Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[ReddyLeaf]

Very quiet in here today.…….

Everyone's bored to death with the SP action...

watching (and learning from) the algobots making their somewhat predictable morning moves…..

Same same same. I’m happy with my positions 11/18 -230 CSP/CCs, and 11/04 -c225 (dare you to take ‘‘em because I’m 100% stock in that account and need to sell some puts to balance). I might roll out to 11/25 if conditions require.

I did pick up a handful of shares in the $222s just for practice, a little fun, and mini-hedge. Looks like $225 is this week’s target, with low/high pushing 220/230 just to scare out the weak hands. Still have GTC orders in at $5 increments from $189-$216, so this will assure that we don’t break $220 (you’re welcome). When I rashly spend down all my free cash, the SP immediately drops another 5%, so I’m trying to be a bit more discerning.

 

[Yoona]

watching (and learning from) the algobots making their somewhat predictable morning moves

as of this morning,

• sp retraced to 50% of today's Hi/Lo
• then, it went to the 50% of the 10am MMD from 229 to 222.8
• then, it went to today's fib 61.8%, as expected

what does this mean to me? if i had 1000 shares, this was an easy quick $4,000 profit - just watch the price action and predict where the bots are going... they are going to the fibs

View attachment 869496

if i am right, we'll see 224.85 this afternoon

if not,

 

[UltradoomY]

Same same same. I’m happy with my positions 11/18 -230 CSP/CCs, and 11/04 -c225 (dare you to take ‘‘em because I’m 100% stock in that account and need to sell some puts to balance). I might roll out to 11/25 if conditions require.

I did pick up a handful of shares in the $222s just for practice, a little fun, and mini-hedge. Looks like $225 is this week’s target, with low/high pushing 220/230 just to scare out the weak hands. Still have GTC orders in at $5 increments from $189-$216, so this will assure that we don’t break $220 (you’re welcome). When I rashly spend down all my free cash, the SP immediately drops another 5%, so I’m trying to be a bit more discerning.

NOTHNG is in this weeks target yet.... We have to wait for the FED on Wednesday at around 2pm for the target to show itself.

I will be playing the FED this week as I did last month.
There is a clear algo reaction from it and I profited well last time (of course past results, not advice, etc.) but the market dumps on the release and then rises on the speech.

Good luck to all!

 

[MikeC]

Rolled a 11/18 -p245 in and down to 11/4 -p235 and offset the difference with 5x 11/4 -c240.

Also rolled an 11/18 -p255 in to 11/4 -p260, this one is to offset the inevitable SP jump now that I finally cracked and sold CCs - and of course I see we're green almost immediately after. But still not expecting any huge moves until FOMC on Wednesday.

 

[intelligator]

if i am right, we'll see 224.85 this afternoon

if not,

I am assuming you chose today's MMD as one point. When setting up Fib, are you using the previous day close as the other?

 

[BornToFly]

I day traded stock today. Sold shares near the open and bought back during the drop. Then bought new ones during the MMD at 224. Sold 2/3 on the way back up. Still holding the last 1/3. Made good money. I followed the Zoom call with Dan Shapiro today (although that didn't change my trading at all), but he keeps saying that TSLA setup is looking really good for a break-out, possibly tomorrow. I will close some of my -C206 Jan 2024 CC tomorrow if TSLA goes above 234ish. I don't want to close my protective Puts until after I see what happens with the Fed on Wednesday.

Edit: Forgot one of the trades when I wrote it the first time.

 

[Yoona]

I am assuming you chose today's MMD as one point. When setting up Fib, are you using the previous day close as the other?

i had 2 sets of fibs

the 1st set was today's Hi-Lo; i automated that so i don't have to adjust the 2 edges (0%, 100%) throughout the day:

Auto Fib (Fibonacci) Levels Indicator for ThinkorSwim - useThinkScript Community

Fibonacci retracements use horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before it continues in the original direction. These levels are created by drawing a trendline between two extreme points and then dividing the vertical distance by the key...

usethinkscript.com

the 2nd set was manually plotted from 228.98 to 221.94 MMD as anchor points (this was the first long directional move of the day that had momentum/force)

i forgot to add a 3rd set, and this is the previous day's Hi/Lo; the 0% or 100% may act as today's res/supp

complete playlist (just lesson 1 alone is already an eye-opener):

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFAKby4qxtHVXUxudppWUtGrsqHZZiRV_

 

[Yoona]

tsla hovering near my self-prophesied 223 again

TSLA 3yr-1m :
View attachment 865004

today's Close=227.54

it's 24 consecutive months that the monthly Close > 223, plotting from the original 5:1 split

TSLA 3yr-1m :

 

[mb300sd]

Liking the flat days. Just collect theta

 

[BornToFly]

I should add that during the Zoom session I mentioned the Wednesday Fed events as a potential block to any big moves tomorrow. Dan doesn't think it is a big issue at this point (I'm not sure I agree). But if the markets are kind of flat tomorrow, and they like the Fed news Wednesday, I'm expecting TSLA to breakout after.

 

[dl003]

I should add that during the Zoom session I mentioned the Wednesday Fed events as a potential block to any big moves tomorrow. Dan doesn't think it is a big issue at this point (I'm not sure I agree). But if the markets are kind of flat tomorrow, and they like the Fed news Wednesday, I'm expecting TSLA to breakout after.

It's too early. I don't think the Fed is going to give the market any reason to celebrate, especially after a 40 point SPY rally in 3 weeks.
More importantly, TSLA can't just break out. It is way too early to begin a sustained rally - Q4 P&D is still 2 months away. Check out the point of origin for breakouts this year - all occurred within the last month of the quarter. Says TSLA breaks out now, what if Q4 P&D disappoints? If TSLA breaks out now, what is it going to do between now and the end of December?
Wave 2 simply requires more time than 3 days. If TSLA breaks out now, I'll be very worried as it will be just a quick, corrective rally within a bigger downtrend. It'll probably peak @ 250 - 260 before crashing further - this time targeting 160 in short order.

 

[Yoona]

It's too early. I don't think the Fed is going to give the market any reason to celebrate, especially after a 40 point SPY rally in 3 weeks.
More importantly, TSLA can't just break out. It is way too early to begin a sustained rally - Q4 P&D is still 2 months away. Check out the point of origin for breakouts this year - all occurred within the last month of the quarter. Says TSLA breaks out now, what if Q4 P&D disappoints? If TSLA breaks out now, what is it going to do between now and the end of December?
Wave 2 simply requires more time than 3 days. If TSLA breaks out now, I'll be very worried as it will be just a quick, corrective rally within a bigger downtrend. It'll probably peak @ 250 - 260 before crashing further - this time targeting 160 in short order.
View attachment 869633

yeyyyy for my -c250!

 

[intelligator]

Here's some more stare and compare material Looking at pricing based on past Friday close for this week and today, 220-235 is setting up nicely, with some interest at 240, 250. We are barely gamma positive, in a holding pattern until Wednesday afternoon, I suppose.

 

[BornToFly]

It's too early. I don't think the Fed is going to give the market any reason to celebrate, especially after a 40 point SPY rally in 3 weeks.
More importantly, TSLA can't just break out. It is way too early to begin a sustained rally - Q4 P&D is still 2 months away. Check out the point of origin for breakouts this year - all occurred within the last month of the quarter. Says TSLA breaks out now, what if Q4 P&D disappoints? If TSLA breaks out now, what is it going to do between now and the end of December?
Wave 2 simply requires more time than 3 days. If TSLA breaks out now, I'll be very worried as it will be just a quick, corrective rally within a bigger downtrend. It'll probably peak @ 250 - 260 before crashing further - this time targeting 160 in short order.
View attachment 869633

Someone posted this on Twitter:

"The S&P is back to its September 19 level. $TSLA at $228 is still some 27% below it price on that day at $309."

If that is correct, I definitely think we could run and stay up.

Edit: Many must know at this point that we are two months away from betting a record Q3 by >30% more deliveries.

 

[dl003]

Someone posted this on Twitter:

"The S&P is back to its September 19 level. $TSLA at $228 is still some 27% below it price on that day at $309."

If that is correct, I definitely think we could run and stay up.

Edit: Many must know at this point that we are two months away from betting a record Q3 by >30% more deliveries.

Just like many *knew* Q3 P&D was going to be 365k+ and look where we are today. Theres a reason why we are @ 227 and not 270. Market only remembers what happened recently. Until we see numbers handily beating estimates, including the elusive 30% gross margin, TSLA is just another tech stock with 66 PE - the kind that doesnt do well in a bear market. You dont have to look any further than the last wave 1, going from 198 to 233 - 35 points. Now look at the wave 1 in early June, from 207 to 263 - 56 points. The chart tells us everything we need to know about market sentiment. I do believe there is huge demand for shares here around 200 and I think TSLA should be higher if one takes a hollistic view at the fundamentals. There are times for celebration and times to be defensive. Now is one if those times when we need to protect our account because its no longer a risk on market.

 

[BornToFly]

I found this summary helpful for traders like us. I watch at 1.2X.

Edit: If posting this is not ok, Mods please delete.

 

[dl003]

Take a look at the last 2 significant bounces we had. At the beginning of each, we had a wave 1/A (green) followed by a 2/B (red). Look at how long each wave 2/B took. They took quite a bit of time before wave 3/C began because we're looking at major wave sequences. There's no way in hell the drop from 233 to 216 was it so buckle up. If we shoot up from here, I'll be very very concerned as that will be just a short squeeze which won't last and will trigger massive selling afterward. If you think I sound bearish now, you don't want to hear my bearish view. Also look at how small this last wave 1/A is compared to the last 2. This is alarming because the length of the entire sequence more or less corresponds to the length of wave 1. We can still have a nice year end runup with an outsized wave 3, triggered by an 'epic' Q4 P&D report but that needs to be proven first. The only way we're breaking out of this range right now is the possibility of wave 1 not completed yet. I find this unlikely as a double diversion (downward red arrows on the RSI and MACD charts) on the hourly timeframe was developed in last Wednesday morning @ 233. That's when I knew 233 was the top of wave 1, even before the quick drop to 225 and subsequently 216. Look at the last 2 wave 1/A. Double diversion at the peak, signaling exhausted momentum. I don't like the fact that we only bounced 35 points before calling it a day and I hope some good fundamental news coming out soon will help us hang around this area till December FOMO kicks in. In the event the Fed does the unthinkable and only raises by 50 bps, I can see us breaking out to 240-250 to truly complete wave 1. That'll be the uber bullish case.

Market hasn't crashed like I expected but we still have 2 CPI reports, 2 job reports and 2 FOMC meetings on tap before the year is over.

 

[WattsHappening]

Take a look at the last 2 significant bounces we had. At the beginning of each, we had a wave 1/A followed by a 2/B. Look at how long each wave 2/B took. They took quite a bit of time before wave 3/C began because we're looking at major wave sequences. There's no way in hell the drop from 233 to 216 was it so buckle up. If we shoot up from here, I'll be very very concerned as that will be just a short squeeze which won't last and will trigger massive selling afterward. If you think I sound bearish now, you don't want to hear my bearish view. Also look at how small this last wave 1/A is compared to the last 2. This is alarming because the length of the entire sequence more or less corresponds to the length of wave 1. We can still have a nice year end runup with an outsized wave 3, triggered by an 'epic' Q4 P&D report but that needs to be proven first. The only way we're breaking out of this range right now is the possibility of wave 1 not completed yet. I find this unlikely as a double diversion on the hourly timeframe was developed in last Wednesday morning @ 233. That's when I knew 233 was the top of wave 1, even before the quick drop to 225 and subsequently 216. Look at the last 2 wave 1/A. Double diversion at the peak, signaling exhausted momentum. I don't like the fact that we only bounced 35 points before calling it a day and I hope some good fundamental news coming out soon will help us hang around this area till December FOMO kicks in.

Market hasn't crashed like I expected but we still have 2 CPI reports, 2 job reports, and 2 FOMC meeting on tap before the year is over.
View attachment 869676

We need a 'dazed and confused' reaction.

I feel like I felt listening to the AI presentation -- totally inadequate.

 

[dl003]

We need a 'dazed and confused' reaction.

I feel like I felt listening to the AI presentation -- totally inadequate.

good thing about TA is couple hours of googling should help explain a lot.

 

[BornToFly]

Take a look at the last 2 significant bounces we had. At the beginning of each, we had a wave 1/A (green) followed by a 2/B (red). Look at how long each wave 2/B took. They took quite a bit of time before wave 3/C began because we're looking at major wave sequences. There's no way in hell the drop from 233 to 216 was it so buckle up. If we shoot up from here, I'll be very very concerned as that will be just a short squeeze which won't last and will trigger massive selling afterward. If you think I sound bearish now, you don't want to hear my bearish view. Also look at how small this last wave 1/A is compared to the last 2. This is alarming because the length of the entire sequence more or less corresponds to the length of wave 1. We can still have a nice year end runup with an outsized wave 3, triggered by an 'epic' Q4 P&D report but that needs to be proven first. The only way we're breaking out of this range right now is the possibility of wave 1 not completed yet. I find this unlikely as a double diversion (downward red arrows on the RSI and MACD charts) on the hourly timeframe was developed in last Wednesday morning @ 233. That's when I knew 233 was the top of wave 1, even before the quick drop to 225 and subsequently 216. Look at the last 2 wave 1/A. Double diversion at the peak, signaling exhausted momentum. I don't like the fact that we only bounced 35 points before calling it a day and I hope some good fundamental news coming out soon will help us hang around this area till December FOMO kicks in. In the event the Fed does the unthinkable and only raises by 50 bps, I can see us breaking out to 240-250 to truly complete wave 1. That'll be the uber bullish case.

Market hasn't crashed like I expected but we still have 2 CPI reports, 2 job reports and 2 FOMC meetings on tap before the year is over.
View attachment 869676

Thank you for taking the time to write this. If you end up being wrong - Beer on me. If you right, someone else has to buy because I won't have any money....