One would think that with Tesla saying that year over year for like 2+ years now(?) that the analysts would start using an annual 50% growth rate.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm sitting on various BPS around $1050/$950 for 2/4 and am thinking I'll give the banks a few days to digest and update their models.
If the macros don't sabotage, a 10% pop between now and next Friday should be in the cards. It's very simple math, and unlike our more nebulous value sentiments of years past, the banks should be able to figure this one out.
Raise your hand if you think anything's gonna stop Elon in the next 18 months. No one? That's what I thought.
$12-17/share looks pretty good for 2022, depending on supply chains.
If the macros don't sabotage, a 10% pop between now and next Friday should be in the cards. It's very simple math, and unlike our more nebulous value sentiments of years past, the banks should be able to figure this one out.
Raise your hand if you think anything's gonna stop Elon in the next 18 months. No one? That's what I thought.
$12-17/share looks pretty good for 2022, depending on supply chains.
Another day of trading today with my simple rule of "Buy Low sell High" and I ended with these open positions. Closed the 15X Feb 04 1200 calls I had for a 5% loss, just did not think these were in play after the fed meeting.
7X 01/28 BPS 830/760(looks like these are safe)
4X 01/28 945 PUTS(Average price 21.00 after I legged out the lower strike of the BPS): This might require some work tomorrow to close but I'm fine with assignment
5X Feb 18 920 Puts(Average price 70$ expecting IV crush will allow me to roll these up to 02/04 and 02/11)
25X Jan 28 1150/1375 BCS(opened these on the spike earlier so these are VERY safe)
12X Jan 28 1150 calls(same as above safe)
I agree with some of the other comments in this thread and prefer selling naked puts aggressively instead of BPS. BPS is probably a good option just to use out any additional margin at really safe strikes(25% OTM).
I will be aggressively selling calls/BCS over the next couple of months. Given the macro uncertainty and lack of any wow factors that Wall Street understands I believe we will trade in a range with some downside risk.
7X 01/28 BPS 830/760(looks like these are safe)
4X 01/28 945 PUTS(Average price 21.00 after I legged out the lower strike of the BPS): This might require some work tomorrow to close but I'm fine with assignment
5X Feb 18 920 Puts(Average price 70$ expecting IV crush will allow me to roll these up to 02/04 and 02/11)
25X Jan 28 1150/1375 BCS(opened these on the spike earlier so these are VERY safe)
12X Jan 28 1150 calls(same as above safe)
I agree with some of the other comments in this thread and prefer selling naked puts aggressively instead of BPS. BPS is probably a good option just to use out any additional margin at really safe strikes(25% OTM).
I will be aggressively selling calls/BCS over the next couple of months. Given the macro uncertainty and lack of any wow factors that Wall Street understands I believe we will trade in a range with some downside risk.
ChefBoyardee
Member
Earnings was solid, I think the reduction in P/E will help put a floor in, but I don’t see this rocketing back to 1200 in the next few weeks. Hoping for a slow and steady climb now that we’re back in the channel.
My game plan I think will be to sell safe put spreads under the channel, and use the proceeds to close my furthest out rolled positions to accumulate buying power for a big second half of the year.
This reminds me a lot of May 2021, but with the next big move higher being more imminent
My game plan I think will be to sell safe put spreads under the channel, and use the proceeds to close my furthest out rolled positions to accumulate buying power for a big second half of the year.
This reminds me a lot of May 2021, but with the next big move higher being more imminent
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
What's the "not advice" on managing these positions that I have open which all expire on 1/28?
950/1000 BPS
925/975 BPS
900/950 BPS
Unless there is a substantial run up tomorrow, it's looking like I'm going to have to roll them. Open to suggestions on dates (2/4? 2/11?), etc.
Bad bad macros were really not something I was taking into account when I opened these weeks ago (when we were at ~1200).
950/1000 BPS
925/975 BPS
900/950 BPS
Unless there is a substantial run up tomorrow, it's looking like I'm going to have to roll them. Open to suggestions on dates (2/4? 2/11?), etc.
Bad bad macros were really not something I was taking into account when I opened these weeks ago (when we were at ~1200).
You might be able to get decent roll on the 900/950 so maybe roll for that one in the morning. Hopefully we open closer to 950 tomorrow.
For the other two I guess you have to hope for a nice spike, not sure what’s in store for tomorrow. From a TA perspective 961/962 is a key level. If we can break that with good volume then 1000 is possible tomorrow.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I agree we climb next week IF macros are good and the NASDAQ recovers. If not, we could see 800s again.
scubastevo80
Member
I’m in the same mindset - I think it’s iron condor time - 20% each way. This is of course if we don’t get wiped out at the open tomorrow. Would love to see some strength above $950 tomorrow so we can get our roll on.I agree we climb next week IF macros are good and the NASDAQ recovers. If not, we could see 800s again.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I’m hoping for 1099 close on Friday. I sold some LCC’s to help relieve the stress of the 2 sets of BPS I didn’t kick down the road.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Excellent idea. This is exactly what an IC is made for.
Buy to open $1170 call
Sell to open $930 call
Sell to open $930 put
Buy to open $740 put
10 contracts for $86,170 credit
$843/$1016 breakeven on either side
Is this pretty much what you're thinking? Breakevens are about 9% on either side of $930
I think he was thinking 20% OTM on both sides. Your tight IC would make me nervous tomorrow when we don't know if there could be a 10% move in either direction in the coming days.
We in the biz call this an iron fly. It's also unbalanced. I'm gonna guess he meant the short legs are 20% out.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I wouldn't do anything in the next week that gets you smoked by moderate volatility. We could literally go anywhere from $800 to $1200 and I wouldn't be too surprised.
Advice!
Advice!
Got it, so possibly something like this.
Just out of curiosity I split the difference below. Tempting to play with max pain settling around $1000 but I'll watch from the sidelines.
scubastevo80
Member
That's what I'm thinking (the first one). It all depends on how I get out of this situation today, likely a combo of rolls to lower put strikes and add BCS 20-25% out. I've played with too much fire lately, and the premium are high for a reason.
I still have Jan28 1000/900 and 950/900. I bet the SP is going to drop, causing everyone to roll, and then land tomorrow at 970 or something stupid.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Then don't roll today. Simple.
EDIT: I'm not doing anything today with my -1025/+875p, or my -950p/+900p.
The best action is no action.
EDIT2: wow @IV crush. Yesterday I sold 1250cc's for $1.05 each, at close yesterday they traded around $1.25. Now at open they trade at $0.09 (!!).
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