

Markets trying to spin light November Shanghai number into a miss. Personally I do not see it, but markets never seem to ask my opinion.

Response in AM so far muted. Perhaps macro momo to much stop current upswing, which is fine by me. Either way prepare for fireworks as usual!

 

[JustMe]

Markets trying to spin light November Shanghai number into a miss. Personally I do not see it, but markets never seem to ask my opinion.

Response in AM so far muted. Perhaps macro momo to much stop current upswing, which is fine by me. Either way prepare for fireworks as usual!

Looking like a ~ flat day so far. Stable stock price after an IV pump is a gift to options sellers

 

[Tslynk67]

The pop at 7:58 EST was the price upgrade from Pierre Ferragu @ New Street - $1580, has counteracted the CN figures, somewhat

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What a great day to "be the house". I have a handful of real good BPS sold for next week and am looking for another handful. Ready for a pop so I can sell 2-5 near money CCs at high premium.

I think we have a pretty solid floor now that the tree has been shaken so harshly. Just need to be ok with CC's executing or rolling them.

 

[Mrwatchdawg]

Anyone up for creating a WhatsApp / Telegram group? Would be cool to chat live about these things. I don’t mind creating it.

 

[generalenthu]

The last time we flipped below 1000, I went for max strike improvement and rolled a small number of 1100 puts to 1000 strike Jan 17 puts.

While the number of contracts is small, it did create a decent amount of tax loss to slightly offset my 2021 tax liability.

If we do dip here, due to 12/9 or whatever, it might be worthwhile considering a roll to fewer / deeper in the money Jan contracts and start a fresh batch of bps.

 

[bkp_duke]

Anyone up for creating a WhatsApp / Telegram group? Would be cool to chat live about these things. I don’t mind creating it.

There is already a slack channel that. I'm not in favor of a 3rd channel to monitor.

 

[BornToFly]

Anyone up for creating a WhatsApp / Telegram group? Would be cool to chat live about these things. I don’t mind creating it.

I was thinking we could do a public Google sheet where we can enter our current positions (don't have to list number of contracts, just what they are), and update as we roll.

 

[BornToFly]

What a great day to "be the house". I have a handful of real good BPS sold for next week and am looking for another handful. Ready for a pop so I can sell 2-5 near money CCs at high premium.

I think we have a pretty solid floor now that the tree has been shaken so harshly. Just need to be ok with CC's executing or rolling them.

It seems like yesterday you were afraid to dip your toe in the water.... They grow up so fast.

 

[jeewee3000]

Anyone up for creating a WhatsApp / Telegram group? Would be cool to chat live about these things. I don’t mind creating it.

What @bkp_duke said.

Also consider the following:

- It was/is the TMC platform that brought us together, therefore it would be a disservice to TMC to take our time/efforts/insights elsewhere.
- Because of the format of this thread (including moderation etc), we research better and post higher quality content/trades.
- The reason of existence of this thread is not to actively day trade as a group (i.e. copying each others trades blindly and immediately), but for each member to gain his/her own insight(s) and being able to learn to generate cash/income/gains through options TSLA trading.

So a WhatsApp group wouldn't allow the depth that this forum has to offer, IMO, and it wouldn't be fair to TMC.

(EDIT: also could you imagine the Whatsapp Icon: "184 new messages" - "sigh")

 

[ABC2D]

appears that aim for tomorrow is Max Pain at $1,055

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It seems like yesterday you were afraid to dip your toe in the water.... They grow up so fast.

My fear yesterday was to the up side! Which is hilarious considering how deep I had gotten into timing spikes with OTM calls. At open this morning I found myself getting annoyed SP wouldn't go down to -1% so I could sell my BPS. Lol.....that's a new sensation to me for sure!

I will always remain skittish and I consider it a benefit in this game. I'm a natural worrier and cheap......great combination for selling spreads.

Added 12/17 BPS $840/$940 @ $9.80

Only other put plans for 12/17 are to add at $790/$890 if premiums somehow hit $6/$7/$8/$9.

 

[Yoona]

i am thinking of black swan, especially for 2022... therefore, i am analyzing the benefits of BPS width vs straight puts...

assuming $2M capital for 12/23:

-p950 x50 credit $115k, width 0
-p950/+p900 x500 credit $487k, width 50
-p950/+p850 x250 credit $379k, width 100
-p950/+p800 x175 credit $322k, width 150
-p950/+p750 x150 credit $300k, width 200
-p950/+p700 x100 credit $205k, width 250
-p950/+p650 x75 credit $159k, width 300

if i want less risk and i prefer capital preservation instead of more income, the lowest trading risk is just straight up sell puts instead of BPS (regardless of width), amiright? There is no way stock will drop to zero. Capital is gone on BPS max loss.

thoughts? comments? objections? analysis?

TIA!

 

[Chenkers]

i am thinking of black swan, especially for 2022... therefore, i am analyzing the benefits of BPS width vs straight puts...

assuming $2M capital for 12/23:

thoughts? comments? objections? analysis?

TIA!

I did the analysis below a few days ago so the premiums will be out of date. However the main point of the exercise was to look at the premium received versus max loss risk for various spread sizes. Unlike what I'd previously thought, the wider spreads provide a similar premium for the (portfolio) margin used, sometimes slightly better. However the max loss dramatically increases with wider spread width. So if you are giving a higher priority to mitigating a black swan then a narrower spread width is preferable. The straight Put still results in a large max loss, you are just selling less of them.

Spread Size	Option	Number	Premium	Revenue	MM Used USD	Max Loss USD
$30​	1150/1180 BCS	121​	$1.88​	$22,748​	-$100,000​	$284,500​
$50​	1150/1200 BCS	91​	$2.62​	$23,804​	-$100,000​	$476,700​
$100​	1150/1250 BCS	69​	$3.57​	$24,743​	-$100,000​	$967,199​
$200​	1150/1350 BCS	61​	$4.15​	$25,379​	-$100,000​	$1,961,999​
$30​	820/850 BPS	152​	$1.67​	$25,348​	$100,000​	$288,000​
$50​	800/850 BPS	105​	$2.40​	$25,166​	$100,000​	$479,000​
$100​	750/850 BPS	75​	$3.56​	$26,539​	$100,000​	$967,199​
$200​	650/850 BPS	63​	$4.78​	$29,996​	$100,000​	$1,954,499​

 

[stealthyc]

i am thinking of black swan, especially for 2022... therefore, i am analyzing the benefits of BPS width vs straight puts...

assuming $2M capital for 12/23:

-p950 x50 credit $115k, width 0
-p950/+p900 x500 credit $487k, width 50
-p950/+p850 x250 credit $379k, width 100
-p950/+p800 x175 credit $322k, width 150
-p950/+p750 x150 credit $300k, width 200
-p950/+p700 x100 credit $205k, width 250
-p950/+p650 x75 credit $159k, width 300

if i want less risk and i prefer capital preservation instead of more income, the lowest trading risk is just straight up sell puts instead of BPS (regardless of width), amiright? There is no way stock will drop to zero. Capital is gone on BPS max loss.

thoughts? comments? objections? analysis?

TIA!

Note that you are not fully covering if you are selling 50x 950 strike naked puts, so you can get called as the maintenance requirement for them increases in a black swan

 

[BornToFly]

I did the analysis below a few days ago so the premiums will be out of date. However the main point of the exercise was to look at the premium received versus max loss risk for various spread sizes. Unlike what I'd previously thought, the wider spreads provide a similar premium for the (portfolio) margin used, sometimes slightly better. However the max loss dramatically increases with wider spread width. So if you are giving a higher priority to mitigating a black swan then a narrower spread width is preferable. The straight Put still results in a large max loss, you are just selling less of them.

Spread Size	Option	Number	Premium	Revenue	MM Used USD	Max Loss USD
$30​	1150/1180 BCS	121​	$1.88​	$22,748​	-$100,000​	$284,500​
$50​	1150/1200 BCS	91​	$2.62​	$23,804​	-$100,000​	$476,700​
$100​	1150/1250 BCS	69​	$3.57​	$24,743​	-$100,000​	$967,199​
$200​	1150/1350 BCS	61​	$4.15​	$25,379​	-$100,000​	$1,961,999​
$30​	820/850 BPS	152​	$1.67​	$25,348​	$100,000​	$288,000​
$50​	800/850 BPS	105​	$2.40​	$25,166​	$100,000​	$479,000​
$100​	750/850 BPS	75​	$3.56​	$26,539​	$100,000​	$967,199​
$200​	650/850 BPS	63​	$4.78​	$29,996​	$100,000​	$1,954,499​

The problem with you analysis is that you are basing it off revenue? If you maximize your margin, you are more likely to have max loss with narrow spreads than wider spreads, or naked puts.