Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[adiggs]

Or more like 650 for $40 looking for another reversal and maxing out the income in that direction (further lowering break even). Got to do some math to see which way is better for me.

I decided on a mix.

Opened 650s in one account looking more for gains to the downside and to keep the overall credit growing ($34 credit).

Mostly went with 680s (shares around 666) for an $18 credit.

These are for expiration this Friday.


If we go down from here tomorrow then the 650s will be earning faster. If we go up from here then the overall result will be better with the 680s.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm thinking of rolling my DITM BPS yet again from 8/19 out to November. I'm actually confident these $850/1050 spreads would at least be roll-able for credit by 8/19, but I don't wanna risk early assignment.

I can widen slightly and roll for credit to Nov, but am thinking maybe I should think more like March to be safe.

Question is....what kind of odds can I put on early assignment with puts that are this far ITM, but months from expiration?

At 2 months out, the $1000p seems to have about $9 of value left on it. Is there a general rule I can apply here to guestimate remaining time value? Something like....

x% in the money with y DTE

....is getting dangerous?

 

[dl003]

I'm thinking of rolling my DITM BPS yet again from 8/19 out to November. I'm actually confident these $850/1050 spreads would at least be roll-able for credit by 8/19, but I don't wanna risk early assignment.

I can widen slightly and roll for credit to Nov, but am thinking maybe I should think more like March to be safe.

Question is....what kind of odds can I put on early assignment with puts that are this far ITM, but months from expiration?

At 2 months out, the $1000p seems to have about $9 of value left on it. Is there a general rule I can apply here to guestimate remaining time value? Something like....

x% in the money with y DTE

....is getting dangerous?

You take the premium left on the ITM call/put option, for example: July 15 800P trading at $160 (hypothetical)
Then you add that to the current stock price: 660 + 160 = 820 (subtract if an ITM call option)
Subtract the strike price from that sum: 820 - 800 = 20 (do a reverse if an ITM call option)
20 per share or $2k total is the time value left on the put
160 - 20 = 140 per share or $14k total is the intrinsic value of the put option
When time value shrinks to almost nothing, expect to be assigned at any time.

 

[BornToFly]

I can widen slightly and roll for credit to Nov, but am thinking maybe I should think more like March to be safe.

Spring and summer are usually TSLA low points, so I wouldn't roll Puts to March. All my DITM BPSs are for December.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I'm thinking of rolling my DITM BPS yet again from 8/19 out to November. I'm actually confident these $850/1050 spreads would at least be roll-able for credit by 8/19, but I don't wanna risk early assignment.



I can widen slightly and roll for credit to Nov, but am thinking maybe I should think more like March to be safe.

Question is....what kind of odds can I put on early assignment with puts that are this far ITM, but months from expiration?

At 2 months out, the $1000p seems to have about $9 of value left on it. Is there a general rule I can apply here to guestimate remaining time value? Something like....

x% in the money with y DTE

....is getting dangerous?

Just rolled my -p1050 from July to September. My breakeven Price is 850. I did not want to roll too further out but did not want to risk early assignment . I don’t know if 3 months is safe but I was playing with fire entering the last 20 DTE with almost no more intrinsic value left.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Spring and summer are usually TSLA low points, so I wouldn't roll Puts to March. All my DITM BPSs are for December.

Generally I agree. With the earnings deluge ramping, my thought process is more like which earnings report do I need to move beyond.

Granted, I assumed that would be 1Q22 and that didn't work out so hot!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Just rolled my -p1050 from July to September. My breakeven Price is 850. I did not want to roll too further out but did not want to risk early assignment . I don’t know if 3 months is safe but I was playing with fire entering the last 20 DTE with almost no more intrinsic value left.

And that's my concern/question....I can do the on-the-spot math to see what value is left, but is there a general rule? As in....3 weeks to expiration and 10% OTM is the beginning of a far greater assignment risk.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Yoonas premarket high/low seems to be a good indication of where we will close again

 

[intelligator]

You take the premium left on the ITM call/put option, for example: July 15 800P trading at $160 (hypothetical)
Then you add that to the current stock price: 660 + 160 = 820 (subtract if an ITM call option)
Subtract the strike price from that sum: 820 - 800 = 20 (do a reverse if an ITM call option)
20 per share or $2k total is the time value left on the put
160 - 20 = 140 per share or $14k total is the intrinsic value of the put option
When time value shrinks to almost nothing, expect to be assigned at any time.

Yikes, wasn't looking that far out !!! I have several DITM December 22 -1150p short side paired to 1000, 950, and 750 long. The 1150 are trading at 489, 657+489 = 1146, -4 below as of now ??? Do I have this right?

 

[dl003]

Yikes, wasn't looking that far out !!! I have several DITM December 22 -1150p short side paired to 1000, 950, and 750 long. The 1150 are trading at 489, 657+489 = 1146, -4 below as of now ??? Do I have this right?

At SP 658, I'm seeing Dec 1150p trading at 505. So it's 658 + 505 = 1163.

 

[intelligator]

At SP 658, I'm seeing Dec 1150p trading at 505. So it's 658 + 505 = 1163.

I'd used the Last price, not the Ask, okay. With the price trending down , it's concerning that assignment could happen for such far out DITM puts... I guess these too will need to be watched, managed to safety. Thanks for the insight!

 

[Bunky]

Thinking about how to rebuild one of my accounts that got blown up by BPS. I'm considering cash and LEAPs as collateral for CSP/strategic conservative BPS and leap covered calls. Keen to hear how those who were mostly selling against cash have fared the past few months

 

[OrthoSurg]

And that's my concern/question....I can do the on-the-spot math to see what value is left, but is there a general rule? As in....3 weeks to expiration and 10% OTM is the beginning of a far greater assignment risk.

And that's my concern/question....I can do the on-the-spot math to see what value is left, but is there a general rule? As in....3 weeks to expiration and 10% OTM is the beginning of a far greater assignment risk.

I asked that questions couple months ago and we came to the conclusion there was not any definitive rule or formula.
The less intrinsic value there is left the higher the assignment risk. I don’t know if it is linear however l had suggested we put all our assigned contracts on a Google doc sheet and we will find THE mathematical linear probability one day

When I look at the put I sold and I feel I would like to exercice my contract if I was on the other side of the trade, that’s when I roll.

 

[BornToFly]

I have DITM 910 strike Puts in my mom's account for Jun 24th. There is essentially no time value remaining. I might try to roll them tomorrow. The problem is rolling it out a month at the same strike generates very little credit.

 

[mrmtb]

I asked that questions couple months ago and we came to the conclusion there was not any definitive rule or formula.
The less intrinsic value there is left the higher the assignment risk. I don’t know if it is linear however l had suggested we put all our assigned contracts on a Google doc sheet and we will find THE mathematical linear probability one day

When I look at the put I sold and I feel I would like to exercice my contract if I was on the other side of the trade, that’s when I roll.

Extrinsic/time value

 

[bkp_duke]

I have DITM 910 strike Puts in my mom's account for Jun 24th. There is essentially no time value remaining. I might try to roll them tomorrow. The problem is rolling it out a month at the same strike generates very little credit.

I was assigned 905p last week, 2 DTE. Just a data point.

 

[MrMoo]

I'm tired of buying the dip. I have very little money left, i'm too scared to sell puts. I've always been punished when selling calls when we are down this much. I'm just done, so I sold long dated 1 year leaps June 23 1300's and i'm just going to ride this out.

Just an update on this. I flip flopped (Short term) on this plan as I noticed that the Nasdaq was heading towards a 200 week moving average (10700) which has held up pretty well over the last few decades (2000 and 2008 being exceptions).

So I decided to take the profit on them and BTC around market open (bought them back at 80% value). And i'll resell them if we bounce. If i'm wrong well then sucks to be me, but profit is profit and given the devastation I think we may have a bounce in us. Obviously the biggest risk being the fed meeting / rate rise coming up really soon but we'll just have to see what happens.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Extrinsic/time value

You are right I need to sleep. Thanks for correcting my post

 

[JustMe]

Word to the wise: potential stupid catalyst this week.

Elon is addressing Twitter all hands meeting on Thursday. He *might* announce the purchase deal is settled, reducing overhanging uncertainty about his potential further TSLA sales.

This would be on par with the Hertz announcement that sent TSLA up by over 12%. In other words, it shouldn’t matter much but if bulls are looking for an excuse to jump back in, this may suffice. And we are starting from a much lower base.

Of course it depends on the market reaction to the rate increase tomorrow. If it’s positive, these potential catalysts could reinforce each other.

If we do run, it might be temporary so I am likely to close some positions and cut my losses.

I know, lots of ifs. But I’m trying to avoid being run over by a dump truck running uphill or downhill. Again.

 

[Yoona]

Yoonas premarket high/low seems to be a good indication of where we will close again

View attachment 816561

MMs are playing games:

• today's PM High is the Close (just off by 37 CENTS)
• today's High is the same as yesterday's High (just off by 91 CENTS)
• today's AH Close is the same as last Fri's Open (just off by 15 CENTS)
• yesterday's Close is the same as today's PM Low (just off by 4 CENTS)

manipulation , no?

very tempted to daytrade 660 straddle $50 3 DTE

only off today's Close by 2.67!