Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

Bears bashing down the $QQQ as soon as it gets to/near $327, they must be shorting like crazy, but price action looking overall bullish, so don't know if they can continue like this... beats watching sports...

 

[CHGolferJim]

In preparation for the split and possible Twitter resolution, I closed 54% of my covered calls: 8/19 $975 at 50% profit in 2 days + half of expensive 9/2 $765 => $3k credit by selling 4/21/23 $975 (cost on a buy-write from some months ago that has stagnated during the SP drop).

 

[Max Plaid]

Easy-peasy, shorty-squeezie...

 

[WattsHappening]

I, too, hope I'm wrong, but I just know in my gut that I'm probably not. My wave count is validated by the flow of TSLA options I observe everyday. I sell quite a bit of calls and puts - for every $4 I hold in TSLA shares, I have about $1 in naked short calls & puts open at all time. As such, I have an acute sense of what the real flow is in TSLA. Once a flow has been identified, it will run its course and that can take 1-2 weeks.

From 7/20 - 8/3: massive call inflow. TSLA was an unstoppable beast. Even when the stock was pulling back, call premiums still ramped up.
8/4: calls stopped coming in. The stock made a high of 940. Quite pathetic compared to previous runs. That speaks volume to the overall weakness in the market.
8/5 - 8/11: consistent call outflow. Even on Monday when TSLA popped $50, there was no bullishness in the option flow.
The current trend is down. There's no other way around it.
I don't see this happening, but we still have a window for a breakout as long as TSLA doesn't lose 860. Once we have lost 860, I expect selling pressure to accelerate. Why 860? Because we are still in pullback territory with regard to the bounce from 838 to 890. Once it's become apparent that there's no hope of breaking out, 860 will give and the correction will run full speed.

On a side note, I don't like being thought of as bearish on TSLA. Even when I think it's going down, sometimes a lot, I'm still bullish on the stock. Just trying to use charts and flows to manage my risks and make sure I'll be around when Tesla becomes a $10T company.

Thanks for your thoughts/predictions. It's good to see this kind of concern/warning from someone we know is not a care bear.

I am very curious and will follow along over the next week+. Your technical analysis suggesting this downturn will last until next Friday is in direct opposition to those who suggest next week is when the stock split excitement will result in a pop starting next week.

and hoping also that you are wrong.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Easy-peasy, shorty-squeezie...

Of course, because I sold 900&905 CCs at the open and didn’t close them for 70% gain at the MMD, figuring that the SP couldn’t rise $40 above MaxPain and take out the 900 call wall.

 

[Yoona]

Of course, because I sold 900&905 CCs at the open and didn’t close them for 70% gain at the MMD, figuring that the SP couldn’t rise $40 above MaxPain and take out the 900 call wall.

big fight at R1

 

[Max Plaid]

Of course, because I sold 900&905 CCs at the open and didn’t close them for 70% gain at the MMD, figuring that the SP couldn’t rise $40 above MaxPain and take out the 900 call wall.

I closed out my -c900's and -c925's in the dip, have set a buy for my -p900's and high sells for the same calls for next week

Bears are regrouping, I think, getting ready to defend 13000 on the NasDaq, 330 on $QQQ - which is when the big push-down happened yesterday...

But seriously, other than $billionaire CEO's, who'd be selling $TSLA this close to a split?

 

[UltradoomY]

big fight at R1
View attachment 840128

Of course because R2 is above the $900 wall and with macro cooperating today it will run quick - IMO

 

[ninpb]

Oh man, I needed this winning week. I was sitting out a couple of weeks feeling like a fish out of water, having self doubt with the SP rise to 800's, 900s having spent most of the year doing BPS in the 600s. I agreed with Adiggs in that it can't get much lower than that.
This week's profit is in my top 5.

I did force a couple trades as I just couldn't not open something which led me to a small loss (but actually learned something really important) and a couple of rolls which thankfully I can now close with profit or wheel close to the SP.

 

[scubastevo80]

Closed this week's BPS (830/730) at the open for $0.78. I wrote it two days ago for $1.70 and entered an order before the open to close it at $1.
I got burned last week not just closing for a small loss last Friday so I wanted to avoid that. My personal goal for the rest of the year, assuming I continue to do weeklies, is to take small losses before they turn into big losses.

 

[vikings123]

Lots of 950 call buys coming for next week's expiry. Big bets over 1/2 a million. I guess we are getting ready for the next squeeze. Be careful with selling CCs.

 

[Yoona]

as of noon

 

[ZsoZso]

I closed out my -c900's and -c925's in the dip, have set a buy for my -p900's and high sells for the same calls for next week

Bears are regrouping, I think, getting ready to defend 13000 on the NasDaq, 330 on $QQQ - which is when the big push-down happened yesterday...

But seriously, other than $billionaire CEO's, who'd be selling $TSLA this close to a split?

I just sold some -c900s, because I'm a newbie and want to try this:

Spoiler: this is fun

 

[dl003]

I'm not rooting for TSLA to fall and the market doesn't seem ready to roll over.
I don't see the same weakness in option flow like I did the last 5 days. In fact, it's quite bullish, but not as bullish as pre-August 4th. Maybe this is just a pre-run for Monday.
My line in the sand remains at 890. When TSLA breaks out of 890 on high volume, 1000 will be in play.
SPY seems to want 427 - 429.

 

[intelligator]

But you are right. Better safe than sorry.

Added the following order:
View attachment 840080

Will do the same for my 8/26 BPS

You are rolling this week and two week out BPS to September same strike to avoid assignment if we re-test 838? I can understand the 26th but why today's expiry which can be closed for very little, I'd assume. Meaning, why not close today and open new once the dust settles?

 

[scubastevo80]

I'm not rooting for TSLA to fall and the market doesn't seem ready to roll over.
I don't see the same weakness in option flow like I did the last 5 days. In fact, it's quite bullish, but not as bullish as pre-August 4th. Maybe this is just a pre-run for Monday.
My line in the sand remains at 890. When TSLA breaks out of 890 on high volume, 1000 will be in play.
SPY seems to want 427 - 429.

I hope we continue higher - I played an 8/26 1050/1100 call spread I was hoping to make a few $ on as we move towards split date.

 

[WattsHappening]

For the first time, I allowed a blown up CC to get exercised. In the past, I either rolled or closed out for a loss. First, let me say that I have an unhealthy negative reaction to losing shares. It hurts way more than covering the CC for a loss.

I now have some cash to write a CSP, which I intend to do, as this was the point of allowing my shares to get called away. The only thing is, I want to be a bit more aggressive with strike price. Optimally, I would write CSPs either ATM or slightly in the money. Because the SP ran so far past my CC strike price, I am in a position where I would have to sell a few more shares to provide enough cash in the account to cover the CSP.

What to do? Any non-advice would be appreciated. Sell shares Monday morning and write the CSP immediately? Or watch to see if the SP retraces a bit? Or am I missing a different possible play? This is in a non-margin IRA account.

Following up on this.

First, @samppa suggested selling a put spread. I looked into it but I was not able to get the proper margin level approval because it's in a SEP IRA account, which for some reason doesn't allow Level 2. Not sure I understand that, but whatever. Thanks @samppa again for the recommendation.

Rather than selling a few more shares to enable me to sell a CSP, I went the other direction and bought a June 2024 c450 and March 2024 c900 with the cash from the exercised CC. So far, the value increase of these two calls far outweighs any premiums I might have been able to earn selling puts. Of course, this is due to the SP increasing nicely the last week+.

I learned something about myself during this process. I'm much happier being long (and somewhat leveraged) than being in cash and trying to earn income. I'll still look for opportunities to sell CCs when it feels right. But defying most experts who recommend holding some cash, I'm going to remain fully invested for the time being.

 

[Max Plaid]

I'm not rooting for TSLA to fall and the market doesn't seem ready to roll over.
I don't see the same weakness in option flow like I did the last 5 days. In fact, it's quite bullish, but not as bullish as pre-August 4th. Maybe this is just a pre-run for Monday.
My line in the sand remains at 890. When TSLA breaks out of 890 on high volume, 1000 will be in play.
SPY seems to want 427 - 429.

I'm trying to decide whether to have my 10x -p900's assign or roll them... it's a good roll too, +$17, but if we start to get some traction then can do a lot better with the shares going forwards... and if I can manage to hang onto them a few weeks, I'll have 6000 $TSLA to play covered-calls/buy-writes against

Has $885 been nominated the closing-price, or something, has been stuck here for ages

Edit: $QQQ and $SPY are well above critical resistance now, but IXIC ideally still needs to close about 13k, right?

 

[Discoducky]

It looks like we'll close SPY above $421 which appears to be the end of the bear market; currently it is $425.

I'm not taking any risk for next week at this point selling calls. Waiting for Monday which should hopefully be a spike up and if not, possibly a bleed up if IXIC breaks 13k, it should continue to climb as that is another signal for the end of the bear market.

 

[Max Plaid]

I'm trying to decide whether to have my 10x -p900's assign or roll them... it's a good roll too, +$17, but if we start to get some traction then can do a lot better with the shares going forwards... and if I can manage to hang onto them a few weeks, I'll have 6000 $TSLA to play covered-calls/buy-writes against

Has $885 been nominated the closing-price, or something, has been stuck here for ages

Edit: $QQQ and $SPY are well above critical resistance now, but IXIC ideally still needs to close about 13k, right?

Decided to let the -p900's run - if they assign, great, if they don't, well I'll sell them again for next week...

I'm wary of the IXIC hitting 13000 and the bears piling-in, but other than that, things looking surprisingly rosy