Credit rating upgrade is the most likely.
There is a small-but-not-zero chance they will announce a stock buyback. Gary Black has been asking for it. I think it’s too soon, but maybe?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
There is a small-but-not-zero chance they will announce a stock buyback. Gary Black has been asking for it. I think it’s too soon, but maybe?
As someone who also thought 900 for this Friday was a safe bet, what’s your plan?
I’ve been considering taking a loss, waiting it out, or rolling it out a couple weeks to the monthly at around 940-960 for no credit.
I'd avoided CC and BCS last week but today the market provided ideal conditions to get back into them. I opened 1050 CC, 1050/1080 BCS and 1075/1120 BCS either side of the run up (missed the $935 peak). I'd also left some 770/810 BPS orders open for $2 before going to bed and managed to get a fill on those during the 2pm dip (4am my time).
I'm only at around half my tradable margin allocated for the week and expect we'll get further opportunities over the next couple of days. The rise this morning felt like naked short covering or gamma squeeze followed by a walk down, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this pattern repeated. There should also be some good opportunities to day trade CC's between the early peak and MMD.
I'm only at around half my tradable margin allocated for the week and expect we'll get further opportunities over the next couple of days. The rise this morning felt like naked short covering or gamma squeeze followed by a walk down, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this pattern repeated. There should also be some good opportunities to day trade CC's between the early peak and MMD.
jeewee3000
Active Member
I was holding on to 8/19 cc's (960's and 970's).
At the open today I rolled these as follows, to increase chances (IMO) of OTM expiration (or at least half the value of the position):
960cc's became:
-1000cc (call side) // -800p/+730p (bps on put side)
970cc's became:
-1000cc (call side) // -760p/+700p (bps on put side)
All positions still with 8/19 expiration date. And all rolls for slight credit. (~$1.xx each)
I think the 1000cc's are most likely to be threatened, but they can be rolled (and split up again if need be).
The BPS'es depend on macros of course, but 800 should provide strong support. If we visit the 700's I will roll the put sides immediately (most likely together with the cc's, rolling both sides further OTM).
Not advice. Just explaining my reasoning for your viewing pleasure and for personal reference.
At the open today I rolled these as follows, to increase chances (IMO) of OTM expiration (or at least half the value of the position):
960cc's became:
-1000cc (call side) // -800p/+730p (bps on put side)
970cc's became:
-1000cc (call side) // -760p/+700p (bps on put side)
All positions still with 8/19 expiration date. And all rolls for slight credit. (~$1.xx each)
I think the 1000cc's are most likely to be threatened, but they can be rolled (and split up again if need be).
The BPS'es depend on macros of course, but 800 should provide strong support. If we visit the 700's I will roll the put sides immediately (most likely together with the cc's, rolling both sides further OTM).
Not advice. Just explaining my reasoning for your viewing pleasure and for personal reference.
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I've been spending more time thinking about taking the loss on the cc, over closing the entire position for a small profit. The small profit in the overall position would actually be a pretty decent out come - about +$60 between the leap STC (gain) and the cc BTC (loss).
In this particular instance I'm not thrilled with just rolling - if my thesis is right about the split then closing the short calls is a loss ($25) that will be made up very quickly by a rising share price - given that I follow through and sell the calls anyway as the shares go up.
The net for me, right now, is I'm sitting and watching. Each day that goes by, the less and less time value remaining in the position and the better the roll. The loss might be bigger or smaller depending on actual movements in the share price.
Sitting and watching, so far this week, is tough.
john tanglewoo
2012 Roadster Owner
Sold Aug 26 1040 calls @ 17, premium was looking good and TSLA has enjoyed a really nice run up over the past week
yeah.. looks like might be best to let my -c755 exercise and buy leaps with the cash after that.. it's getting sort of deep itm 
Do you guys expect a sale off when they approve the additional shares for the split?
If approved - and a date is announced within the end of the EPP (employee stock purchase plan / which ends August 31st) I would not anticipate a sell off - rather a rapid ascent up.
Shorts would need to pile out rapidly (especially naked shorts) and also momentum traders, T.A. traders, just really anyone with a memory of the last time it happened to try and jump in quickly - thus creating a ton of upward pressure.
If they do not announce a "split" date - then yes I can see us dumping a bit to the $815 level..... unless there is something else that is a catalyst that creates buying pressure.
There is a kind of pattern where high expectations for an event (GM or quarterly ER) create a "buy the rumor, sell the news" situation, i.e. stock runs up the days prior to the event, then dips right after. So that could happen, but if split time is announced and it is close, that should cause naked short covering rally.
corduroy
Active Member
Still sitting on the sidelines: afraid to sell any calls, and no drops big enough to sell puts.
So I tried something new, Near the high today I bought some puts for $2, then sold them an hour later for $2.60 for a quick 30%. I hope this doesn't make me a TSLAQ/bear.
So I tried something new, Near the high today I bought some puts for $2, then sold them an hour later for $2.60 for a quick 30%. I hope this doesn't make me a TSLAQ/bear.
Out of these this morning for $1.50 each - was going to ride it out but the strength that TSLA has shown and meeting tomorrow has created a good exit.
Now what to do!!?? lol
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
That's strike one. But extra credit for honesty.
Let's see a split date announcement and MM's successfully cap at $1000 Friday, so my homies don't get steamrolled. Then a monster spike next 2 weeks on covering!
jeewee3000
Active Member
To be fair, anytime we sell a BPS we buy a put. So all of us have blood on our hands. That's what the main thread
interesting article about selling PUTW (put-writes)... is OTM better? DOTM? ATM? ITM?
seekingalpha.com
Selling Puts: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly
What accounts for put-write strategies' under-performance. How to fix put-write underperformance.
seekingalpha.com
Maybe it’s both:
They could request and pay for a credit analysis from S&P so they can sell bonds at a better rate. And then sell bonds to buy back stock. Like Apple. I would support that.
I do understand the idea; as a Tesla investor I don't want to see them doing that sort of thing. I am likely to come out ahead at the end as a TSLA investor.
The reason I don't want to see that sort of thing (borrow to buy back shares, or pay a dividend, or really anything) is that it reflects a different mindset for operating a company. These are the sorts of things that finance people do to optimize company value, or at least value as measured in their compensation package.
With a hyper engineering focus, I prefer seeing the debt paid off until its all gone. With debt paid off, all investments fully funded using internally generated cash, and a really big cash hoard built up (not Apple big, but big) -- then I really do want to see quarterly dividends.
And those quarterly dividends are the first thing to go before the company borrows. If they don't need it - then no leverage via borrowed money.
That's just me
Wanted to comment on this - the way I understand shorting (not an expert, but I did research it a fair bit before lending out my shares awhile back), the shorts that have borrowed shares have no mechanical reason to close their positions. Their positions will go along with the split like any others. Any more than longs have a reason to enter positions ahead of the split.
The mechanics keep everything unchanged in value. It's the perceptions and stuff that lead to the share price going up, to the degree that it goes.
The wild card are the naked shorts. Naked shorts haven't borrowed the shares they've sold. These are the positions that will take a 2/3rds haircut if not closed prior to the split, as there won't be the incremental 2 shares issued for each Tesla issued share on these. Instead the creator of the shares will need to issue the 2 extra shares and they'll have to do it at the pre-split price.
So they'll close those naked shorts ahead of time.
The wild card is that we don't know how big this pool is. And therefore how much bigger the real / functional float is, and thus how much is coming out of the float between now and the split.
The wild card is why I'm wanting to watch the split from the sidelines (in case of the big share price rise that might happen). Then I went and sold 900s for this Friday -- oops
interesting article about selling PUTW (put-writes)... is OTM better? DOTM? ATM? ITM?
Selling Puts: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly
What accounts for put-write strategies' under-performance. How to fix put-write underperformance.
Really interesting
I have been trying to sell ITM and hold the strike however it seem it his the 2nd best return of investment from his analysis
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