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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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I'm fading my previous impulse wave thesis. The timing was too early with CPI and FOMC on tap. My primary prediction is now more immediate. We are stuck in a falling wedge that should resolve by this Friday in the 680s area. I'm biased toward a move up to form the right shoulder of an inhns pattern. If 680 doesn't hold, expect a test of 625 to potentially create a double bottom pattern. A clean break of 735 will keep the impulse wave theory alive but I don't see it happening unless some truly unexpected macro news happens soon.
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next week is VIX, FOMC, OPEX; discussion below starts at 9:36


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With that many puts, are we expecting a squeeze? Or possibly the big players just rolling this down the road to another exp date?
 
Same SP action as last Monday, no? Pushdown at the open, recovery, more powerful pushdown, recovery.

This better not be the plan for the whole summer or TMC is gonna sell enough BPS to bankrupt these mothagrabbers!
Three pushdowns this week, how inventive.

Not a single trade this morning as I loaded up on 6/10 BPS on Friday. Will likely look to close out all 6/10 Wed/Thurs is we move up toward the $800 call wall, then open 6/17 far OTM for $2+ premiums if we plummet at any time around the Friday chaos.

A run up to $785 and back down to $710 would be phenomenal obviously. I think it's completely possible. At some point I need to find the stones to work the call side of this.
 
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Are these option high of the day prices BS? I had open orders to sell that strike for $2.40 before the open and the orders were not filled. I was able to sell a few for $2.10.
Not sure about those, but I sold some c745s for $21.25 at the open. Wish I had sold more, but I’m trying a new method to reduce risk and only selling from one account each day, and only on an up day.
 
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With that many puts, are we expecting a squeeze? Or possibly the big players just rolling this down the road to another exp date?
IIRC, i believe they said that most are usually rolled

A run up to $785 and back down to $710 would be phenomenal obviously. I think it's completely possible. At some point I need to find the stones to work the call side of this.
my 6/10 860 CC up 35% in 3 hrs, i will leave it alone

my 6/10 -p700 up only 15%, i may also leave it alone (ok to buy shares)
 
I decided to open some buy-writes today. With shares around 720 I've purchased shares and sold 700 strike calls. By selling ITM calls like this I'm selling about $16 in time value. As long as the shares finish the week >$700 then I'll be able to close for that time value of $16. If share price goes below 700 then I've got $37 calls that are heading to 0.

I considered something closer to the money, even slightly OTM. I decided on this position to increase the odds of closing the whole position by end of week, and because the high credit generates all of my target income (and then some) using this position alone.

My risk in this position is the shares drop well below 700. I'm comfortable with this risk as I don't see a LOT of room to go down, and that I can roll with it if needed. The real problem is that I'd like to be ready to use the cash I bought these shares with, to buy leaps at a lower share price.


My solution - I'm entering this as a buy-write. I'll even manage it that way. However I also might just keep the shares and use them to sell aggressive calls, always ready to just take assignment. The benefit of this 'solution' is that I can stop waiting for a bottom that I think is still in front of us and buy those shares / leaps that I've been wanting to add on, today. I'll just have to see if this longer term ownership evolves, or if this is a 1 week / short time position.

In the most likely outcome (expire ITM) then I'll earn that $16 (probably close around $4 time value for a net of $12). That's enough that I don't need to open any other positions for this week and still reach the weekly income target.

Ideal I think will be close to 700 towards the end of the week - that'll provide an easy excuse to keep the aggressive strike for another week.
 
Adding on - though I do have cc open now, these are part of buy-writes and using cash that would be backing csp. I'm treating these as if they are csp.

I have other shares and leaps that I would like to be selling cc against, but they have purchase prices in the 850ish and 930ish share price range. While shares are down here in the low 700s there just aren't cc strike prices that I like selling. With these other cc positions I'm waiting. Weekly income is all on the csp / buy-write / bps positions right now. I probably enter these additional cc though on a pop up close to 800...


I say that to say this (not-advice). Though I continue more bearish than not, I also think we're on the low end of the trading range. Maybe we can get down to 600 (down 1/7th from here), but up 50% from here also looks very reasonable. Despite being bearish, the primary risk that I'm managing for is a big move -up- and seeing cc get overrun.

This is where the sharp turnaround can get me into trouble, and is mostly what I'm thinking about as I choose positions. And is why I'm out of the market on my longer term call / share positions. I don't want these to be assigned on anything lower than a 900 strike call, and 900s aren't worth enough right now for the risk that even that would be overrun :)
 
This dude thinks TSLA is showing potentially bullish signs and he thinks we will go back up to $900 In the next couple of weeks.

Big, if true 🤔


So, of the neck line of the reverse head shoulders holds at 700, really good news and we go back up to 900.
If the $700 doesn’t hold and the neck line doesn’t hold, we go back in the 500s and 400s but he thinks it is very unlikely as everyone who had to sell like has sold already.

I like that theory.
 
I wish I had a crystal ball.... NASDAQ down 1.36% in premarket. If it has a red day, TSLA should go down 4X. If that happens, I should be able to sell a bunch of 800 strike CC for Jun 2024 at the open to generate cash. I just need it to drop enough that I can place a BUY Stop Loss order at the same price I sold them for, so when the SP recovers at some point, I buy them back for what I sold them for. In other words, I need them to go down by the Bid-Ask spread difference. I don't really want to sell shares for 800 in 2024. So what would screw me is the SP going up from the red open. I think that is unlikely without a MMD.... Aargh. 🤔
 
I wish I had a crystal ball....
You and every trader alive.

The point of this thread is letting theta decay work in our favor, not predicting market direction. Of course to get some decent/juicy theta decay we like to get closer to the money than we should sometimes, resulting in our need/want for a crystal ball.

Since I got burnt on BPS I really try to take non-directional positions, so I always gain in both outcomes. (example cc's and csp's for the same expiration date) This only goes wrong when the direction the market takes is too fierce, which unfortunately happens a lot lately. But still, I have a lot more peace of mind than when I was selling BPS every week.

GLTA
 
Since I got burnt on BPS I really try to take non-directional positions, so I always gain in both outcomes. (example cc's and csp's for the same expiration date) This only goes wrong when the direction the market takes is too fierce, which unfortunately happens a lot lately. But still, I have a lot more peace of mind than when I was selling BPS every week.

GLTA
i also stopped selling spreads until bull market is back, what are your cc/csp strikes this week?
 
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CSP was sold yesterday around open and is quite agressive: $700p. Will only roll if we hit $650 I think.

CC's are not open yet, I am waiting for an SP spike before opening this leg of the strangle.

EDIT: I had my eye on $900 cc's yesterday that were $0.66. I had an order in for $1.0 each since I expected we'd gain throughout the day instead of drop, and $900 seemed very very safe.

When that didn't come to pass I eyed the $850cc's but these have also dropped since I entertained the thought. My inaction caused me to have no cc's open yet.

Even though I said I prefer non-directional trades I also consider I don't want my cc's to get steamrolled. In other words: I'm always more careful opening cc's than when I'm opening csp's.
 
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CSP was sold yesterday around open and is quite agressive: $700p. Will only roll if we hit $650 I think.
You're safe. I sold 30X 800 strike CC for Jun 2024 for $225 to generate cash for margin against a further drop. Since my plan was to buy them back at the same price after a further SP drop and eventually rebound, I have just guaranteed for everyone that we never drop below 680. You're welcome.
 
You're safe. I sold 30X 800 strike CC for Jun 2024 for $225 to generate cash for margin against a further drop. Since my plan was to buy them back at the same price after a further SP drop and eventually rebound, I have just guaranteed for everyone that we never drop below 680. You're welcome.
I'm holding about 10 of those $800 LEAPS lol. I expect they'll be very good to me by year end.