Thank you for your service. Here’s to hoping that you are forced to roll out and up again. I’m waiting until after FOMC meeting to sell anything. It feels weird to be out, but all my cash is tied up in Jan23 -p1000s and I’m not very comfortable selling CCs below 700 SP. Edit: bought another handful of shares this AM during the drop, a bit too early. Really low on free cash.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
So, SPY officially -20% since January. Officially a bear market. This is my first bear market. Does it mean we will have lower highs and lower lows for the next 2 years or we might get out of this bear market any time at any point as soon as CPI numbers are reassuring?
Closed out 700cc sold on Friday for $42 this afternoon for $8. These are part of a buy-write position with shares at 722. Since I'm looking for $2-4 each week from the positions, these results are also generating the income that my regular cc's are not generating, as I continue just sitting out with the regular cc positions.
My larger read on things (not-advice, and not-TA)... we have production report coming in a few weeks, and I expect that to start providing support for the share price. I am a bit surprised at just how big the drop has been today. I expect macro to take over for a week - maybe 2 - after production before the earnings statement. Then back to a macro driven share price through August and into September.
I've thought of adding even more leaps - next batch will be a shares to leaps conversion - but have decided to hold off in case we get a significantly lower share price from here. At least 600 and maybe 550. I don't -really- want more shares / leaps, but if the share price goes low enough then I'll just have to.
I'm only using fully owned positions, though a noticeable chunk of them are June '24 500 strike calls (fully owned, but on a timer). That keeps the stress down a lot.
I semi-expect Q2 results to be reported by enough media to be a miss, and that the next big market realization of just how well off Tesla is doing to be the Q3 production report. That leaves us, in my mind, with about 3 months of wandering in the wilderness, and probably more down than up. I really want to be wrong about this
Another notion that I think about regularly - for this whole thing to work well for me, I need to be able to generate an adequate income with shares at 500 or 1500 or 4285. Looks like I'm getting to explore income generation at the low, low end of the trading range.
My larger read on things (not-advice, and not-TA)... we have production report coming in a few weeks, and I expect that to start providing support for the share price. I am a bit surprised at just how big the drop has been today. I expect macro to take over for a week - maybe 2 - after production before the earnings statement. Then back to a macro driven share price through August and into September.
I've thought of adding even more leaps - next batch will be a shares to leaps conversion - but have decided to hold off in case we get a significantly lower share price from here. At least 600 and maybe 550. I don't -really- want more shares / leaps, but if the share price goes low enough then I'll just have to.
I'm only using fully owned positions, though a noticeable chunk of them are June '24 500 strike calls (fully owned, but on a timer). That keeps the stress down a lot.
I semi-expect Q2 results to be reported by enough media to be a miss, and that the next big market realization of just how well off Tesla is doing to be the Q3 production report. That leaves us, in my mind, with about 3 months of wandering in the wilderness, and probably more down than up. I really want to be wrong about this
Another notion that I think about regularly - for this whole thing to work well for me, I need to be able to generate an adequate income with shares at 500 or 1500 or 4285. Looks like I'm getting to explore income generation at the low, low end of the trading range.
With shares at $647, did it really generate income? Or are you talking cash flow?
The sold call offsets the drop in share price, but it's still 75-34=$41 in the red (looking only at this trade).
Of course, on the rebound it'll be great (depending what/ if you have CCs then)
I find this interesting that many retail investors are tired of buying the dip, buying options or trading shares for options. I had a good amount of Jun 24 500 but I closed them all last week for a small profit I just don't feel confident at all about the stock right now. I also plan on doing a share to options conversion but I going to wait as well for lower prices.
I wonder how the the market reversal will playout. For the reversal some dude is targeting Nasdaq at 10k with a decent bounce and maybe drop back after to 7-8k with Tesla at "200 day? 400 plus and rising.." . Another dude thinks that the market will bottom out this week or the next and bounce to all times highs and then the real crash will come.
I'm tired of buying the dip. I have very little money left, i'm too scared to sell puts. I've always been punished when selling calls when we are down this much. I'm just done, so I sold long dated 1 year leaps June 23 1300's and i'm just going to ride this out.
I have the same capitulation feeling. That must be a great contrarian indicator. I am 1 week away to sell super agressive CCs to make the SP reverse like last time right after the start of the war.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Well, June 2024 $650 calls are going for $243!
Wow, now that's really tempting.
And Nasdaq Futures are green 0.75%
May tomorrow be another green day so my pay check finally arrives to offer some margin support to my Really DITM puts. I am about to be the owner of many many many new shares of TSLA by next months if the SP doesn’t reverse dramatically.
I increased my workload of 25% to keep my portfolio alive.
Yes I was trying to look for contrarian indicators like the fear gauge rising, technical supports on the indexes, what sentiment was like around the forums and reddit etc. I think the straw that broke the camels back for me was that the CPI was just too high, the S & P and Nasdaq broke support to a new 52 week low, and I'm scared to death of Q2 for TSLA.
At the end of the day, I don't know what price TSLA will be in 1 years time but I would be happy for it to double from here. If i lose the shares I lose the shares. I can always try to get back in as I'm still super bullish on TSLA which is why the strike price is still quite high.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Well, June 2024 $650 calls are going for $243!
One thought - with the up-coming 3:1 stock split, might be best to pick positions easily divisible by 3.
Every video I watched in the last month was about how we were going to have a reversal soon. However it must have been in the multiverse where the CPI reading was 2.3%
Ahh ok, we must be following different people. Or maybe I'm just clicking on the bearish videos. I've seen some analysts on CNBC call for 3500 3200 (S&P). Chicken genius on twitter is calling for a crash. I guess everyone just has differing opinions.
If I was truly bearish I would sell and try to time a lower share price, but I'm not confident that TSLA can drop much more from this point onwards. Not confident enough to at least attempt a timing of it. It's easier just to bet for a double in a year lol.
There are self-proclaimed gurus all over YouTube and Twitter predicting every scenario under the sun. I have followed a handful for a few weeks and it's basically a scattergun approach, one will be right on Monday, the other on Tuesday, it's all luck IMO and I stopped paying attention, just spreads fear
I do watch The Stock Channel daily video as Cory doesn't make any predictions, he just talks about the "price action", which I find informative, but you can neither make any predictions from that IMO, "support" and "resistance" levels seem to be rather subjective too
Even being bearish can be counter-intuitive as it leads to over-sold markets, then one hint of upside and all the shorts panic-cover and you get a BMRR, which can go on for hours, days or weeks, even to ATH, before plunging back down again
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