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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Opened multiple BPS positions today for 6/24 with highest short put at 650. Incredible we have these 1 DTE opportunities.
This was partly fueled by FOMO by having missed a STO yesterday on 6/24 760C at the height for $11 (my limit at $12). This was 80% profit yesterday and probably 99% today.
Closed all 6/24 BPS almost max profit thanks to morning bump. Reasons for 1 DTE 7% OTM puts/BPS were:
- Relatively less volatile down swings for the week compared to last week
- Yoona's post-week analysis of triple witching being up last 4 quarters
- max pain at ~710 throughout the week
- short strikes I felt were good resistance levels in the recent down turns
 
I didn't wake up early enough but the 750c would have been a good day trade, low is $4.9, high $15.10.

I sold another 750c just now at $9.10 when the stock is around $726. I'm willing to let some shares go at $750 to derisk before Q2. Or they can all expire worthless :cool:
BTC 1x6/24 750c $10.25 > 0.7 (stock around $732), opened replacement position 7/1 770c $10.30.
BTC 1x6/24 750c $9.1 > 0.78 (stock around $733), going to wait and see before I open a replacement position in this account

still have 2x9/16 700c.
 
BTC 1x6/24 750c $10.25 > 0.7 (stock around $732), opened replacement position 7/1 770c $10.30.
BTC 1x6/24 750c $9.1 > 0.78 (stock around $733), going to wait and see before I open a replacement position in this account

still have 2x9/16 700c.

There is supposed to be the annual Russell 1000 rebalancing after close which should favor Tesla and the P&D report coming out on Saturday.... next week we might gap up.
 
Well, it looks like I got today wrong. Didn’t move fast enough this AM, because I was expecting 705-710. Closed -c730s and -c750s for another $1-$2 profit from yesterday. Unfortunately, the -c720s got steamrolled and had to roll them to next week’s 755s for $2 credit. Oh well, I can keep rolling until they match up with my Sept p1000s. Oops, should read the forums quicker. Wealth of knowledge here. Thx to all.
 
Quick note for today - if you have any CC's that are close or threatened... please close them out or roll them before the closing cross.
The Russell 1k is rebalancing to move TSLA up to #5 by weight, I know most of you have seen this news, this is not as extreme as the S&P inclusion when the Closing Cross was almost 95M shares but it will be up significantly from the normal Closing Cross volume of around 500k shares.

Depending on how the bids are worked out for the shares it could be up significantly in AH and lead to some exercises.

In addition, IV is pretty low right now for next week, so be careful looking to sell CC's or CSP today for next week.

I closed my second round of $750 CC's this morning for $0.30 - round trip for both sales of these this week was $20, not a bad deal.

Also opened a BPS / +C hedge for August
This is -$900 / +$700P for $145 each
and +$700 C's for $100 each
I kept the $45 per contract difference as cash to bolster cash on hand to back these BPS'

As you can probably guess.... ***this is not advice*** ***I am dumb***
This isn't a large bet but looking to see how things move if we run up into earnings and after the P&D report.

Please, as always open to information on why I am so dumb and I should be working at Wendy's
 
Picked up 1000 more shares around 726 for my Jun 2024 CCs. I have a Sell stop loss order at 727 just in case we bleed back down to MaxPain later.
I wanted to get shares near the open, but the RSI kept saying TSLA was overbought, so I waited for an early pull back that never happened.
My stop loss order hit, and then I tried to buy shares again two more times. Each time it went up and back down and triggered my stop loss order. Had to let it go as I was flying my plane after all that. I could buy now and hope the Russell 1,000 gives a boost and we open higher on Monday, but with my Margin limitations if we open lower on Monday I'm not going to take the risk. I'm going to wait and see how Monday morning plays out....
 
Can’t believe I’m writing this but SP into the 700s is most welcome. I’m just not feeling 600s as that was my worse case scenario few months back that shouldn’t happen.

I open 2 850CC for next week even tho I’ll be on vacation. These are 200 shares I got assigned a month back that I was nursing 950p to 920p to buy time. Would love to see these get exercised while I enjoy Hawaii.
 
In addition, IV is pretty low right now for next week, so be careful looking to sell CC's or CSP today for next week.
yes... for those who are trading Fri-to-Fri (7 DTE), there is a 68% chance that next week's Fri Close is below this week's Fri Open.

1656120879140.png


if opened on Fri, "safe OTM" in 2022 for 7 DTE looks like -15% to 16%

1656120475640.png


NOT ADVICE. Do not use for trading.
 
yes... for those who are trading Fri-to-Fri (7 DTE), there is a 68% chance that next week's Fri Close is below this week's Fri Open.

View attachment 820769

if opened on Fri, "safe OTM" in 2022 for 7 DTE looks like -15% to 16%

View attachment 820768

NOT ADVICE. Do not use for trading.
Except that the market might have bottomed, and there may be P&D FOMO next week, so I think the % for this year may not apply anymore...? 🤷‍♂️
 
Except that the market might have bottomed, and there may be P&D FOMO next week, so I think the % for this year may not apply anymore...? 🤷‍♂️

I'm taking the contrarian position that there won't be FOMO this week, since the P&D report comes out on Saturday at the earliest, and that we've merely hit a market dead-cat bounce.

There! Now that we've taken opposite viewpoints, let's see how the market attempts to screw us both!!
 
Except that the market might have bottomed, and there may be P&D FOMO next week, so I think the % for this year may not apply anymore...? 🤷‍♂️

That is exactly the stance taken by the day trader I know. From a technical analysis stand point he gives a 80% probability of TSLA bouncing to 900 by the end of next week. Can’t wait to see what he is using to support that. But if he’s right, I will listen more often to his calls.
 
That is exactly the stance taken by the day trader I know. From a technical analysis stand point he gives a 80% probability of TSLA bouncing to 900 by the end of next week. Can’t wait to see what he is using to support that. But if he’s right, I will listen more often to his calls.
A broken clock is right twice a day....
 
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