Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[phantasms]

Is there anything we could take advantage of on the Twitter option side? I'm still a bit of a n00b but I see I could sell a Jan 2024 Put at $95 for about $50. So it locks up about $10k to make a quick $5k. If the company goes private doesn't that put simply expire worthless? What are the mechanics here? This seems like easy money but I'm not very bright so please tell me what I'm missing.

 

[Drezil]

My wife would shoot me if I followed her. I'll have to take your word for it.

Her appeal is just her gender-expression. She is a maker. And lesbian. You can tell your wife she poses no danger

Edit: But she is one of the very few that communicate outside of china, calls out the government (as long as it poses no danger to her) and is no state puppet or controlled. And she has too much influence and publicity to "just vanish".

 

[mongo]

Is there anything we could take advantage of on the Twitter option side? I'm still a bit of a n00b but I see I could sell a Jan 2024 Put at $95 for about $50. So it locks up about $10k to make a quick $5k. If the company goes private doesn't that put simply expire worthless? What are the mechanics here? This seems like easy money but I'm not very bright so please tell me what I'm missing.

A 95 strike put would be ITM if the deal closes at $54.20 with $40.80 of value, so net $9.20.

 

[phantasms]

A 95 strike put would be ITM if the deal closes at $54.20 with $40.80 of value, so net $9.20.

Ah yes of course, it goes the other way. I'm usually a call guy. lol

So something like this could, potentially, be free money.

 

[phantasms]

I wonder if buying Twitter shares now and then selling the $55 covered call as far out as possible is the best move?

 

[mongo]

Ah yes of course, it goes the other way. I'm usually a call guy. lol

So something like this could, potentially, be free money

Yes, *if* the deal goes through.
Selling calls above $55 might be less risky given likelyhood of TWTR getting there on its own and potental drop if buyout is rejected (which hurts short puts).

I wonder if buying Twitter shares now and then selling the $55 covered call as far out as possible is the best move?

Potentially.

 

[scubastevo80]

Is there anything we could take advantage of on the Twitter option side? I'm still a bit of a n00b but I see I could sell a Jan 2024 Put at $95 for about $50. So it locks up about $10k to make a quick $5k. If the company goes private doesn't that put simply expire worthless? What are the mechanics here? This seems like easy money but I'm not very bright so please tell me what I'm missing.

TWTR was up big last week on the Elon filing, up again the following day on the Board news and it’s been trending down since. I think last weeks huge IV spike was when the money was to be made. At this point, it’s likely contentious given the public comments and the direction of the stock short term is anyones guess.

Regarding the other comments about this noise impacting TSLA - I think it’s peanuts. Elon already successfully manages multiple companies/projects and the time and financial capital he throws at Twitter are a de minimus risk to me. This is a pet project for him and he won’t contribute significant time and effort unless he plans to takeover the company and make it profitable (or private). I think his goal is as he stated - uncensored freedom of speech.

Edit - I’m on the road today and just read the takeover bid news so my comments above do not include that fact. I think the market price (20% off the bid price) is reflective of the likelihood of this actually closing. BCS 55/60 one month out could net about $1700 on $10k risk. Tempting.

Edit #2- 2 weeks out BCS 54/59 same risk and return and nets $0.30 above Elons buyout price.

 

[Knightshade]

This is a pet project for him and he won’t contribute significant time and effort unless he plans to takeover the company and make it profitable (or private).

His offer letter literally says he plans to do that.

I think his goal is as he stated - uncensored freedom of speech.

Given Brandolini's law (among other reasons), 100% unfettered and unmoderated speech, distributed quickly worldwide, is an absolutely horrendous idea.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Well, interesting day. Thx Elon. For those interested in Twitter options, don’t forget the famous 420 and “stock is too high” tweets. On topic, I closed out all this week’s CCs for pennies & profit. Also closed out a 4/22 CC for ~50% profit, bought some +c1100s and a few shares. Burned down my available cash to my comfort level and will now wait it out. Yesterday I puled back another Jan23 p1000 and moved it to 4/22 (wish I had waited to sell until this AM, darn I really should listen to adiggs and only sell into strength). Oh well, I’m positioned relatively neutral to bullish for next week. Still waiting to sell more CCs.

 

[bkp_duke]

Was wheeling with 7 x 1000 calls that expired today. Thought the shares were destined to be assigned (I'm fine with that), but looking like that may not happen now.

 

[UltradoomY]

Was wheeling with 7 x 1000 calls that expired today. Thought the shares were destined to be assigned (I'm fine with that), but looking like that may not happen now.

Same with my $1005's I sold twice this week for $25 total - now sitting at $1.45 - gonna let them expire and resell Monday!
It's fun when you want them gone, such as a Buy/Write as well.

 

[intelligator]

This is as close to sun I've gotten. Yesterday's down trend had formed with a good feel we'd be closing near 1K today. Whether it ages well or not, I'd sold 4/14 -1025/+1050 BCS yesterday into strength, bought back today into weakness capturing 97%

 

[LightngMcQueen]

...she has too much influence and publicity to "just vanish".

Now we know what Jack Ma and Fan Bingbing were missing, before they went missing, ... probably influence and publicity

On serious note she seems to be a good TWTR Follow... even it is hard to believe she can get away with her posts without some implicit patronage.

 

[AquaY]

Based on data from the last 4 years. I compared Current Week Tue Open against Next Week Fri Close.

In 2022: next week's Fri Close is about -10% to +16% from current week's Tue Open.

(obviously, no data for 4/5 since 4/15 hasn't happened yet)

View attachment 792887

This is very interesting data you did.
I'm curious where we close today and if it falls in line.
Although today is a Thursday close. Do you think because it is a Thursday instead of a normal close it falls outside this data? You did say Tuesday open to Friday close of course

 

[Yoona]

This is very interesting data you did.
I'm curious where we close today and if it falls in line.
Although today is a Thursday close. Do you think because it is a Thursday instead of a normal close it falls outside this data? You did say Tuesday open to Friday close of course

i'll check this when i get home

my algorithm knows if Mon/Fri are holidays and so report will use today's close

ttyl

me at beauty spa (OF COURSE)

 

[adiggs]

Yesterday's close of this week 950 puts was a good choice; the 900 puts for next week are up nicely in value and because I freed up the cash backing yesterday, I was able to open the new position with no difficulties.

I've opened next week 900 csp for the most part. In one case I've gone with 2x as many 900/600 put spreads as I'd be able to do via csp. The $300 wide spread is pretty arbitrary - it's wide enough that the insurance is nearly free ($.08), while also keeping me to my 2x max leverage yardstick. In for about $9.

That leaves me with a 900/1100 strangle for next week. I didn't enter the position as a strangle though I do like being in strangles such as this.


I'm of the opinion that down is more likely than up next week due to macro, but earnings is in there and could easily push things the other way (up). For me personally, ideal would be finishing in the low 900s next week. I'm looking to buy shares at a low price, and I need the low price side of the equation to carry through.

This is the downside to the wheel, even the more macro version I'm practicing right now, where I have cash / want shares, but don't want to buy high. I've got a lot more cash than normal and I want shares. H'mm - maybe I'm close enough to a low share price to do some buy-writes. I'll be pondering that.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Is there anything we could take advantage of on the Twitter option side? I'm still a bit of a n00b but I see I could sell a Jan 2024 Put at $95 for about $50. So it locks up about $10k to make a quick $5k. If the company goes private doesn't that put simply expire worthless? What are the mechanics here? This seems like easy money but I'm not very bright so please tell me what I'm missing.

Took me awhile to come up with this. Just did this:
6/17 TWTR bcs 55/80

I got $1.50 per for risking $25 of margin for 2 months. It should be safe, since it's outside of Musk's final offer. And if he recinds the offer, then TWTR should drop and I get to profit off the short position.

 

[ninpb]

Got myself into a jam yesterday going for "easy" money but luckily came out ahead today.
Yesterday STO 4/14 1025C when SP was 980 (closed around 1025). Gut couldn't handle it so rolled to 4/22 for a large credit.
This morning closed for double the profit than I originally hoped for. Today's drop was on my side and gained a few more calluses.

 

[juanmedina]

Took me awhile to come up with this. Just did this:
6/17 TWTR bcs 55/80

I got $1.50 per for risking $25 of margin for 2 months. It should be safe, since it's outside of Musk's final offer. And if he recinds the offer, then TWTR should drop and I get to profit off the short position.

this guy offered 60 bucks:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514652347103948804

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

this guy offered 60 bucks:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514652347103948804

"But despite offering a higher share price than Musk, Sun has not so far made a formal offer directly through to Twitter."

SEC filing, or it doesn't happen. That's what I'm relying on.