Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[vikings123]

I hate buying calls on a down Friday like this for the "inevitable rebound next week". By the time 9:45 Monday comes around, theta has decayed even more than any positive move from SP appreciation.

It's a fool's errand, but I may volunteer if we tap 700!

In general I think this is a winning strategy especially on a Friday dip. But we did not trigger the uptick rule today so hedgies leaving the door open for another attack on Monday.

How often do you see MMs/Hedgies(we should probably call them Medgies because they are colluding lol) not going for whole number stop losses? In this case 700 is being protected because they cannot control how low this drops after the stops are triggered.

 

[JustMe]

I hate buying calls on a down Friday like this for the "inevitable rebound next week". By the time 9:45 Monday comes around, theta has decayed even more than any positive move from SP appreciation.

It's a fool's errand, but I may volunteer if we tap 700!

Yep, sometimes it’s better to just buy shares. I picked up a couple near today’s lows.

Todays sell off was actually fortunate for me as I was holding $785/$860 bcs opened yesterday it was pretty profitable but very lucky.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

In general I think this is a winning strategy especially on a Friday dip. But we did not trigger the uptick rule today so hedgies leaving the door open for another attack on Monday.

How often do you see MMs/Hedgies(we should probably call them Medgies because they are colluding lol) not going for whole number stop losses? In this case 700 is being protected because they cannot control how low this drops after the stops are triggered.

I don't think there's any big effort to keep TSLA at or below $700 today. It's already been there very recently. I think it's just MM's pushing for a definitely <$750 close early, and then negative momentum brought us here. Maybe there's hedgies trying to crack $700 for whatever reason today, but I don't see anything carrying over to Monday.

Guess I'll go peruse the chain and look for bargains.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Funny, the 6/10 BPS I opened at $1.45 are now at $1.20 with the SP a good $10-15 lower. Nice. Guess we had quite an IV burst there.

 

[FlamingPIG]

I'm trying out swing trade during these 5%+ up down daily swing. Just bought 100 shares @706.
a. If next week SP gain 5%+, I sell. Repeat.
b. If SP drops more: I'll wait until it reverse.
c. If SP drops in the 500: will convert them to LEAPS. Then sell long dated CC against it when SP around 20%+ from 706


Reason: swing trade risk/reward looks better than BPS/puts during the low SP

Using around $70k as cost base:

706 are in the lower SP range bound of 620-1250. Probability of going +5% in the short term is high.
+5% of 100x706= $3,500
+10% = $7,000

data point that safe weekly puts are 15% OTM
15% OTM 1X Put gets around = $350
15% OTM 7X BPS (100 spread) gets around = $2,000

Pro of swing trade = no cap to gain amount
con = may stuck with shares if SP doesnt reverse

edit: more numbers and clarification

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Fine.......shares at $701.60 rather than calls. Being an adult is so lame.

You're welcome for the 780 pop on Monday.

 

[corduroy]

I ended up not opening any trades today, nothing felt right. It's OK to sit out a week. I'm very feeling bearish about next week. I think it's very likely we visit the low 600s. Even without Elon's email we probably would have seen a 5-7% drop today as all of growth/tech is getting hammered. The bear market rally may be over and we start back down. I sure hope I am wrong though

Happy Friday!

 

[bkp_duke]

I ended up not opening any trades today, nothing felt right. It's OK to sit out a week. I'm very feeling bearish about next week. I think it's very likely we visit the low 600s. Even without Elon's email we probably would have seen a 5-7% drop today as all of growth/tech is getting hammered. The bear market rally may be over and we start back down. I sure hope I am wrong though

Happy Friday!

I've had a lot of that the past 3 months. Literally, been chicken to get in the game except for a few basic puts and calls.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I ended up not opening any trades today, nothing felt right. It's OK to sit out a week. I'm very feeling bearish about next week. I think it's very likely we visit the low 600s. Even without Elon's email we probably would have seen a 5-7% drop today as all of growth/tech is getting hammered. The bear market rally may be over and we start back down. I sure hope I am wrong though

Happy Friday!

I've had a lot of that the past 3 months. Literally, been chicken to get in the game except for a few basic puts and calls.

Same here, but have managed to work through the stress and realize that it’s only money and my modest needs are already taken care of through 2023. So, today I expected to roll my -c750s for a loss to next week. Instead, rolled -p750s to next week’s -p735s for $4cr and closed the CCs (waaaaay too early) for a nice profit, though left lots on the table. Once again, used up most of my free cash buying 25 shares and a few yolo 6/10 c740s, so it’s pretty much guaranteed that the SP will continue dropping next week. Sorry folks.

 

[ZsoZso]

Crystal ball prediction for tomorrow.
You don’t get this from Cory.
View attachment 811984

That did not age too well...

 

[jeewee3000]

This is hardly testing 700, though. We bounced more than 2% above 700. SP this evening = between 700-800. Would be surprised if otherwise.

This held up but I owe an apology to @BornToFly : you were not paranoid and we did test 700 today, a lot. But hey, (y)our bps stayed otm.

 

[scubastevo80]

That did not age too well...

What's with all the sudden posts from this Wifey person? Do they have legit credentials or just the latest person to make one correct prediction and capitalize on social media followers?

 

[intelligator]

What I think this says about the days ahead ... it ain't gonna be e-z. Gamma flipped, the put buying resumed, broad field with a couple call walls setting up. I have CSP at 610 and a 690CC for next week. Will sit out unless the field narrows.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Started the day watching 6/3 CC$755 carefully after Thursday’s SP close of $775 with a cost to close/roll of $26.56. Well, the market overreaction to the “hiring freeze” kerfuffle (a similar announcement hammered COIN) meant I didn’t have to look at it until 3pm, and then it was easy to let it expire prior to the $704 close. Next week’s Icarus watch: 6/10 $740 and $765, and whatever replaces the $755, if anything. Perhaps the market will notice and digest that the “freeze” is non-production staff and have a big Monday.

 

[Xepa777]

What's with all the sudden posts from this Wifey person? Do they have legit credentials or just the latest person to make one correct prediction and capitalize on social media followers?

Reincarnation of that Sarajah the prophet guy. Just another forecaster who has been on a hot streak. It’s so incessant I’d almost believe that @M3Rider was a paid shill.

Generally it’s amusing to see new people cycle in an out of this thread in a cycle of discovery/greed on different strategies, getting burned, then not posting anymore. (Shrugs). Anytime someone says they’re targeting a certain % in a regular interval I track to see how long they end up being a regular poster here lol.

It’s astoundingly hard to consistently predict short term future well with technicals, and often people who can are math phds working at the most prestigious or innovative financial institutions. The alpha comes from long term fundamental predictions of inevitable trends which we all know to be true at TMC.

With that said, I like to keep it simple: sell puts when stock has some brutal brutal weeks, sell calls when people talk about buying max strike price leaps. Lol. And in between is a fun game to manage with a % if your shares/cash/margin. Selling puts makes more money and has limited loss vs selling calls which can have infinite opportunity cost loss potential. And if you’re solid at rolling while burning time value, you’ll end up doing fine in the long term.

 

[Max Plaid]

I ended up not opening any trades today, nothing felt right. It's OK to sit out a week. I'm very feeling bearish about next week. I think it's very likely we visit the low 600s. Even without Elon's email we probably would have seen a 5-7% drop today as all of growth/tech is getting hammered. The bear market rally may be over and we start back down. I sure hope I am wrong though

Happy Friday!

I'm bearish, but couldn't resist the $27 premium on 10x -p700's for next week:
- might not go down there
- if the SP does drop, we're already low, won't go that much lower
- weekly put rolls are very generous as of late
- the SP will come back up to $700 before not to long, probably
- I'm OK to buy shares at net $673, but my price-target to load-up is $500, so don't really want this to happen, but it would neither be a disaster

What's with all the sudden posts from this Wifey person? Do they have legit credentials or just the latest person to make one correct prediction and capitalize on social media followers?

On recommendation I started to follow this account and it's gobbledegook, all the Tweets are written oddly and I don't have the time or inclination to decode them

Seems this person made some predictions that came to pass, but of course, there are 1000's of Twitter commentators predicting every possible permutation at any given time, most of them will be right at some point (except GLJ and toilet-boy, of course)

This Wifey person called the bear-rally (I did too, but that's beside the point) and said it was going to run up like crazy, hey-presto, it got killed yesterday and now he/she is saying the markets are fcuked - so not all that prophetic, IMO

Where he/she is correct is that is that cash is the safest asset right now - which I agree with, of course there's folks that will cleat about inflation, but there are really, really, really low risk trades you can make with cash that easily out-pace inflation

 

[Bunky]

This price action is so demoralizing. At 790 just on Thursday I was on the way to getting out of some ITM bps and being free and clear. Now back at 700 I have to keep an eye out for margin calls and sign an acknowledgment from Fidelity that I am responsible for the performance of my account after it declined

 

[dl003]

not to toot my own horn but I myself have been pretty accurate in predicting day to day price action, thanks to months of gluing to the ticker and IVs. I looked at Wifey and that guy seems to be squarely in the TSLAQ camp. Can I really trust his judgment? Only time will tell. That being said, I have my reasons to believe we will go higher next week. Im not so sure we can test 800. My reasons are:

I wanted 710 for a 50% retracement. I got that.
Call IVs held steady throughout Friday, suggesting market were anticipating a rebound, even if only short term.
SPY and QQQ’s charts are showing a classic 5-wave pattern with one elusive last leg higher.
TSLA has a tendency to set a bear trap on stupid overreaction to irrelevant pieces of information.

That being said, Im still sticking to my call for caution last week. A rebound can be just that - an opportunity for the last bottom feeders to get out before a deeper pullback. I will try to send a warning as soon as call IVs start crushing again. Problem is I fear we might not have hours like we did before the real rug pull happens. Stay nimble folks.

 

[Yoona]

weekend puzzler for the bored and challenged...

guys, i need help pls

i have a bcs daytrade that ran away from me (st*pid STO BCS on a dip instead of peak)

3/17 BCS x1 -c1100/+c1200 sold $10, now $14 = paper loss $4

i am confident this will expire worthless (and theta is still positive), but i don't like the idea of 10k margin tied up the next 9 months

the only thing i can think of is flip-split:

• BTC 3/17/2023 BCS x1 -c1100/+c1200, margin 10k, debit $1400
• STO 6/10/2022 IC x2 +p530/-p630/-c850/+c950, margin 20k, credit $1400
• net $0

any not-advice? i hesitate using 20k margin to fix a 10k margin... if market tanks next week then i am in 2x the trouble (instead of just patiently waiting for an expiry)

help meeeeee and TIA!

(edit: i need the position gone by next week so i can start using the 10k margin again soon)

 

[dl003]

weekend puzzler for the bored and challenged...

guys, i need help pls

i have a bcs daytrade that ran away from me (st*pid STO BCS on a dip instead of peak)

3/17 BCS x1 -c1100/+c1200 sold $10, now $14 = paper loss $4

i am confident this will expire worthless (and theta is still positive), but i don't like the idea of 10k margin tied up the next 9 months

the only thing i can think of is flip-split:

• BTC 3/17/2023 BCS x1 -c1100/+c1200, margin 10k, debit $1400
• STO 6/10/2022 IC x2 +p530/-p630/-c850/+c950, margin 20k, credit $1400
• net $0

any not-advice? i hesitate using 20k margin to fix a 10k margin... if market tanks next week then i am in 2x the trouble (instead of just patiently waiting for an expiry)

help meeeeee and TIA!

I say do something like this:
You will end up tying up only 5k instead of 10k while raising your short call leg to 1200. Thats the defensive move.