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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Well we broke our most recent low so I think there will be more downward pressure. No idea where we finish today but looks like some big bets coming for next week's 645 puts.
There's no hope for the rest of us when one of the most discipled traders in this forum is worried about his 0DTE positions
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Today is a big OPEX day with a lot of puts expiring. I had anticipated a rise today as the puts cleared and dealers (MMs) had to buy back their hedges. No idea if this idea was wrong or if the latest drama derailed this theory.Well we broke our most recent low so I think there will be more downward pressure. No idea where we finish today but looks like some big bets coming for next week's 645 puts.
There's no hope for the rest of us when one of the most discipled traders in this forum is worried about his 0DTE positions
Got sick of waiting and pulled the trigger and sold 750 calls for next Friday. This is against my better judgement and usually means we will see a big rally today and Monday. ;-)
Edit: I should clarify that my goal here is for theta to work its magic. I do not believe we are going to sustain any rally with as many macro and Elon related overhangs as we have at the moment.
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Agreed. It's been working great so far. The other thing that supports this is the high IV. It is my experience that IV is rising when stocks are dropping, basically because of bearish sentiment. With theta decay and IV crush to our advantage + the bearish market sentiment I honestly think selling calls on any decent strength is the way to go even if it feels unnatural.
For short term sentiment it is important that TSLA closes above its 5 day SMA. Until that happens my plan is to sell aggressive calls. 5 day SMA currently is at 718.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Eying June 2024 $1500c/$1600c debit spreads @ $9-11 or so. That's a 10-to-1 wager that in two years TSLA PE won't be <50.
Edit: Just executed at $9.
Edit: Just executed at $9.
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Waiting for Godot is easier that waiting for SP strength. Ok, it’s official, I’m done. I just blew all my free cash again. Don’t I ever learn? Can’t believe that I got shares at $664.xx. Crazy. Ok, time to get outside and enjoy life while we still can.
Edit: will we hit -9.9% (somewhere near 639?)? How about $621 (about 50% of ATH)? Yikes.
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scubastevo80
Member
Converted 56shares to a Jun'24 $400 LEAP when price touched $680. Cost was $381, so hopefully my foray into LEAP leverage helps. I'm not one to call a bottom, but I really can't see a company that's printing money with this much long-term upside trading in the mid $600s for long. Inflation, Russia/Ukraine, COVID and supply chain bear scenarios are, in my opinion, priced in. The wildcard to me is when you have the next wave of retail panic selling at these bargain prices - and again, will be short lived. Twelve months and 3-4 earnings reports from now (inclusive of Cybertruck production, Optimus development and FSD improvements) I'd be shocked if we weren't easily able to get back over $1k. Famous last words...
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I think we're closing green today, so beware!
I don't know about these but I bought a couple of Jun 24 +500/-1500 spreads. A day trader I follow on twitter thinks 644 is the next stop but maybe they will get there next week.
Thinking about this again I think the 700s might be decent lottos or if you have the cash maybe like a few 650 ITM calls expiring today might be the best value.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
5/27 BPS $500/400 @ $2.10
Selling more than 24% OTM for >2% premium seems worth the extra time risk when we're already at an absurdly attractive SP.
Selling more than 24% OTM for >2% premium seems worth the extra time risk when we're already at an absurdly attractive SP.
dc_h
Active Member
So much for selling more CC's on the bounce this morning. Congrats to anyone who sold on the open.
666.11 ... geez , so much for thinking the 660 and 650 strikes would be safe
EDIT: I've been avoiding rolls when possible. Got distracted this morning, lost the close out opportunity. Rolled 660/610 to 625/575 5/27, small credit ... would really like to see the 650/600 through the close today.
EDIT: I've been avoiding rolls when possible. Got distracted this morning, lost the close out opportunity. Rolled 660/610 to 625/575 5/27, small credit ... would really like to see the 650/600 through the close today.
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scubastevo80
Member
Not me. I'm avoiding this short-term volatility. We're too low and having too many +/-5% days, I'm just loading up long exposure. All shares, a LEAP, the Jun'24 +1000/-1200 spread. I have 2 underwater BPS but they were both rolled out - one to 10/21 and one to Jan'23. If we are able to claw back to $1000 by Jan of next year I'll be in fantastic shape. If a P/E of 30 is the 80, then well, looks like we'll all be waiting a while...
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