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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Max pain next week is 135 and premium for 135 calls is at ~.60. I'll wait to sell anything until we either move up, or expectations reset on Monday. I do have a 120 call and put. If we rise above 131 I start to lose on the trade, but win on Feb long calls.
Looking for that one as well, but I think we will need TSLA to go green for a decent premium of +1.
 
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Wondering whether I should buy back C125 or let it expire. I'm going to let C150 and my puts expire.

BTW, since Monday is a holiday, not sure whether to sell next week options today or wait for Tuesday ...
Difficult decision. Tuesday could be an up day after todays action (remember China price cut), but on the other hand theta will do its thing as well.
 
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Reminder if anyone is looking to play the week of earnings -

IV will continue to increase during the week up until the day of earnings and crash the next day.

So if you sell a CC on Monday and the stock stays flat - the IV rise will make rise either way. If the price does rise, the CC will increase even faster.

This is not for next week but the week of the 27th.
Just a heads up!

I personally am waiting to write anything till Tuesday - with the long holiday, anything can happen.
(not advice)
 
Reminder if anyone is looking to play the week of earnings -

IV will continue to increase during the week up until the day of earnings and crash the next day.

So if you sell a CC on Monday and the stock stays flat - the IV rise will make rise either way. If the price does rise, the CC will increase even faster.

This is not for next week but the week of the 27th.
Just a heads up!

I personally am waiting to write anything till Tuesday - with the long holiday, anything can happen.
(not advice)
I still think it's better to sell calls over the weekend. I don't know what positive news we are expecting over the weekend but earnings in focus for the next two weeks I struggle to see us going anywhere. I might regret it but I'm going to let Theta do its thing.

Sold a bunch of 130C for next week for 1.31. Also sold some Feb 23 100 puts for 3.80

120 close? QQQ went green but TSLA went the other way. Or do we close right around 122/123?
 
So if you sell a CC on Monday and the stock stays flat - the IV rise will make rise either way. If the price does rise, the CC will increase even faster.

Depends on how much IV raises - because theta is still working to reduce the premium.

1673637883652.png
 
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Depends on how much IV raises - because theta is still working to reduce the premium.

View attachment 895359
I am referencing the WEEK OF EARNINGS - meaning Monday the 23rd STO
Not today or Tuesday.

We have seen it happen time and time again - that's why I said reminder - if you sell on Monday and it stays flat or goes up you lose out.

If you sell today you may be ok, but a possible run up is more likely and you are worse off.
 
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I am referencing the WEEK OF EARNINGS - meaning Monday the 23rd STO
Not today or Tuesday.

We have seen it happen time and time again - that's why I said reminder - if you sell on Monday and it stays flat or goes up you lose out.

If you sell today you may be ok, but a possible run up is more likely and you are worse off.
Sorry, a little confusing. Are you comparing selling on Monday 23rd vs Wednesday before close ? Either way, theta decay still applicable. Ofcourse, SP staying flat between Monday and Wednesday is unusual, anyway.

But your other point is very valid. IV will continue to raise, way past 100% and then suddenly drop below 60% after ER.


1673639628913.png
 
Sorry, a little confusing. Are you comparing selling on Monday 23rd vs Wednesday before close ? Either way, theta decay still applicable. Ofcourse, SP staying flat between Monday and Wednesday is unusual, anyway.

But your other point is very valid. IV will continue to raise, way past 100% and then suddenly drop below 60% after ER.


View attachment 895375
I didn't mean to be snarky or confusing - I'm always a little off - my bad.

Also- it gets weird the closer to the money on earnings week you are and if the underlying is rising.

We have done this enough that you will see a lot of - I wish I wouldn't have sold my "X" on Monday and waited for Wednesday kinda stuff.

Maybe less so this time around since everyone is still shell shocked.

Edit - I'm going to be an even bigger silly goose now - just STO 01/27 $150 CC's for $1 each!
Come and take 'EM!!!!
 
I'm also torn about selling CC for next week before the close today, or waiting until Tuesday. SP may go higher Tuesday when people have more time to run the numbers and realize that Margins will probably come down very little despite the price drops.

I paid $51990 for my Y in 2021, and Gross Margins were 30.5% that quarter. Now they have more than 2X the production, which lowers costs and balances some commodity price increases + IRA gives Tesla money for battery pack production. Furthermore, in Q3 2022 they were still delivering orders from 2021 (with 2021 pricing), so 2022 margins were largely achieved with 2021 pricing, and much higher Alu and Steel prices than we have now, and no IRA battery credit.
 
I didn't mean to be snarky or confusing - I'm always a little off - my bad.

Also- it gets weird the closer to the money on earnings week you are and if the underlying is rising.

We have done this enough that you will see a lot of - I wish I wouldn't have sold my "X" on Monday and waited for Wednesday kinda stuff.

Maybe less so this time around since everyone is still shell shocked.

Edit - I'm going to be an even bigger silly goose now - just STO 01/27 $150 CC's for $1 each!
Come and take 'EM!!!!
Is this situation better to BTO on Monday, STC on Wednesday and then STO on Wednesday to anticipate the change you are anticipating? Edit to correct order of operations
 
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Well, if you're telling me, that Tesla would cut 20% off pricing on and OPEX Friday with Max Pain at 120 and the stock closes above...

That is flipping bullish!!!

Edit: I'm not selling -c130's at this price, it's what I closed them for yesterday, and I think SP has a lot more chance of taking off from here than it had this time yesterday, I wait
 
Watching the brief morning dip reverse, closed at $2.33 for a $5.91 profit since Monday. Delaying STO to hopefully beat the available ~$1.75 simultaneous roll to 1/20 $116, and may go to $120+. Leaving 1/20 $142 CCs in place.
At ~3:15pm EST, STO 1/20 $120 CC at $4.65 for a one-week roll netting $2.32 in premium and $4.00 in strike improvement.

SP blew right through the supposed $120 call wall at noon and never looked back!
 
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I logged into Fidelity and saw a message that after today they are increasing the Margin requirement for TSLA from 40% to 50%. This will cause a margin call for me next week. 🤬🤬🤬

What brokerages still have 40% requirement?
They adjust it based on your concentration. For example, mine at E*TRADE went from 40% to 50% to 60%, and then once I cleared things out and added some cash it went back to 40% then up to 50%, and back down to 40%. (And that is all in the last two weeks.)
 
They adjust it based on your concentration. For example, mine at E*TRADE went from 40% to 50% to 60%, and then once I cleared things out and added some cash it went back to 40% then up to 50%, and back down to 40%. (And that is all in the last two weeks.)
I've had the same concentration for years, and Fidelity hasn't changed above 40% in years. I do have a TD Ameritrade account I don't use. I could see what they have and transfer everything to them.