AquaY
Member
I heard a rumor Tesla has a small factory in Germany somewhere that might produce a few cars this quarter
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
No way Berlin can run at a rate to replace Shanghai this quarter. Not even close. And Berlin doesn't make Model 3s.
I opened a BPS too early yesterday as well. 800 - 1000 for me. Hoping we catch the bottom here and I can still close for full profit, but with a 200 wide spread, I feel ok about that one (just wish i had waited a bit longer yesterday for either a lower entry or more $$). Staying more conservative with number of spreads open and available backing margin to deal with required rolls - some hard lessons the last couple months on that topic.
AquaY
Member
You assume Shanghai will be shut down for the quarter?
I think that's extremely unlikely
I can send this to you via DM, ping me. cannot access your profile
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Shanghai is also where the battery packs and motors for Berlin currently come from.
Also where nearly all Model 3s sold outside NA come from and Berlin isn't set up to make those at all.
I don't think they're shut all quarter, but remaining shut any length of time will materially reduce production and deliveries for Q2. Profits as well since Shanghai has the best margins of any plant.
That's not what I meant. Berlin will probably take several quarters to get up to speed. Tesla's financials will take a hit if Shanghai is closed 2 or more weeks this quarter, which means sold Puts and BPSs aren't as safe as we thought on Monday. We should continue to be careful....
But Berlin and Austin could clearly replace several weeks of lost Shanghai production, if it doesn’t run into month(s), and Shanghai could eventually run at max rate once it reopens. However, everything I see makes me think China is about to pay the piper socially and economically for misguided Covid policies, particularly promoting domestic vaccines with limited efficacy.
AquaY
Member
It's been 1 week. Going on 2.
I think the probability of nothing being produced for more than a month to be very unlikely.
They are also doing maintenance and other things while it is down.
Berlin will produce some thing this quarter. I think some are way over reacting.
We'll just have to wait a few months to find out. I hope I'm right but it wouldn't be the first time I wasn't.
This is interesting:
"Tesla now expects Gigafactory Shanghai shutdown to extend to at least Friday – missing out on over 24,000 EVs"
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I did the 1150s.... the sold calls are at 59% profit right now... temping to close these way early and sell new ones Friday if we get a bounce from the rodeo
So what is everyone thinking on FED minutes coming up in half an hour.
Has to be a short term buy catalyst, right? Another step down from here would fall into full blown correction in 48 hours with almost nothing having changed.
Has to be a short term buy catalyst, right? Another step down from here would fall into full blown correction in 48 hours with almost nothing having changed.
Someone always knows something.
Did a couple of things this morning -
Closed my $1150 CC's at 95% - opened Monday at $25 each - closed for $1
Opened 04/14 BPS - $1040 / $940 for $30 each! Will look to close these Friday
BTO $1100 calls - $2.5 each will close these today if they hit $4
I want to be out of options on Friday close and unless we get a big Monday pop again will be waiting for CPI on Tuesday.
Big pop Monday = aggressive CC's (I want to be called away) and sell more BPS on Tuesday.
I have to admit that I'm feeling uneasy with the macro, LEAPS got squished today and I'm trying to think of how to make the most of a downturn
Thinking to sell monthly calls, say 4/29 -c1100's, these being backed by DITM calls... my rationale is that we have zero idea where the stock price will be by then, just as likely they'll expire OTM as go ITM
If they did go OTM, then what? Well maybe there's a simple roll to be had, or a roll with a put straddle, or maybe just sell a few of the underlying LEAPS to cover it - they will be up more in value as their Delta is higher
Anyone got other bright ideas?
Thinking to sell monthly calls, say 4/29 -c1100's, these being backed by DITM calls... my rationale is that we have zero idea where the stock price will be by then, just as likely they'll expire OTM as go ITM
If they did go OTM, then what? Well maybe there's a simple roll to be had, or a roll with a put straddle, or maybe just sell a few of the underlying LEAPS to cover it - they will be up more in value as their Delta is higher
Anyone got other bright ideas?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
FWIW ended up putting a limit order in at 2/3rds profit, just filled on the dip down to ~1028 a little bit ago.
Spiked right up to 1055 now proving once again lucky>good.
I hope to see evidence that the .25 point raise was considered not enough, but sort of what they could do this time. Or at least evidence that they realized, at the time of the meeting, that the .25 point raise still left them in a strongly stimulative stance towards the economy.
I've been hearing that in the public comments I've seen reported since the meeting so I'm hopeful.
Between this and the CPI number next Tuesday I expect macro to be dominating and to be more likely down than up. Maybe there is a brief rally in response but I expect 900s before 1100s.
Good thing TSLA joined the S&P 500 and damped out that volatility. Just imagine what it would be like otherwise (/s)
I didn't like being out entirely. I decided that I like the 1100 strike on the call side, so I've opened 1100 strike for next week @ 14. I believe down is more likely than up from here (over the next week) and that $14 is a great weekly result. If the shares reverse back into the 1100s I'll be able to roll with them - I consider new ATH to be nearly no chance, but if we get there then I also expect I can roll up to at least 1200 and probably a lot farther.
I also opened some 950 csp for this week. I decided that I didn't want to establish a position for next week just yet. I also decided that I'm not interested in put spreads in the current environment. If shares are down around 900 or 850 then its probably time for a small bit of put spread leverage, but no more than 2x of what I'd have via csp.
I'm even thinking, should we see a rebound in the share price later in the week, of buying some puts for next week expiration specifically to take advantage of the post CPI number reaction. So far I'm 0 for 2 on these sorts of recent trades. I think I've been swinging too hard for the fences and striking out. So probably a closer strike and fewer contracts - look for a 2 or 3x kind of result.
I have no plans to buy calls for Austin party or Q1 analyst call as I see those as minimal catalysts that will confirm what we know as long term investors, and be a nothingburger for the short term crowd. The larger macro picture, as I see it, is back in control and I expect the inflation measure (CPI) to be >8 (previous month # 7.9).
I also opened some 950 csp for this week. I decided that I didn't want to establish a position for next week just yet. I also decided that I'm not interested in put spreads in the current environment. If shares are down around 900 or 850 then its probably time for a small bit of put spread leverage, but no more than 2x of what I'd have via csp.
I'm even thinking, should we see a rebound in the share price later in the week, of buying some puts for next week expiration specifically to take advantage of the post CPI number reaction. So far I'm 0 for 2 on these sorts of recent trades. I think I've been swinging too hard for the fences and striking out. So probably a closer strike and fewer contracts - look for a 2 or 3x kind of result.
I have no plans to buy calls for Austin party or Q1 analyst call as I see those as minimal catalysts that will confirm what we know as long term investors, and be a nothingburger for the short term crowd. The larger macro picture, as I see it, is back in control and I expect the inflation measure (CPI) to be >8 (previous month # 7.9).
So, in reference to my post above... during the pop after the FOMC minutes were released I STO 15x TSLA 4/20 -c1100 & 15x GOOGL -c2800
Markets feel very bearish to me right now and overheated after the recent rally, so worth trying this new strategy
One thing for sure, I totally suck with weeklies, so give this a go
Markets feel very bearish to me right now and overheated after the recent rally, so worth trying this new strategy
One thing for sure, I totally suck with weeklies, so give this a go
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