scubastevo80
Member
"Remember Sully when I promised to kill you last... I lied" Sold 5/27 BPS -550/+500 for $4.5. Will look to close this out on any strength on Monday. Do others feel like mid-$500s and lower are safe here?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
bballshinobi
Member
Safe for next week... maybe lol. I think we are definitely going to $500-550 at some point this year though.
Like others here, my paper losses are staggering. We need a reversal next week! I have no doubt the SP will be climbing as we get closer to the end of the quarter, but the problem is not loosing all my shares before we get there. If I have to go to cash, I’m seriously considering converting to LEAPS. I just don’t like the risk of LEAPS because of the time factor. Would hate to go from losing 75% to 100% just because the market stays flat too long.…
Apologies for being kinda correct
As promised, I sold 20x -p600's, as it happens, way too early for $10, but I was out-and-about and set an order before I left, never would have imagined it would drop like this, especially given that pre-market was green all the way
And to think I thought the -c750's I sold yesterday were a bit "edgy", closed those out today already for 80%
Crazy!
And one silver-lining is that we approach a $TSLA share price where buying actual shares becomes interesting for me - I have $500 as my target price, I salivate like Pavlov's dog when I think of selling calls against shares bought these levels...
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm looking to close out all my 5/27 BPS on Monday if there's a 5-6%+ pop on covering and the uptick rule being in effect. Probably reopen the same positions for 5/27 Tues/Wed/Thurs when they run this same play again.
My feeling is that $550/450 BPS are "safe" purely because I can punt(roll) to something like July 15 for slight strike improvement if we somehow approach ~$520 share price. If things somehow start getting more bleak from there, I can punt again to November if SP crosses below $500.
All that being said.....I'm currently selling 5/27 BPS at $500/400 strikes, after selling a few at $550/450 earlier this morning. I'm not interested in being "safe" right now, I'm looking to be "really safe". These people clearly want you guys to stop selling BPS every week.
My feeling is that $550/450 BPS are "safe" purely because I can punt(roll) to something like July 15 for slight strike improvement if we somehow approach ~$520 share price. If things somehow start getting more bleak from there, I can punt again to November if SP crosses below $500.
All that being said.....I'm currently selling 5/27 BPS at $500/400 strikes, after selling a few at $550/450 earlier this morning. I'm not interested in being "safe" right now, I'm looking to be "really safe". These people clearly want you guys to stop selling BPS every week.
Holy hell… I ended up capitulating half our shares at $635 for safety sake. I hope that was a huge mistake and we rocket up next week. Either way, I live to fight another day.
Going to watch Rescue from Gillian’s Island on YouTube from now
Going to watch Rescue from Gillian’s Island on YouTube from now
corduroy
Active Member
I threw in the towel and rolled. All I could get was down to -680 for free. The SP dropped 30% since I opened those. My mistake was trying a 21 DTE trade, not many trades can survive a 30% move against you.
I live to fight another day though, as others have said.
FYI: I think I have reached peak bearishness today. I'm not confident enough to buy this dip. I wouldn't be surprised if another 25% drop is on the table. Perhaps that is a bottom signal.
AquaY
Member
Crazy. After 3 days, closed 80% of these contracts sold Tuesday for $17.10 at $5.80 — hoping something positive happens over the weekend for more selling next week. Normally I roll and take what I can get at the moment, but just in case………
-24% will probably expire
today's -13.46% Mon-Fri OTM is the worst in the last 100 weeks
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argh.... had a hunch the MM B's would bring us back above my strikes. Oh well, couldn't hang on, ran out of extrinsic. At about 1:30pm I was -2.10 on the 650s, decided that assignment probability would be high being late in the day. Between the two rolls, I managed to keep 90% of initial credit but have to deal with whatever "they" decide for next week. On more positive note, I bought back the CC that I rolled to September, those I salvaged by keeping 75% of initial credit, freeing up shares to write calls against.
GLTA, the weekend is here.
EDIT: @Yoona ; for reference, Fidelity is my broker, not sure how their automation works. I'll take that as luck this time. One aspect of assignment that I wouldn't have mind is that with margin the interest clock starts ticking two days after trade settles but could have bought the shares and sold the same day. I wasn't of the mindset of giving that a go during these times... so many unknowns, the steady weekly downward pressure, I have time to experience that in a more positive setting.
GLTA, the weekend is here.
EDIT: @Yoona ; for reference, Fidelity is my broker, not sure how their automation works. I'll take that as luck this time. One aspect of assignment that I wouldn't have mind is that with margin the interest clock starts ticking two days after trade settles but could have bought the shares and sold the same day. I wasn't of the mindset of giving that a go during these times... so many unknowns, the steady weekly downward pressure, I have time to experience that in a more positive setting.
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oh! i thought assignment is "automatic" once extrinsic is gone (and since p650 OI is 10,000+)
Assignment only happens after hours, not during the trading day... But brokers will normally buy pack your sold puts close to the end of the day if they think they might go ITM and you don't have enough cash/margin to cover the full execution of the put. (They normally don't look at them as spreads, because they don't know if you would execute the protective put you purchased if it doesn't go ITM.)
Almost positive that’s Not true. 99% sure people here have been assigned during the trading day, myself included if I remember right.
Really? I have never seen that, and from my understanding that isn't possible. Assignments come from the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) and are assigned to brokerages at random, which then are supposed to assign them to their holders at random. They don't say when they do that process other than a request to exercise has to be requested and forwarded to the OCC "before that day’s cut-off time for accepting exercise instructions." I thought the OCC only processed those requests after trading hours. (After extended trading hours as well AFAIK.)
I suspect that whoever thought they got assigned was actually the result of their brokers risk department doing something, not an actual assignment. (I guess the end result is the same, even if the process is different.)
All my option assignments have happened after hours as well. But I have exercised my options during the trading day before.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
First- thanks again for this data, your historical OTM % info has been fantastic... was curious if you have this on the call side as well though? I'd only ever seen it on the put side (ie 20% Monday open to Friday close appears to be "safe" going back pretty much ever outside of that one covid week).
not-advice
I rolled 675s (675/500 bps) down to 635/450s for next week. The quantity is small (2x cash secured put sized positions) - one idea that's passed through my head is a roll where I turn these into csp; probably need to increase the strike price a fair bit to do that successfully. At these strikes I still feel safe with these, but if we touch say 600, then I might be looking at a 2 week roll to get the strike under 600.
This drop is amazing. The long term thesis, at least for me, remains intact. We're getting down to prices where the financials will start drawing buyers, so the resistance to going lower (spring being wound) is getting higher and higher.. This has happened before, just before the breakout from the 280-380 trading range. We'd been in that for a few years. Then just before the break through 400 the shares pull all the way back to the bottom of the previous trading range of 180-280. There were some fortunes made by people buying far OTM options for very small amounts at that level. A few months later and we were through 400, on the way to 1000 (all those are pre-split share prices).
As a result - the primary risk I continue to identify, for myself at least, isn't an even lower and lower share price. The risk I am primarily guarding against is a big / fast reaction the other way and running over covered calls. As a result I have no cc open right now and am mostly not opening. Maybe on a big up day, for a 1-3 DTE position - that sort of thing. For me this strong move into close reinforces just how fast up we can go, and how easily I could have cc get overrun.
The primary question I've got tumbling right now - I expect Monday to be flat to up (uptick rule). If Tuesday becomes another leg down, is it time to turn most of the remaining cash into more leaps? Are we getting low enough to buy speculative leaps instead of share replacements?!?
It looks like IV is increasing on the June '24 2200 strike leaps, enough so that the last big drop still has these trading around $50. Still too high for me to go looking for a high leverage long duration play, but I'm continuing to monitor.
But even more share replacement leaps is looking more and more desirable to me, despite feeling like I'm going to run out of cash.
I rolled 675s (675/500 bps) down to 635/450s for next week. The quantity is small (2x cash secured put sized positions) - one idea that's passed through my head is a roll where I turn these into csp; probably need to increase the strike price a fair bit to do that successfully. At these strikes I still feel safe with these, but if we touch say 600, then I might be looking at a 2 week roll to get the strike under 600.
This drop is amazing. The long term thesis, at least for me, remains intact. We're getting down to prices where the financials will start drawing buyers, so the resistance to going lower (spring being wound) is getting higher and higher.. This has happened before, just before the breakout from the 280-380 trading range. We'd been in that for a few years. Then just before the break through 400 the shares pull all the way back to the bottom of the previous trading range of 180-280. There were some fortunes made by people buying far OTM options for very small amounts at that level. A few months later and we were through 400, on the way to 1000 (all those are pre-split share prices).
As a result - the primary risk I continue to identify, for myself at least, isn't an even lower and lower share price. The risk I am primarily guarding against is a big / fast reaction the other way and running over covered calls. As a result I have no cc open right now and am mostly not opening. Maybe on a big up day, for a 1-3 DTE position - that sort of thing. For me this strong move into close reinforces just how fast up we can go, and how easily I could have cc get overrun.
The primary question I've got tumbling right now - I expect Monday to be flat to up (uptick rule). If Tuesday becomes another leg down, is it time to turn most of the remaining cash into more leaps? Are we getting low enough to buy speculative leaps instead of share replacements?!?
It looks like IV is increasing on the June '24 2200 strike leaps, enough so that the last big drop still has these trading around $50. Still too high for me to go looking for a high leverage long duration play, but I'm continuing to monitor.
But even more share replacement leaps is looking more and more desirable to me, despite feeling like I'm going to run out of cash.
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