No logical reason for nearly 10% drop today. This is why 20% OTM on spreads, 5 DTE.
I've been expecting the share price to be going down over the next month. Mostly for the simple reason that we'll be in between earnings call / production report, and that's a great window for manipulating the share price down. And not much in the way of news to change the narrative.
Admittedly I was looking for 900 share price in more like a week than today.
I'm kind of liking it too - I've been wanting to buy and I'd much rather buy at 800 than 1000
Someone please tell us when we hit the bottom so I can buy some calls
I decided that 905ish was a bottom and started my own buying. I picked up June '24 500s - I had previously decided I was going to use that date and strike for share replacement purchases. Keeping them on the same expiration and strike will simplify my life.
This gets me to about 2-3 units of cash to 1 unit of shares. I'd like to be closer to 1 to 1 at this share price. However I think that we're not down as far as we'll go, so I'm taking the opportunity cost / risk that the share price doesn't keep going down, thereby missing out on this great purchase opportunity.
I'll probably get to 1 cash to 2 shares around the 800 strike, and then even less cash at 650 or 700.
Sigh. Days like this I wish I had a margin account. lol
Any LEAP suggestions?
For share replacement leaps I'm using June '24 500s. These cost me $524 earlier today or about $120 time value for 2 years (and a bit) and a small bit of leverage - roughly 1.7x over buying shares.
The big drop today let me close my 1100 and 1130 calls expiring this Friday for 95% gain. With the uptick rule going into effect for tomorrow I expect at least flat, if not up. That'll be a good time to open new calls.
I also used the big drop to open new puts - 800s and 750s. Those are for next week 5/6 (I meant for them to be for this Friday, but got the expiration wrong; 5 times over 5 transactions
). Still a position I like. I also did these as put spreads with 500 strike insurance. The put spreads enabled me to sell about 2x put spreads over CSP - that's as much leverage as I'm looking to make use of these days (2x of csp or 100% share ownership).
Even the 800 strike I'm comfortable with as I don't see us going below 750 (previous strong support) and I've got a lot of room to roll down.