Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[BrownOuttaSpec]

does anyone know where to get a list of TSLA historical P&D announcement dates? TIA!

not the results, but the dates when the results were released

Tesla Investor Relations has the actual PDF results and on each report there is a date which it was announced. It might be a little more manual work that you intended but it might be quicker than trying to search for the right website/spreadsheet.

 

[Yoona]

Tesla Investor Relations has the actual PDF results and on each report there is a date which it was announced. It might be a little more manual work that you intended but it might be quicker than trying to search for the right website/spreadsheet.

View attachment 820936

someone should report the typo on Tesla Investor Relations

2019 Q2 earnings date is july 24, not june 24

 

[ReddyLeaf]

That is exactly the stance taken by the day trader I know. From a technical analysis stand point he gives a 80% probability of TSLA bouncing to 900 by the end of next week. Can’t wait to see what he is using to support that. But if he’s right, I will listen more often to his calls.

Given the historical data that Yoona has presented, maybe you should believe the opposite of that guy. Options market indicates <2% chance of hitting 900 next week (c900s were $0.50, 0.014 delta). I would love to see similar results as those three weeks around July 2020. Yes, it’s possible, especially if P&D exceeds Q1 levels (305/310k) and Tesla guides to 2M annual. Maybe they really sandbagged us this quarter. Anybody YOLO buy 100x c900s?

yes... for those who are trading Fri-to-Fri (7 DTE), there is a 68% chance that next week's Fri Close is below this week's Fri Open.

View attachment 820769

if opened on Fri, "safe OTM" in 2022 for 7 DTE looks like -15% to 16%

View attachment 820768

NOT ADVICE. Do not use for trading.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Given the historical data that Yoona has presented, maybe you should believe the opposite of that guy. Options market indicates <2% chance of hitting 900 next week (c900s were $0.50, 0.014 delta). I would love to see similar results as those three weeks around July 2020. Yes, it’s possible, especially if P&D exceeds Q1 levels (305/310k) and Tesla guides to 2M annual. Maybe they really sandbagged us this quarter. Anybody YOLO buy 100x c900s?

I don’t believe anyone can predict anything short term but I like to listen to different theories and see in retrospect

 

[mickle]

I haven't posted here in a while. I rolled all my BPS about a month ago, far out to October and beyond in order to be able to travel a lot this summer and not have to watch the market every minute. The last few weeks I've been doing a few safe BPS and CC's (last week had a 510/610 BPS and an 840 CC), most of them with <5 DTE, some just 1-2 days. My current open BPS positions are:

10/21 480/680
10/21 500/650
10/21 500/700
11/18 500/700
11/18 550/700
11/18 600/750
11/18 600/800
11/18 650/850
12/16 600/800

Only slightly worried about the >800 puts, but expecting stock to go up by the Q3 earnings report.

 

[FlamingPIG]

I don’t believe anyone can predict anything short term but I like to listen to different theories and see in retrospect

I think I will take Elon prediction more serious next time. After all, he start up one of the first internet money company and also predicted the dot com crash.

 

[intelligator]

I am traveling all week, will not be actively trading, limit order maybe. I like 3-4 DTE opened Tuesday and closed Friday mornings or allowed to expire worthless those not-so volatile weeks. Ignore the date on the below chart, I have to change the code to work off the expiry. The gamma exposure is for July 1st expiry. 700-800 is a bit call biased, slightly less put interest down through the mid 6's. Depending what happens Monday and if the lower range remains busy and solid, I may again plant a few CSP at 675.

 

[bballshinobi]

That is exactly the stance taken by the day trader I know. From a technical analysis stand point he gives a 80% probability of TSLA bouncing to 900 by the end of next week. Can’t wait to see what he is using to support that. But if he’s right, I will listen more often to his calls.

Not gonna happen, because I bought $800 calls for next Friday.

 

[Yoona]

all eyes are on next Saturday's P&D Press Release

based on TSLA history, there is a 59% chance that next week is green (buy the rumor, sell the news?)

those trading Mon-Fri (4 DTE) will need a wide OTM range; CCs may be in danger

all bets are off if macros tank or another Fed mouth opens or we have yet-another-st*pid-tweet

NOT ADVICE. DO NOT USE FOR TRADING.

 

[Knightshade]

So you're saying ICs 25% OTM on call side and 15% OTM on put side

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Not gonna happen, because I bought $800 calls for next Friday.

Keep the faith. The trend is good right now and 800 is certainly possible with five days rising in anticipation of P&D and end of month retirement DCA buying. I’m not planning to sell CCs until at least Wednesday, and probably not until Thursday 20% OTM, probably 905s though I might get crazy with 855s. IV is just seems too low, plus I still have to worry about my steamrolled c755s. I don’t know, maybe this week will be a bust, nothing happening until a late Friday run up, and it’s better to sell 905s on Monday and close Thursday. Who knows. In any case, I had a pretty good run this week, adding 10 more shares and some reserve cash. Monthly cumulative so far is 2x my salary, I just need to not blow it like I did the last week in May. Anyway, here’s the TA graph and the trend is up.

 

[Chenkers]

all eyes are on next Saturday's P&D Press Release

based on TSLA history, there is a 59% chance that next week is green (buy the rumor, sell the news?)

those trading Mon-Fri (4 DTE) will need a wide OTM range; CCs may be in danger

all bets are off if macros tank or another Fed mouth opens or we have yet-another-st*pid-tweet

View attachment 821118

View attachment 821104

NOT ADVICE. DO NOT USE FOR TRADING.

I don't see us doing anything like the 24.73% rise for Q2 2020. That quarter was a sensational beat with Tesla delivering 90,650 cars compared to the 72,000 expected (+25%). There was also the expectation of a profitable 4th quarter in a row leading to S&P500 inclusion - although that didn't happen till a later quarter. Data analysis is great but it also needs some context to evaluate it against.

This quarter could be anything from a decent miss to a modest beat. Even if there is a good beat, there are so many question marks over the earnings result (Bitcoin, shutdown costs, redundancies etc) that any run up based on P&D would be muted. If it's a decent miss the pirates will look to push us down but shouldn't get too far unless macros provide assistance.

I'll likely treat it as a normal week of late, knowing that we could go up or down based on macros or unforeseen news. That will mean looking to sell BPS (-11.5 to -13.5%) on a Monday MMD and then waiting until a run-up gathers momentum on Monday or even Tuesday to sell CC and BCS (+16 to 17%).

 

[Max Plaid]

Well, the 2x -p725/-c725 straddle worked-out OK, I closed the call side on Thursday and the puts on Friday. My AAPL shares that were assigned last week did OK, I had already sold 7/1 -c150's against them, which are already ITM and would mean a small net loss on the whole chain of trades, but nothing like the big realised loss that I would have taken if I had rebought the ITM puts last week

Where I did lose out was in my small ARKK trades with -c42's now rolled to next week, and really bad, the GOOGK -c2200's, I managed to bail-out of these soon after open, but the damage was already done. What's super-annoying is that I tried to close these out on Thursday in the minutes before market close, but was out walking the dogs and kept getting an error on the broker app on my phone, so missed the chance, and three. me into a loss for the week, I had a bad feeling about them Wednesday onwards, I should have acted sooner on my instinct there

I've no open short positions for TSLA or GOOGL and am very shy of cc's right now -> I've been scratching my head as to why GOOGL hasn't been rising into pending split, maybe now it's starting and will help support the rally?

If my LEAPS go into profit, the I plan to close them all out, they carry too much risk right now, I'd prefer to buy some shares in the next dip, and I'm also looking to get totally out of AAPL, GOOGL and ARKK - diversification was a mistake for me, I just don't have the time or mental bandwidth to follow more than one stock, I'll go back to focussing on TSLA, as-and-when markets allow it

 

[Drezil]

That is exactly the stance taken by the day trader I know. From a technical analysis stand point he gives a 80% probability of TSLA bouncing to 900 by the end of next week. Can’t wait to see what he is using to support that. But if he’s right, I will listen more often to his calls.

All the TA YouTube & my own opinion says:
Either we go to 900 in 2 weeks as we reached bottom OR we got resistance at 775 & reverse another leg down. Going to 620 again and breaking to 550 to forma lower low.
This pattern is visible in ALL indices, especially s&p and NASDAQ.

We are in a bear trend and a bear market until we are not. Current price action had not confirmed a reversal. We never made higher highs and higher lows up to now.
Staying below 775 would form a lower high and this implies a lower low under 620.
Price action would dictate we need to go over 775, form a higher high, then a higher low over 700 to confirm a trend higher towards 900. Only then we can be relatively sure the bottom is in.
Currently the daily and weekly charts look more like a bear ralley before we go another leg lower in the market as a whole. But it could also be the beginning of a reversal as well. Price action over 900 in the next 2-3 weeks would break the bear trend - or could confirm it with a hard elevator down on inflation numbers when we reach such prices.

I am slightly optimistic, but on up days I will buy puts as protection to take profits on those if we take the elevator down again.

 

[Yoona]

what happens to tsla AFTER the P&D is released?

whether results were good news or bad news, tsla is in the last 5 consecutive quarters.

NOT ADVICE. DO NOT USE FOR TRADING.

 

[EVMeister]

what happens to tsla AFTER the P&D is released?

whether results were good news or bad news, tsla is in the last 5 consecutive quarters.

View attachment 821281

View attachment 821282

NOT ADVICE. DO NOT USE FOR TRADING.

Advice taken. Will trade based on this and blame you if unsuccessful.

 

[Xepa777]

Advice taken. Will trade based on this and blame you if unsuccessful.

Yes I too interpret this as financial advice and shall sell ATM calls on my entire Tesla position next week

 

[BornToFly]

what happens to tsla AFTER the P&D is released?

whether results were good news or bad news, tsla is in the last 5 consecutive quarters.

View attachment 821281

View attachment 821282

NOT ADVICE. DO NOT USE FOR TRADING.

So negative.... It was up the previous 9 quarters (before the negative streak of 5). Maybe it's time for it to turn around again!

 

[Yoona]

has anyone tried "put backspread"?

• for anyone with a BPS that is facing max loss; it can be given the chance to recover by converting it into a "put backspread"; essentially, a BPS with +p at least 2x the -p to help limit or prevent max loss on steep drops
• for anyone thinking of a potential drop post-P&D
• for anyone thinking the uptick rule will be triggered again

Put Backspread Explained | Online Option Trading Guide

What is Put Backspread? See detailed explanations and examples on how and when to use the Put Backspread options trading strategy.

www.theoptionsguide.com

"It is an unlimited profit, limited risk options trading strategy that is taken when the options trader thinks that the underlying stock will experience significant downside movement in the near term."

Put Backspread | Back Spread Options - The Options Playbook

A put ratio backspread is a very bullish seasoned option strategy involving the sell and buying of puts, at different strike prices, that expire in the same month.

www.optionsplaybook.com

"This is a trade you might want to consider just prior to a major news event if you expect the outcome to be negative."

Put Backspread Guide [Setup, Entry, Adjustments, Exit]

Put backspreads are bearish strategies that require a significant move down in the underlying stock. Learn more with our put backspread strategy guide.

optionalpha.com

"A put backspread is a multi-leg, risk-defined, bearish strategy with unlimited profit potential. The strategy looks to take advantage of a significant move down in the underlying stock."

 

[vikings123]

Buy/Write tax related question especially for folks trading on Interactive Brokers:

My understanding is that your option premium for covered calls is lumped into the P&L of your shares. So for example if I bought shares at 726 and sold ITM 725 calls for 7$ my cost basis is 726 and my P&L price for the option that got exercised is 732.

I had a couple of options that got exercised over the weekend and it does not appear to be considering the premium that I received for the covered call and hence reporting a loss which triggers wash sale rule on some additional buy/writes I made. So in the above example it is reporting my cost basis as 726 and hence a 100$ loss on the 100 shares.

Is IB different or does it just take some additional time for this to reflect the premium you received in your tax optimizer?