Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Knightshade]

So do you sign up for new CCs every year to take advantage of the signup bonuses? And then cancel after finishing the payments?

We do new signups throughout the year for bonuses... tax time is just when we do the really high spend ones (normal ones are like spend 3-5k in 3-4 months, the bigger ones are spend 10-50k in a few months).

Typically if the card has no annual fee there's no good reason to close it (unless you plan to churn it again for the same bonus)

If it does have a fee it'll usually be closed after 1 year-- though in a handful of cases the other benefits of such cards are worth keeping (for example we have one that costs $450/yr, but gives you a $250 airline credit, a $250 Hilton credit, and a free night at any Hilton each year- plus some other benefits (Hilton status, airport lounge access, etc)- so that card is profitable to keep year over year.

We've opened dozens and dozens of cards each over the years, and gotten tens of thousands of dollars in "free" premium travel out of it for not much effort beyond a little bit of paperwork/accounting.... probably not worth the effort for the folks with 8 and 9 figure net worths, but us 7 figure peons like nice vacations too!

 

[LightngMcQueen]

It is from watching how things play out. Look at the options volume:

View attachment 785662

See the put spike at 1000 and the call spike at 1020? And they sort of meet at 1010... It doesn't guarantee anything, but it does seem to be a good predictor. (At least on the last trading day of the expiration.)

Yes but this is volume not open interest. You might be very well right, but I am trying to see if there is really useful signal here to be used in the future.

Let's take 1050 strike price volume how do we know if the volume spike means increasing/ decreasing open interest at 1050? Is it driven by buyers or sellers?

For all we know open interest could be decreasing (contracts closed) around 1020 and increasing (contracts open) at 1050, 1100 and this would also result in increased trading volume at those price points.

 

[MP3Mike]

Yes but this is volume not open interest. You might be very well right, but I am trying to see if there is really useful signal here to be used in the future.

Let's take 1050 strike price volume how do we know if the volume spike means increasing/ decreasing open interest at 1050? Is it driven by buyers or sellers?

For all we know open interest could be decreasing (contracts closed) around 1020 and increasing (contracts open) at 1050, 1100 and this would also result in increased trading volume at those price points.

Yes, I understand that it is volume, and we don't know if it represents opens or closes. But I have been watching the volume for these "spreads" on the day of expiration for a while, and it seems to be a fairly good predictor.

We also know that 1000 only had ~7k open puts and 1020 only had ~5k open calls at the start of the day. So with volume for both being greater than 40k today we know there have been a lot of opens. (I would say at least 20k.)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Wimped out and BTC my $1005CC for today at 30% profit. Originally bought with SP at 962 just before it really took off.

Didn't want SP to spike this afternoon and have to roll to 4/1. Now I can sit and wait for $1035 again to sell the next batch

 

[Yoona]

i am daytrading 4/1 -c1100/+c1200 and that is a lot of fun

i am on vacation and traveling lots... reading this thread and trading and following the chart ate up my phone's data plan

methinks the market manipulators need to pay for my hotels and flights

yesterday: bought xxx shares @1015 and then STO 3/25 CC 1015 credit 13.45, 1 DTE

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This mega effort to hold down below $1000 should be monetized, no? I can't day trade in my IRA, so I'll have to wait til the end of the day to buy 4/1 calls if we're still below 1k. Should be able to double by Mon/Tues if no macro storms.

 

[bkp_duke]

This mega effort to hold down below $1000 should be monetized, no? I can't day trade in my IRA, so I'll have to wait til the end of the day to buy 4/1 calls if we're still below 1k. Should be able to double by Mon/Tues if no macro storms.

Unlike yesterday, today TSLA is trading pretty parallel to the QQQ and the Nasdaq is down 100 points.

I'm sure there is manipulation going on, but it's not as blatantly obvious as at other times.

 

[Yoona]

TSLA RSI increasing... is it time to sell CC or BCS?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Unlike yesterday, today TSLA is trading pretty parallel to the QQQ and the Nasdaq is down 100 points.

I'm sure there is manipulation going on, but it's not as blatantly obvious as at other times.

Today has been a great day for me to think about how MM's do their job. Plenty of reason for traders, hedge funds, or anyone not interested in the TSLA mission to take profits. Especially intra-week traders.

Now we get to watch MM's "talking" to these guys via capping and shorting. Which is their job and I guess perfectly fine? It's like a game of chicken where the various MM's are telling traders they've reached max profit for the week and it's time to cash out. In other words, "If you don't sell......I WILL."

Interesting stuff. I still feel like it took a good bit of effort to smush us down to 1k and certainly there's all that residual shorting from earlier in the week. We've gone through plenty of periods where we get in this pattern of MM mega shorting Th/Fri and then unwind Mon/Tues. I think we're gonna be in a pretty dramatic version of that til we cross 1200.

 

[bkp_duke]

Today has been a great day for me to think about how MM's do their job. Plenty of reason for traders, hedge funds, or anyone not interested in the TSLA mission to take profits. Especially intra-week traders.

Now we get to watch MM's "talking" to these guys via capping and shorting. Which is their job and I guess perfectly fine? It's like a game of chicken where the various MM's are telling traders they've reached max profit for the week and it's time to cash out. In other words, "If you don't sell......I WILL."

Interesting stuff. I still feel like it took a good bit of effort to smush us down to 1k and certainly there's all that residual shorting from earlier in the week. We've gone through plenty of periods where we get in this pattern of MM mega shorting Th/Fri and then unwind Mon/Tues. I think we're gonna be in a pretty dramatic version of that til we cross 1200.

Volume is pretty light today compared to all the other days this week. It did take effort and $$$ to keep us around 1k, but nothing like it would have in a high vol day.


I got crushed earlier this year in my trading account, so I've gone much more conservative. Lots of ITM puts and calls (i.e. the wheel) and fewer spreads.

 

[traxila]

Volume is pretty light today compared to all the other days this week. It did take effort and $$$ to keep us around 1k, but nothing like it would have in a high vol day.


I got crushed earlier this year in my trading account, so I've gone much more conservative. Lots of ITM puts and calls (i.e. the wheel) and fewer spreads.

Sorry about that.

I experimented with them as well. I traded really conservative numbers (minimum 20% out. Usually at least 30% out with DTE of less than 10). I had difficulty focusing all the time when they were on and with the volatility we had I almost got whacked a lot several times. Managed to swear it off with small profits overall.

Given my day job, decided not to try to be too clever. Sticking with CSP (which I think are working out great! Guess I might feel differently if TSLA wasn't TSLA) and CCs although the CCs have gotten into a little trouble, but eh, plan is to roll forever as long as I can squeeze out a dime or a price improvement I will be OK. Still trading calls at times as well.

I am sleeping better.

 

[BornToFly]

TSLA RSI increasing... is it time to sell CC or BCS?

View attachment 785691

I will open 1/3 of possible contracts for next Friday before close today. Looking at either 1200/1350 or 1250/1400. Based on your post, the 1200 might be safe enough...?

P.S.- I will wait until next week to open the rest, hopefully on a pop Monday or Tuesday.

 

[scubastevo80]

TSLA RSI increasing... is it time to sell CC or BCS?

View attachment 785691

I sold 4/22 $1200 CC's in my retirement account two days ago for $13.50. If we get sideways trading before earnings, I may close them early, otherwise, I'm comfortable with the risk given the current environment. I expect TSLA to continue to trend upward, but I imagine this will be more of the

I was just burnt on BCS (bought back -915/+1015s for 4/1 and 995/1100 for 3/25) for not-so-friendly losses, so I'm avoiding those from now on unless we have a 5% plus up day and the premiums warrant the risk.

 

[MP3Mike]

I closed out on my IC for the week at about ~30% return on capital at risk. (I had added a 1025/1030 BCS to replace the 1005/1010 that I closed earlier.)

I'm making slow progress at earning money to pay the taxes for last year...

 

[MP3Mike]

So they sort of did a head fake there making it look like hey were targeting $1000, when they really wanted $1010. (And got within 64 cents of it.)

With some play money I bought a few 4/8 $1550 calls, and then sold some 4/1 1550s against them for 20% of the cost... (If we hit $1550 by 4/1 I won't complain.)

 

[Chicagoguy]

It is from watching how things play out. Look at the options volume:

View attachment 785662

See the put spike at 1000 and the call spike at 1020? And they sort of meet at 1010... It doesn't guarantee anything, but it does seem to be a good predictor. (At least on the last trading day of the expiration.)

I will say that normally the gap is wider, ~$50, instead of the $20 gap seen this week.

spot on!

 

[ReddyLeaf]

From the options volume it looks like they are shooting for a close near $1010...

Missed it by $0.64!!!!!! Prediction for next week?

 

[MP3Mike]

Missed it by $0.64!!!!!! Prediction for next week?

This method doesn't really work until a couple days before end of the week. But if I had to make a guess I would say the range is $1000 to $1050, with a close closer to $1015-1020, that ignores all of the higher strike calls, which probably isn't wise. (But really this is NOT-ADVICE.)

But it is handy for helping decide how to deal with close to ATM options mid-week. (Why I closed my 1005/1010 BCS and opened 1020/1025 in its place; I didn't roll because I took advantage of the volatility during the day to trade on "strength".)

 

[wnorris]

SpotGamma mentions TSLA call buying this week in a quick 10 minute video. He also highlights parallels to where macros are now to the last large market drop. Good to keep in mind if you are betting on a move up due to good production numbers. Be cautious.

 

[jaspa]

SpotGamma mentions TSLA call buying this week in a quick 10 minute video. He also highlights parallels to where macros are now to the last large market drop. Good to keep in mind if you are betting on a move up due to good production numbers. Be cautious.

Brett at SpotGamma has been pretty spot on with his market predictions based on reviewing option flow. I read his daily write up and it's geared towards S&P, and his daily support/resistance levels that he provides have held up. His writeups since OPEX expiration has had a tone of cautiousness, that the market is unhedged and that the recent run up can quickly reverse (as he discusses in the video).