In wider context, seeing “1000 by July” posts… Elon said we’re in a recession and they last 12-18 months, right? It’s been 6 months since November. So, we have 6-12 months more to go by that metric.
ES, Wifey talk about some bleak future, using words like “it will be worse than ever before”, but currently, per them we are in a bear market rally. Rallies supposed to last 2-3 weeks and since May 20 we’re half way in, so I’m thinking by July we’ll be going in opposite direction, not towards 1000.
I’ve closed my 2024 calls and waiting for some top(btw, WifeyAlpha will post the top, this is when everyone buys Zee puts). I don’t trust blindly, but nice to have a pointer.
Planning to re-sell 2024 calls then and possibly do couple other things (sell high cost basis shares of which I have 600 to re-buy lower later and, potentially, close high legs of some of my put spreads rolled last year when Elon was selling shares and let low legs run to pay for some of these spreads using the call money).
I will need this hedge if we’re to go much lower, looking at doomsday scenario like:
View attachment 811771
Still hoping though we stop at Nasdaq 10k.
My thinking in selling 2024 calls (1600 strike gives me enough money for hedging) is that in the worst case(if we only go up from here) my portfolio value will still be larger in 2 years than it was during SP 1200 and I won’t be forced to liquidate everything if we end up at 400-500 level and lose everything.