Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[MP3Mike]

FWIW, max pain for 1/28 is $1,070

I would be pleased with that

Well it was $1,070 Friday morning. We won't really know what it is currently until 7AM Eastern time Monday morning.

As far as BPSs I have some 900/1000s for 1/28 that I am looking to roll to something like June 1025/1075s. It would, at prices currently listed, cost ~2/3 of the premium collected, but would release 50% of the margin.

I, also, have some 995/1075s for 1/28 that I don't currently have a plan for.

 

[Yoona]

From Bloomberg

this appears to be bullish 1/28 >1000; does anyone know how that "10.4%" was derived? (what TA line?) I am assuming it meant SP=1042.

TIA!

 

[juanmedina]

this appears to be bullish 1/28 >1000; does anyone know how that "10.4%" was derived? (what TA line?) I am assuming it meant SP=1042.

TIA!

I believe is derived by the cost of the ATM call and put by adding them together. So if you look at the ATM 1/28th $940 call and put they are expecting a total move of about + or - $96.18

 

[JustMe]

this appears to be bullish 1/28 >1000; does anyone know how that "10.4%" was derived? (what TA line?) I am assuming it meant SP=1042.

TIA!

My understanding is “options traders are pricing in a 10.4% move” is not directional. It is derived from options prices and IV. Options traders expect TSLA to break >10% up or down.

*what he said

 

[InTheShadows]

Then I still have enough margin to do 350 weeklies spreads for the next two years, picking strikes I actually like.

Until the next time something irrational happens with the market.

However, another thing is if you do go this route, you don’t have to hold the 2024 spread until expiration. If you track your break even with it. Just get back to that point and close it out and you are back to the full freedom of what you want to do.

I’m really wishing 3 trading days ago I would have done that with my P&D spreads I have been rolling. Then I wouldn’t be in the situation I am in.

 

[BornToFly]

Until the next time something irrational happens with the market.

I have learned my lesson. 20% OTM from here on out. I Promise....

 

[corduroy]

I think I need to stick to the rule of going at least 20% OTM with a max 5 DTE.

I stick to the 20% OTM target for the most part, but I don't think it would be possible to make decent returns with the 5 DTE. Most of my positions are 7-14 DTE, which allow me to hit a $2-3 target on BPS that are 20% OTM. Personally I won't open anything under $2, and to do that, I've found I generally need to go out to next week.

 

[traxila]

I have learned my lesson. 20% OTM from here on out. I Promise....

Either you are worth staggering amounts and this is your 'have fun' account or you have a spectacularly grounded view of money and its place in your life. You write about having eight figure sums at risk with recently made crazy options bets in an offbeat, humorous and upbeat manner.

Based on the world I know, your relationship with money is more rare than those with nine figure net worths.

Congratulations and I salute you!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Either you are worth staggering amounts and this is your 'have fun' account or you have a spectacularly grounded view of money and its place in your life. You write about having eight figure sums at risk with recently made crazy options bets in an offbeat, humorous and upbeat manner.

Based on the world I know, your relationship with money is more rare than those with nine figure net worths.

Congratulations and I salute you!

My vision of money is once you have enough to live happy and do whatever you like, the rest is just to help people around you. So my success in option trading will influence the happiness of people around me, not mine. I have everything I want in life, now I do this to make donations and help people around. For the sake of people around me, make this week a reversal. Just altruistic wish

 

[BornToFly]

Either you are worth staggering amounts and this is your 'have fun' account or you have a spectacularly grounded view of money and its place in your life. You write about having eight figure sums at risk with recently made crazy options bets in an offbeat, humorous and upbeat manner.

Based on the world I know, your relationship with money is more rare than those with nine figure net worths.

Congratulations and I salute you!

I think I'm overly optimistic..., although there was a period Friday night where I thought I was going to throw up. Knowing that there is a solution by going out to Jan 2024 has helped my stress level and my mood. However, I did calculate how much more I would make with the Jan 24 BPS if my spreads for Friday recover, so I'm starting to get amped up again. I can't begin to tell you how much better I will feel with a strong Green Day tomorrow. The bigger issue is that I don't need to be making this much money for myself. I'm taking on a lot of this risk to make money to help others (like OrthoSurg), and I might be hurting the mission by taking on too much risk, which I find ironic, because I have been TRYING to be on the more conservative side of the traders here (the SP is more than 20% lower than I expected at this point based on the P&D numbers).

 

[BornToFly]

Wallstreet EPS estimate translates to 189% YoY growth. 189%!!!!!!! Stock price was almost at 900 a year ago.

Wallstreet dummies - Do you think 189% growth is good enough to to support a higher stock price?

Let's GO!!!!!!

 

[vikings123]

Pretty impressive that we don’t yet have a futures post(futures start trading at 6 PM EST). It usually does not mean anything until the early morning hours but I will take any green we can get

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I’ve been reading about everyone’s trades with great concern and empathy. Unfortunately, no help or ideas from this newbie (except what others have said like roll out). For my contribution, here’s the last few months with various trend lines. We’ve filled the 938-958 gap that many predicted, so now have a decent chance at recovery, for which I’m positioned. It’s still possible that the SP drops to slightly below 900 to again fill the gap from September 22-25, 2021, but I definitely hope it doesn’t. Since it was already filled once, maybe we will be lucky. In any case, I believe that we will soon revisit the 1100s, and maybe even ATH, but it might take more than next week because of the macros. Hang on, roll out, trade with caution, the reversal is coming. I just hope that it’s soon.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Futes are green, some of you guys looking at 8-figure max losses might actually escape with your heads if you play smart on Monday!

 

[vwman111]

I think I'm overly optimistic..., although there was a period Friday night where I thought I was going to throw up. Knowing that there is a solution by going out to Jan 2024 has helped my stress level and my mood. However, I did calculate how much more I would make with the Jan 24 BPS if my spreads for Friday recover, so I'm starting to get amped up again. I can't begin to tell you how much better I will feel with a strong Green Day tomorrow. The bigger issue is that I don't need to be making this much money for myself. I'm taking on a lot of this risk to make money to help others (like OrthoSurg), and I might be hurting the mission by taking on too much risk, which I find ironic, because I have been TRYING to be on the more conservative side of the traders here (the SP is more than 20% lower than I expected at this point based on the P&D numbers).

@BornToFly - that is extremely kind of you to be helping OrthoSurg!

@OrthoSurg - let us know if you need any additional help, this forum will pull together to help.

 

[Discoducky]

Wallstreet EPS estimate translates to 189% YoY growth. 189%!!!!!!! Stock price was almost at 900 a year ago.

Wallstreet dummies - Do you think 189% growth is good enough to to support a higher stock price?

Let's GO!!!!!!

Seems like a coiled spring (doesn't fit exactly to this def) but we all know it is... When will it blow-off top, that is the question.

/Rant on...

The thing that always vexes me is that the SP has a percentage of its amalgamation/aggregation from funds that seem to only care that Tesla is a growth company as a "classification" and when funds/monies flee growth they flee Tesla. They flee a company with astounding Q/Q and Y/Y growth and languishing/bereft competition. They seem to press the big "Flee growth stocks" button. This way of thinking seems so archaic and outdated, but still seems to happen when TSLA trades a multiples of percentages than other stocks.

After a decade of FUD-slingers, you'd think stock people would learn that Tesla is going to take over not just the auto market, but several others. Just shows how gullible traditional thinking can be. P/E ratio should be closer to ~1000, but at ~300 currently and with some incredible #'s about to be heralded to ~$3 EPS...let's do some maths, carry the 3, move the decimal!

/Rant off...

 

[FS_FRA]

Morning all - hope everyone is doing OK, all things considered.

Pre-market not looking great, but I just can't imagine with the outrageous beat already being reported on this continues for the rest of the week. It just doesn't makes sense.

In any case, I'm positioned to roll my -910/+710 to next week no later than Wednesday if need be, however I'd really like to see this one expire OTM on Friday as I've been rolling for a bunch of weeks now.

What is the current "feel-good- no-advice" % OTM for 1/28 CCs ? 20%? Would mean 1100?

 

[wooter]

What is the current "feel-good- no-advice" % OTM for 1/28 CCs ? 20%? Would mean 1100?

It's that moment where those percentages don't make sense anymore. Opening calls right now is selling against the expected direction, and 1100 isn't that far away if the market decides to correct itself.

 

[vikings123]

What is the current "feel-good- no-advice" % OTM for 1/28 CCs ? 20%? Would mean

IMO this would be a bad time to sell CCs. Markets appear to be overreacting to all the interest rate talk. At this point it looks like it’s already pricing in 10 rate hikes this year lol.

I think there will be short covering over the next couple of days and that would be a good time to sell CCs. Not advice.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Max pain is at 1050 this week with a huge call wall at 1100. I would be very careful with CC's for the next three weeks in particular.

MM's and hedgies can likely hold 1000 this week, let alone 1100, but we know these numbers coming Wednesday are game changing.

I intend to sell CC's quite aggressively, but not til SP is back near 1200.