Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[jeewee3000]

Lol....yeah, I have a much simpler map of what's going on yesterday and today. To me it simply looks like a summer week with little to no real buying or selling.

That's what I'm expecting as well. No real direction today or tomorrow, therefore no 10% increase in SP (from the lows of $730 this morning) in a mere two trading days without news.

If I'm wrong, I have plenty of room to roll. (and then my longer term puts and LEAPS are better off)

 

[M3Rider]

My best guess is we hit 1000 early July. Next stop from here is 710, though. Then, EMA 200 @ 850.

I enjoy following https://twitter.com/WifeyAlpha?s=20&t=g4Tfux4CRortCpAremVCxg
(This is a guy, opposite to what the handle says) for market predictions. Pretty close so far.

Last time I quoted him when it was a CPI day and everyone thought the market would rip, the opposite happened per WifeyAlpha.

This time I see a lot of bullishness in this thread (but 710 trip first). He says the opposite. Since yesterday expected market to rip as part of the bear market rally (and was off by a day) but today right on the clock.

This was ballsy

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We're about to touch the bottom end of my 8/19 BPS $1020/780........oh boy!

 

[dc_h]

I’m on vacation, but I sold 5 800 outs for next week. Actually rolling 5 750 puts. I got 25 each last week and netting 43 today. If we hit 800, I’ll still have my cash, if assigned I’ll have netted about 18 a share after my 750 calls were assigned. Not sure if this is how the wheel is supposed to be played, but I expect a more positive market. Biden kissing up to Saudis has already been paid back with more oil, which cuts inflation and helps growth. Macro is mostly about inflation and the fed, which could mean rising stock. See how it plays out, but I expect to roll to 800 to 850 next week. If we rocket, my premium drops, but my leaps are green.
I accidentally wrote a crush, I sold 5 820 calls next week last week, rolled from 760.

 

[M3Rider]

In wider context, seeing “1000 by July” posts… Elon said we’re in a recession and they last 12-18 months, right? It’s been 6 months since November. So, we have 6-12 months more to go by that metric.

ES, Wifey talk about some bleak future, using words like “it will be worse than ever before”, but currently, per them we are in a bear market rally. Rallies supposed to last 2-3 weeks and since May 20 we’re half way in, so I’m thinking by July we’ll be going in opposite direction, not towards 1000.

I’ve closed my 2024 calls and waiting for some top(btw, WifeyAlpha will post the top, this is when everyone buys Zee puts). I don’t trust blindly, but nice to have a pointer.

Planning to re-sell 2024 calls then and possibly do couple other things (sell high cost basis shares of which I have 600 to re-buy lower later and, potentially, close high legs of some of my put spreads rolled last year when Elon was selling shares and let low legs run to pay for some of these spreads using the call money).

I will need this hedge if we’re to go much lower, looking at doomsday scenario like:

Still hoping though we stop at Nasdaq 10k.

My thinking in selling 2024 calls (1600 strike gives me enough money for hedging) is that in the worst case(if we only go up from here) my portfolio value will still be larger in 2 years than it was during SP 1200 and I won’t be forced to liquidate everything if we end up at 400-500 level and lose everything.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

In wider context, seeing “1000 by July” posts… Elon said we’re in a recession and they last 12-18 months, right? It’s been 6 months since November. So, we have 6-12 months more to go by that metric.

ES, Wifey talk about some bleak future, using words like “it will be worse than ever before”, but currently, per them we are in a bear market rally. Rallies supposed to last 2-3 weeks and since May 20 we’re half way in, so I’m thinking by July we’ll be going in opposite direction, not towards 1000.

I’ve closed my 2024 calls and waiting for some top(btw, WifeyAlpha will post the top, this is when everyone buys Zee puts). I don’t trust blindly, but nice to have a pointer.

Planning to re-sell 2024 calls then and possibly do couple other things (sell high cost basis shares of which I have 600 to re-buy lower later and, potentially, close high legs of some of my put spreads rolled last year when Elon was selling shares and let low legs run to pay for some of these spreads using the call money).

I will need this hedge if we’re to go much lower, looking at doomsday scenario like:
View attachment 811771

Still hoping though we stop at Nasdaq 10k.

My thinking in selling 2024 calls (1600 strike gives me enough money for hedging) is that in the worst case(if we only go up from here) my portfolio value will still be larger in 2 years than it was during SP 1200 and I won’t be forced to liquidate everything if we end up at 400-500 level and lose everything.

So you're taking a Twitter and Reddit poll to estimate SP movements over time? All I'm seeing here is "this random guy said this" and "that random guy said that".

Barely belongs in the main thread, and certainly not in the options/wheel thread. (not that I'm some on-topic angel or anything)

 

[M3Rider]

In other predictions, Corey from The Stock Channel expects bears to jump in @SPY 420 and more at 430. This correlates with

So, 2 more weeks of growth, then back to bear market. Let’s see how this works out.
So far, these bears were more right than permabulls in the other thread.

 

[M3Rider]

So you're taking a Twitter and Reddit poll to estimate SP movements over time? All I'm seeing here is "this random guy said this" and "that random guy said that".

Barely belongs in the main thread, and certainly not in the options/wheel thread. (not that I'm some on-topic angel or anything )

This is not a random guy, ES is the guy I’ve been following since like Jan and pretty much everything he says comes true, often even on a short timeframe. I have a lot more trust in him than in guys on the main thread when it comes to bear markets. They’ve been wrong, he’s been right, it’s as simple as that.

And this is not a main thread, this is options thread and I assume a lot of people got burned last year when Elon was selling and rolled their puts/spreads. These puts might be in trouble if worst is to come, so I think it’s prudent to bring up the risk and how to hedge it.

I have no 100% trust in anybody, everyone is responsible for their own decisions, but ES and Wifey(who I’ve been following not long, since the CPI tweet) have been posting some pretty good predictions.

Trust at your own risk

 

[vikings123]

This is not a random guy, ES is the guy I’ve been following since like Jan and pretty much everything he says comes true, often even on a short timeframe. I have a lot more trust in him than in guys on the main thread when it comes to bear markets. They’ve been wrong, he’s been right, it’s as simple as that.

And this is not a main thread, this is options thread and I assume a lot of people got burned last year when Elon was selling and rolled their puts/spreads. These puts might be in trouble if worst is to come, so I think it’s prudent to bring up the risk and how to hedge it.

I have no 100% trust in anybody, everyone is responsible for their own decisions, but ES and Wifey(who I’ve been following not long, since the CPI tweet) have been posting some pretty good predictions.

Trust at your own risk

I think you got lucky with your timing of following ES . AFAIK this guy has been screaming top for 18 months now lol. I still think it's good to follow people like them because they often provide a different perspective. Nobody can time these markets. Whatever you do don't follow squawk

 

[samppa]

follow enough twitter predictions, and somebody will get it right.

 

[juanmedina]

follow enough twitter predictions, and somebody will get it right.

Yesterday all the TA youtubers were saying that we were going down based on yesterdays price action.... look what just happened today. Nobody knows anything it is a crapshoot

 

[OrthoSurg]

Sold some 6/3 $800cc's @1.02 at open.

Might close today if >50% profit. Quite convinced these won't end up ITM.

EDIT: you can all thank me for the SP rise. I doubled down and sold some more 800 cc's at $1.7 and have laddered cc-sell orders @$3 $6 and $8.

Thanks for your sacrifice

 

[OrthoSurg]

Yesterday all the TA youtubers were saying that we were going down based on yesterdays price action.... look what just happened today. Nobody knows anything it is a crapshoot

From what I saw yesterday, I was expecting a deep red day. Now, that we have a deep green day, I officially know that I am really bad at SP move predictions, like everybody on YouTube. I should start my YT channel.

 

[M3Rider]

I think you got lucky with your timing of following ES . AFAIK this guy has been screaming top for 18 months now lol. I still think it's good to follow people like them because they often provide a different perspective. Nobody can time these markets. Whatever you do don't follow squawk

Yep, the reason I feel at ease following them is they have no beef with Tesla or Elon Musk, so I feel they are not the TSLAQ crazies who always want TSLA to crash, if needed along with the market.

ES I believe owns a Tesla and I have a feeling will load up on TSLA at the bottom to the gills. ES stated TSLA is his only long and it will be a growth leader once the bear market is over. WifeyAlpha also said he doesn’t short TSLA.

 

[juanmedina]

From what I saw yesterday, I was expecting a deep red day. Now, that we have a deep green day, I officially know that I am really bad at SP move predictions, like everybody on YouTube. I should start my YT channel.

The Daily Trader said yesterday that he took profit and went short IIRC lol. I really need stop following these types of channels. At least the Stocks Channel gives quick price targets without a bunch of BS.

Yep, the reason I feel at ease following them is they have no beef with Tesla or Elon Musk, so I feel they are not the TSLAQ crazies who always want TSLA to crash, if needed along with the market.

ES I believe owns a Tesla and I have a feeling will load up on TSLA at the bottom to the gills. ES stated TSLA is his only long and it will be a growth leader once the bear market is over. WifeyAlpha also said he doesn’t short TSLA.

yeah but he didn't load up at $620 that couldn't have been a profitable trade.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

From what I saw yesterday, I was expecting a deep red day. Now, that we have a deep green day, I officially know that I am really bad at SP move predictions, like everybody on YouTube. I should start my YT channel.

Lots of counter-intuitive moves with TSLA because of the options market. That's why I've been thinking the 2Q numbers are the spot for a massive spike to ATH.

A few weeks ago everyone thought 2Q was trashed and started selling CCs at super-low strikes. "No chance we recover til post-3Q". Now the MMs and hedgies can run all those people over just like when they ran over all the BPS writers in Jan/Feb.

Options market profits and cheap shares galore for the house. Must be nice.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Sold some 6/3 $800cc's @1.02 at open.

Might close today if >50% profit. Quite convinced these won't end up ITM.

EDIT: you can all thank me for the SP rise. I doubled down and sold some more 800 cc's at $1.7 and have laddered cc-sell orders @$3 $6 and $8.

……Max pain is whatever, but the big call spike was at 750 yesterday and another smaller at 800. Today that's shifted to 800/750/825/850 in order of spike magnitude……Action this morning looks to me like we're in for a rollercoaster 2 days that end up at 799 rather than 749. You are in my thoughts and prayers.

Yesterday all the TA youtubers were saying that we were going down based on yesterdays price action.... look what just happened today. Nobody knows anything it is a crapshoot

I’m now convinced that this thing is more rigged than ever and they are just waiting for us to sell CCs. They bought up the c800s on the cheap at 9:31 and started buying stock to drive the SP, which caused FOMO buying by retail. They will pick the time to get out and it will be the top. Damn, they got me again: sold CCs this AM for too little and too low. I’ll be rolling tomorrow. Edit: Small consolidation, but at least my -p750s, Sep/Jan -p1000s, and +c500s are doing better.

 

[phantasms]

FYI 850s for tomorrow are going for over a buck. "safe" bet.

 

[Yoona]

noon-to-noon daytrading works

 

[adiggs]

Lots of counter-intuitive moves with TSLA because of the options market. That's why I've been thinking the 2Q numbers are the spot for a massive spike to ATH.

A few weeks ago everyone thought 2Q was trashed and started selling CCs at super-low strikes. "No chance we recover til post-3Q". Now the MMs and hedgies can run all those people over just like when they ran over all the BPS writers in Jan/Feb.

Options market profits and cheap shares galore for the house. Must be nice.

Whatever I think -might- happen around the production report, I plan to be out of both puts and calls for it. Then again I'm looking for dividend like results, and the wildcard of a really big reaction in either direction -- I plan to watch from the sidelines.