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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Why does everyone suddenly think Elon is selling? TSLA ticker pretty much followed the shape of the Nasdaq, S&P, and the Dow today + typical Tesla "sell the news" beta. 👀

P.S. - I was hoping when I sold Puts yesterday that this time would be different, but I never learn.... o_O
I was certain EM was selling last time, correctly so.

I am not certain this time. Could well be as you write. Monday will provide clarity.
 
Guys, when Elon sold last time, there were high probable clue as he was trying to aquire Twitter - that require lots of cash.
This time, what could possibly be the reason why he sold? I haven't seen a single reasonable answer.

Haven't seen any evidence that he sold, just a lot of speculation.

My 0.02, this was just a "sell the news" day after a big 40% run-up in the past month.

We'll know in a few days definitively, by keeping tabs on the Form 4 filings.
 
Haven't seen any evidence that he sold, just a lot of speculation.

My 0.02, this was just a "sell the news" day after a big 40% run-up in the past month.

We'll know in a few days definitively, by keeping tabs on the Form 4 filings.
This. There's always profit-taking and such after such a big run-up.
Healthy to have a pull back. I'd expect more red than green next week.
 
Guys, when Elon sold last time, there were high probable clue as he was trying to aquire Twitter - that require lots of cash.
This time, what could possibly be the reason why he sold? I haven't seen a single reasonable answer.
Based on what was reported in TMC about stockholder meeting. EM mentioned TWTR as if it was something that was going to happen. So if he did it would be for TWTR again. As you write, that requires lots of cash.

Again, while there was relentless bid hitting selling all day on high volume while the indexes were basically flat, I am not convinced this was EM. Sell the news, swing trading, FUD and bear raiding could have managed it just fine.
 
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(opens calculator and types in the numbers and then falls off the chair) : 2x the avg income of the last 16 weeks! :)

this week has been very good to me and i am very thankful to everyone 🙏 , i read and like every post even if i forget to click on👍

few things i learned recently (from my notes):
  • don't be ashamed/afraid of small gains and leaving money on the table; 4 quarters still add up to a dollar
  • ignore noise (ie other thread's opinions that have no facts); focus on hard data and don't follow the crowd
  • everyone on news/social media has an agenda or bias, trust in your own research
  • plan your trade and trade your plan (this prevents emotional and spur-of-the-moment actions)
  • have discipline (don't just trade left and right especially if they were unplanned the night before)
  • have self-control especially when tempted; don't get caught up in the moment
  • stick to the plan and don't abandon your strategy while thinking fast about something new
  • the point is to reduce emotions, not remove emotions; we are not algo-bots
  • let your stop loss or exit plan determine when to close a losing position; hoping for a reverse is not a strategy
  • you can't control stock price up and down, but you can control your exit; there is nobody to blame for a large loss
  • you don't need to time the lowest dip and highest peak, all you need is a piece of the move; stop maximizing gain
  • you don't need to trade all the time, if there is no opportunity then rest on the sidelines 💤
  • think of risk-reward ratio; is risking $10k to gain $10 really worth it even at OTM, what if there is black swan tom?
  • overtrading increases chance of losses, stop the addiction
  • it's ok to relax on Mondays... sometimes, the best credits arrive on Wed/Thur
  • don't do revenge trades (to make up for loss) if you didn't really think about the risk of the position's quick payback
  • if lost money, there is no shame in walking away to try again another day
  • if you don't want to own the stock, don't sell the put too aggressively (and then spend weeks fixing a problem)
  • plan your trade's entry and exit; if there is no plan then it's gambling
  • it's ok to earn even just a little here and there, stop trying to get rich quick
  • it only takes one mistake to undo months of work
  • options is not a salaried job, stop thinking you need to have a certain income every week (ie force a trade)
  • there is no perfect strategy, all you can do is be consistent in following what works for you
  • if you are not constantly looking at the stock price, then your process/system is working
  • most problems are caused by sizing; reduce size and you have less problems
  • focus more on why you are opening a position, not how to fix it once problem comes
  • institutions are the ones making money, so observe/follow what they are doing
  • you don't need to be good at everything, master what works for you and consistently do it
  • being consistent doesn't mean profit is also consistent; it means you have discipline
  • if you only care for a 2 DTE trade, why do you worry about next month's stock price?
  • you can't control steep drops and hikes, so focus on what you can control: entry and exit
  • most of all and most important, protect your capital
  • the real goal is not to earn $$$ a week, it's to make sure positions have high probability of success
  • if you want good income, then have high-probability setups
  • ask yourself "how much can i lose?" instead of "how much can i make?"
  • making money is the easiest part, preventing a large loss is why we plan ahead (entry/exit)
  • control risk: it is not sexy and it is not popular because it means less income, but do it or you will lose everything
😬
Superb post! Agree with all.

Making options trades now for 4+ years as a daily thought process has brought me to similar, if not exact, state of mind. As I read through these I'm reminded of mistakes, missteps, absentmindedness and outright brain farts.

I build a strategy based on guiding principles with an exit point, stick to the plan and pay attention at key points (like the Annual Shareholder Meeting, Triple Witching end of quarter dates, Max Pain and Volumes and major macro events)

Your post is something that everyone can benefit from at any point where there is doubt. Options trading, just like any endeavor, can be pushed too far with exceptional (maybe exponential) temptations.

I've got only two open positions currently that I placed awhile back -p$1000 8/19 and -p$1050 9/16. I made these back in Feb thinking that if I end up being assigned, it will have been worth it no matter what happens to the SP between then and expiry for all the reasons you mentioned (and it was hard watching the SP go to $600) but I realized that a potential "black swan event" could occur (and it did, TWO in fact as I feel the Ukraine invasion and Covid Shanghai shutdown had a huge impact on SP). However, these puts have paid for my mortgage for the entire year and I'm good with whatever the SP is on those dates AS I TRUST that the SP will be above those strikes soon enough.
 
Time to buy calls for Monday?

Looks like many have for $1000 and above, but not very many for lower strikes.



Screenshot 2022-08-07 6.11.00 AM.png


The following week (8/19 expiry) has a much higher wall at $900 (9500 vs 2900 open interest) and the $1000 grows to 14000 vs 8900 open interest.

Screenshot 2022-08-07 6.14.38 AM.png


As a data reference point. Looking yet another week out (8/26 expiry), the chart seems a bit more normal with very low walls (aka just a noise floor)

Screenshot 2022-08-07 6.25.21 AM.png
 
Do you guys think that we are going to run up towards the stock split? I know Google and Amazon didn't get a huge run up but this is Tesla who we are talking about lol. IV is really low in the low 50's. If the macro was good and there was no Twitter stuff it would be a no brainer. I wonder what some like Emmet is doing 🤔.

Depends on how much naked shorts you think are out there. I think the last split caused such a big spike because market makers needed to close out a lot of naked shorted shares, but this time they've had ample time to take care of it since the announcement on March 28th. I personally don't think we will go up too much, but I'd be happy to be wrong.

In case you want to read up about the mechanism of why a stock split can cause a squeeze for the naked short sellers: LINK
 
The price action on Friday did not look like massive selling by a single entity, EM or otherwise. Those days were characterized by high volume sell blocks that persisted for ~30 minutes multiple times during the day. Friday was more of a gradual persistent bleed.

This pull back was not surprising after a huge run up over several weeks. All it took was a modest “negative” economic news to spark traders to lock in gains and seek safety.

I try not to listen to trading gurus that confidently predict the days/weeks ahead based on this or that pattern. Every time they are spectacularly wrong they simply come out with a new equally confident prediction. I lose badly when I trade based on what I (or someone else) think the stock will do over the coming days/weeks rather than what is actually happening. This is why I moved to day trading and holding stock long term.

I don’t have a prediction going forward other than we will not likely be trading sideways.
 
Hi all, any of you use or know of an options selection tool/app that helps recommend/evaluate optimal strategy and strike to use on a given day? I see there is OptionStrat which looks cool to use, but curious what else is out there.

Of course we have Yoona and all of you here, I mean in addition to that ;-)
 
Hi all, any of you use or know of an options selection tool/app that helps recommend/evaluate optimal strategy and strike to use on a given day? I see there is OptionStrat which looks cool to use, but curious what else is out there.

Of course we have Yoona and all of you here, I mean in addition to that ;-)
Optionprofitcalculator.com has an option finder, but you need to specify your expected price and time frame and it suggests various option strategies.
 
i am trying to script this but i don't get it... even if one can see the chain's volume data in realtime, how does anyone know if a call/put is sold or bought?!? TIA!

they are likely looking at the realtime transaction flow, and infer from the price at which the trade executed whether it was bought or sold. The assumption is that if an option was traded at the ask, it was bought; if it was traded at the bid, it was sold.
 
they are likely looking at the realtime transaction flow, and infer from the price at which the trade executed whether it was bought or sold. The assumption is that if an option was traded at the ask, it was bought; if it was traded at the bid, it was sold.


That makes sense. At times I have to give a few more coin to get a BTC order to fill. Isn't there also something that may be inferred by the bid ask spread such as the level of interest for the strike?