Closed off the lows. Probably not capitulation.
I agree. We must ride now.
I believe TSLA will become the biggest market cap in the world. Roller coaster it is!
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Closed off the lows. Probably not capitulation.
I agree. We must ride now.
I believe TSLA will become the biggest market cap in the world. Roller coaster it is!
for BPS: so far, -20% is safe in 2022
covid -20.38% is the only odd one in tsla history
(edit) my safe range this week is 535-777 :
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What's consensus on Jan 23 -1000p ? I don't understand the calendar spread well enough to roll out the BPS, sell the long, buy matching short as exemplified by @UltradoomY . I would have been happy to have the 580 CSP hit Friday but am feeling I should keep the cash around to salvage three December 22 BPS spreads with short legs at 1150, the long at 1000, 950, and 750. Widening as @TheTalkingMule explained makes sense in that I have margin to cover the widening. I too may wait a week to decide; there's still $10-12 intrinsic time value but that can vaporize quick. I didn't want to move anything to 2023 that I prefer to have expired December. The roll of the Dec -1150/+1000 to Jan -1000/+800 is $21 credit. While favorable, I'm concerned that we may still be in a holding pattern that far out.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
The 20.38% would still have been safe though assuming one used a spread of any real width.... (I actually phrased what I said very carefully specifically because I knew about that one week- entirely thanks to you BTW
)assuming there is margin room, isn't it an option to:
(i am just making up numbers)
- roll down 12/22 -p1150/+p1000 x1 to this fri 6/17 -p100/+p640 x1 (debit); buy out the contract asap
- STO 6/24 -p610/+p510 x20 (credit); earn back the debit using large temporary margin
- as long as net total is 0 or very tiny loss then nightmare is over
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Possibly, if I'd asked while the Thursday session was active. In my account, Fidelity doesn't allow me to sell same day expiry spread... some safety call on their part. The roll to this friday would need tweaking to match the credit from the new spread and we'd need to close above 610. Interesting.
On 6/14 Tuesday STO 6/17/2022 $710cc (hiding behind the 700 call wall) on a green day after 2 days of red last fri/monday for $6.55, stock was around $663, about 1% a week , thought I made a mistake again flying so close to the sun after the FOMC meeting and the 710c was as high as $17.75.
Decided I would be ok with getting assigned another lot of shares at $710 to further de-risk if we go to the $500s or $400s and just buy back lower (yes i can hear the talking point that timing the market doesn't work),don't know what's going to happen tomorrow, but $710 is now 11% OTM with 1 DTE, maybe safe?
Thinking out loud for the 4 scenarios on what to do with this
1.) If I'm feeling bearish for next week and tomorrow stock is red, might be a good idea to roll tomorrow to next week to capture as much premium as i can for the 6/24. Might just roll for the same strike instead of strike improvement
2.) If I'm feeling bearish for next week, but tomorrow stock is green , let it get assigned and get some cash back, just buy back the stock lower next week or later
3.) If I'm feeling bullish for next week, but tomorrow stock is red, buy back the 710cc but don't roll, wait for a greener day on monday to open new 6/24 cc
4.) If I'm feeling bullish for next week, but tomorrow stock is green, buy back the 710cc (at whatever price, could be a loss or a gain) but also don't roll yet and wait and see what happens
I still believe that any rally will be a bear market rally instead of a reversal , but when these pumps happen it's hard to not feel fomo (yesterday I almost bought back 100 shares that got ITM after hours last friday and assigned, but i didn't and am glad for it)
I need to think about it some more , but I don't know if i feel bullish or bearish yet, the volatility is making me not just bi polar, more like quad polar, maybe i m getting schizophrenia from this
Still holding my 9/16/2022 $700cc that was rolled from 5/27 $600cc, there's barely any decay of time value on them since I rolled on 5/26, it's been 3 weeks (sold for $111 when the stock was around $708, i think yesterday it was still as high as $107 when the stock was around 700)which is a bit annoying, as i m tying up shares when i could be selling weeklies to take advantage of these volatility to make more cash to either buy shares or derisk.
Also have a 6/17 $2475c expiring that I opened back in March as a bait (would have been happy to sell at $2475, a price that didn't seem impossible at the time, but now looks like might take years to reach again
) so could open up some more shares for CC selling next week.
Decided I would be ok with getting assigned another lot of shares at $710 to further de-risk if we go to the $500s or $400s and just buy back lower (yes i can hear the talking point that timing the market doesn't work),don't know what's going to happen tomorrow, but $710 is now 11% OTM with 1 DTE, maybe safe?Thinking out loud for the 4 scenarios on what to do with this
1.) If I'm feeling bearish for next week and tomorrow stock is red, might be a good idea to roll tomorrow to next week to capture as much premium as i can for the 6/24. Might just roll for the same strike instead of strike improvement
2.) If I'm feeling bearish for next week, but tomorrow stock is green , let it get assigned and get some cash back, just buy back the stock lower next week or later
3.) If I'm feeling bullish for next week, but tomorrow stock is red, buy back the 710cc but don't roll, wait for a greener day on monday to open new 6/24 cc
4.) If I'm feeling bullish for next week, but tomorrow stock is green, buy back the 710cc (at whatever price, could be a loss or a gain) but also don't roll yet and wait and see what happens
I still believe that any rally will be a bear market rally instead of a reversal , but when these pumps happen it's hard to not feel fomo (yesterday I almost bought back 100 shares that got ITM after hours last friday and assigned, but i didn't and am glad for it)
I need to think about it some more , but I don't know if i feel bullish or bearish yet, the volatility is making me not just bi polar, more like quad polar, maybe i m getting schizophrenia from this
Still holding my 9/16/2022 $700cc that was rolled from 5/27 $600cc, there's barely any decay of time value on them since I rolled on 5/26, it's been 3 weeks (sold for $111 when the stock was around $708, i think yesterday it was still as high as $107 when the stock was around 700)which is a bit annoying, as i m tying up shares when i could be selling weeklies to take advantage of these volatility to make more cash to either buy shares or derisk.
Also have a 6/17 $2475c expiring that I opened back in March as a bait (would have been happy to sell at $2475, a price that didn't seem impossible at the time, but now looks like might take years to reach again
) so could open up some more shares for CC selling next week.
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In the last 6 OpEx quarters, TSLA is green on Fri.On 6/14 Tuesday STO 6/17/2022 $710cc (hiding behind the 700 call wall) on a green day after 2 days of red last fri/monday for $6.55, stock was around $663, about 1% a week , thought I made a mistake again flying so close to the sun after the FOMC meeting and the 710c was as high as $17.75.
Thinking out loud for the 4 scenarios on what to do with this
1.) If I'm feeling bearish for next week and tomorrow stock is red, might be a good idea to roll tomorrow to next week to capture as much premium as i can for the 6/24. Might just roll for the same strike instead of strike improvement
2.) If I'm feeling bearish for next week, but tomorrow stock is green , let it get assigned and get some cash back, just buy back the stock lower next week or later
3.) If I'm feeling bullish for next week, but tomorrow stock is red, buy back the 710cc but don't roll, wait for a greener day on monday to open new 6/24 cc
4.) If I'm feeling bullish for next week, but tomorrow stock is green, buy back the 710cc (at whatever price, could be a loss or a gain) but also don't roll yet and wait and see what happens
I still believe that any rally will be a bear market rally instead of a reversal , but when these pumps happen it's hard to not feel fomo (yesterday I almost bought back 100 shares that got ITM after hours last friday and assigned, but i didn't and am glad for it)
I need to think about it some more , but I don't know if i feel bullish or bearish yet, the volatility is making me not just bi polar, more like quad polar, maybe i m getting schizophrenia from this
Still holding my 9/16/2022 $700cc that was rolled from 5/27 $600cc, there's barely any decay of time value on them since I rolled on 5/26, it's been 3 weeks (sold for $111 when the stock was around $708, i think yesterday it was still as high as $107 when the stock was around 700)which is a bit annoying, as i m tying up shares when i could be selling weeklies to take advantage of these volatility to make more cash to either buy shares or derisk.
Also have a 6/17 $2475c expiring that I opened back in March as a bait (would have been happy to sell at $2475, a price that didn't seem impossible at the time, but now looks like might take years to reach again
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Xepa777
Banned
85% probability of tomorrow being green day since the VIX has spiked so statistically 85% chance of recovery. We will see if the trader I know has good indicators to predict the market actions. He says his 5 indicators give him a 70% probability of success on every trading day. Nasdaq future +0.80%.
Brace up for a green day heading toward week end.
Are you guys selling CCs into strength tomorrow if green day or waiting for Tuesday?
Brace up for a green day heading toward week end.
Are you guys selling CCs into strength tomorrow if green day or waiting for Tuesday?
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sigh, i am having more fun in this forum than at the office so i decided to retire again... i gave notice tonight to my boss
even though it's a tough macro environment, i found that the secret is really, really very simple:
- just stay away from the sun so there's no panic and anger during 10% drops... that means lower income but at least it is consistent and good enough to pay bills... the exception are my brave "dare me" -p590 puts but that's because i don't mind collecting shares now
- always keep "black swan" in mind - there is ALWAYS another one coming when you least expect it
GOOD NEWS
- you'll be seeing more of me
BAD NEWS
- you'll be seeing more of me
Tuesday
methinks i need to be cautious on CC heading into June monthend due to "portfolio window dressing"... i could be wrong!
I'm certainly torn on CC selling. I believe Tesla will end the year much higher than where we are today. However I think the prudent move is to risk off from a portfolio management perspective.
With that in mind I am chewing on the idea of turning my various bullish call spreads into calendar spreads by rolling the short calls out to June 2024 at the same strikes. Most likely I'll do this slowly over time which should reduce leverage, give up upside, but ultimately risk off.
Best of luck to everyone with their trades!
I have little margin room, and lots of -1150/+850 for 12/16/22. Roughly $264 to close each one right now. I've tried going to 3X 100 wide, 6X 50 wide and I can't find anything that works to bring the strikes down. Any ideas?
I'm in a similar position having lots of -1200/+1100 BPS for Jan'23. A key realisation I have come to is that holding these in my account makes me extremely leveraged to the point that my account value drops at a much greater % relative to the share price falling %. The opposite is also true for the share price going up, where my account will gain much more value due to the extra leverage. Essentially these DITM BPS are allowing me to artificially inflate my share count for leverage.
The ideal situation would be to de-leverage when the share price is going down and then re-leverage up when the share price rises. I've experimented with this a bit but it is obviously very tricky having to time the market. There's also the issue of capital gains when selling shares to deleverage - but that's not a significant issue for me this year. The key thing to realise is that it's possible to deleverage on the way down and then leverage up again on the way up (resell BPS and rebuy shares). In the process you could come out well ahead (subject to any CG impact). With the reaction to Q2 P&D looking to be negative, I'm viewing the period between now and the earnings report (~ 21 July) to be a deleverage period. I'd just like a decent pop to make it more palatable to deleverage against.
-20% for a BPS in 2022 while very safe, is also very conservative and likely selling yourself short on premiums earned. Everyone needs to make their own call on what they consider 'safe' for a given trading week. But I've found doing your own data analysis and making calculated decisions based on this to be worthwhile.
The largest Monday open to Friday close drop in the last 2 years has been 13.5%, which was the Business Insider SpaceX harassment hit piece and coordinated Bear Raid on Friday the 20th of May. There was also a 13.4% drop further back on 5th March 2021 during a heightened tech sell off and FUD period. Apart from that most biggest drops are in the 10-11.4% range until you get way back to the March 2020 COVID drop, which was quite an anomaly.
The difference in options premiums for a -13.5% BPS and a -20% BPS can be around 2.5X depending on IV, spread etc. You need to consider position size, early close if risky and recovery options if there is an anomoly. The size of premium you can collect and build up in the first place is another factor that can influence the options available.
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Took advantage of the big move down today to close cc's that are part of buy-write positions. I had 680 and 650 strike cc's expiring this week.
The 680s were something like $18 in, $1.80 out ($16 gain). The 650s were something like $43 in, $9 out - about $34 gain.
The account where I ran the 650s now has a break even at $650. The overall position looks like share purchase at 720ish with $70ish worth of realized gains, and $80ish worth of unrealized losses. I'll be looking to reenter with these calls tomorrow on a decent regression in the share price.
The 680s were something like $18 in, $1.80 out ($16 gain). The 650s were something like $43 in, $9 out - about $34 gain.
The account where I ran the 650s now has a break even at $650. The overall position looks like share purchase at 720ish with $70ish worth of realized gains, and $80ish worth of unrealized losses. I'll be looking to reenter with these calls tomorrow on a decent regression in the share price.
corduroy
Active Member
Bad news for your boss, great news for us - more Google sheet charts!
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