Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Criscmt]

Isn’t it too late to be thinking about capitulation- when Tesla has already been decapitated- down 70% in one year

Also read is inflation winding down- maybe one more.25 point interest hike in feb and then done

Either just HODL or buy more when there is blood on the streets

I don't think Musk is predicting anything, he's just pointing out the absurdity of the FED's current path based on historical precedence. I see no reason for recession or market collapse. Those continually predicting it are pushing their own agenda - as are 99% of all media commentators/YouTubers/influencers... always bear that in mind

Larry Summers, Mohammed El Erian, Ray Dalio, @Wifeyalpha are some of the sources whose views led me into posting on TMC in March, April of 2022 about the huge downward risk to the market. I am in agreement with their reasoning even now, and that means FFR going to 5-6% and staying there for a while, unless labor market cracks fast. Remember, inflation and unemployment are the only two things they care about.

China reopening post-covid is inflationary, IMO, like how post-covid was inflationary in US, especially the labor factor.

Only positive, in the last few days, Larry Summers started saying the Fed is closer to the end.

My view has been and still now is that, for the trillions of money that's pumped into the system, it takes suppressed asset prices for a while to change people's behavior on spending, motivation to work. If Fed eases now, I am afraid inflation will be back with a vengeance. Sure, it is going down, but it must go down to at least 3% and not show any signs of going up. Hopefully, automation, robotics, technology and productivity enhancing technologies will make rapid progress to offset inflationary factors like labor demographics in US, China and elsewhere.

@Criscmt

During a bear market, some stocks considered as risky assets like crypto and growth stocks can be sold off and bottom out before the non risky assets.

A lot of smart money as been leaving value secure ETFs in the last week and growing back into crypto Bitcoin Ethereum and back into QQQ more volatile risk on assets. You can see NFLX bottomed out couple months ago and growing back, same thing for META. The same thing could have happened to TSLA. Even if the SPY crashes another 20% for deep recession cyclic deleveraging reasons from people unable to afford their mortgages if the raise hikes continue for a while, it doesn’t necessarily mean all the stocks who already went down need to bottom more. Maybe it will go further down ir maybe we have see the bottom, nobody knows but the time to buy massive quantity of OTM puts was 1 year ago.

I wasn't suggesting buying TSLA puts. I was giving LVHM as an example for a reason.
That said, I haven't explicitly ruled out TSLA puts either. There could be some in whose case TSLA LEAP puts might make sense even here. Maybe they have a payment coming next year, and TSLA going to $60 will be too stressful to handle.
I REALLY hope TSLA bottomed, going by the price action the day after China price cuts, and day after US price cuts, we might have, unless there's some serious negative surprise in Q4 earnings call, or macro doesn't go to a level which warrants one more round of big price cuts by Tesla.

I sense the view in the above replies that we are close to bottom on macro front.
IMHO, this is too optimistic, similar to the optimism (not to same degree, but a bit less) in the replies to my posts in March, April 2022.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Larry Summers, Mohammed El Erian, Ray Dalio, @Wifeyalpha are some of the sources whose views led me into posting on TMC in March, April of 2022 about the huge downward risk to the market. I am in agreement with their reasoning even now, and that means FFR going to 5-6% and staying there for a while, unless labor market cracks fast. Remember, inflation and unemployment are the only two things they care about.

China reopening post-covid is inflationary, IMO, like how post-covid was inflationary in US, especially the labor factor.

Only positive, in the last few days, Larry Summers started saying the Fed is closer to the end.

My view has been and still now is that, for the trillions of money that's pumped into the system, it takes suppressed asset prices for a while to change people's behavior on spending, motivation to work. If Fed eases now, I am afraid inflation will be back with a vengeance. Sure, it is going down, but it must go down to at least 3% and not show any signs of going up. Hopefully, automation, robotics, technology and productivity enhancing technologies will make rapid progress to offset inflationary factors like labor demographics in US, China and elsewhere.

I wasn't suggesting buying TSLA puts. I was giving LVHM as an example for a reason.
That said, I haven't explicitly ruled out TSLA puts either. There could be some in whose case TSLA LEAP puts might make sense even here. Maybe they have a payment coming next year, and TSLA going to $60 will be too stressful to handle.
I REALLY hope TSLA bottomed, going by the price action the day after China price cuts, and day after US price cuts, we might have, unless there's some serious negative surprise in Q4 earnings call, or macro doesn't go to a level which warrants one more round of big price cuts by Tesla.

I sense the view in the above replies that we are close to bottom on macro front.
IMHO, this is too optimistic, similar to the optimism (not to same degree, but a bit less) in the replies to my posts in March, April 2022.

We are close to a bottom in the Nasdaq that’s for sure.
Every strong earnings and profitable companies got beat down over 50-60% and started their climb back.
It doesn’t mean macro has bottomed out but not all the companies bottom out at the same time and we might be on our way back up for Nasdaq

 

[JustMe]

We are close to a bottom in the Nasdaq that’s for sure.
Every strong earnings and profitable companies got beat down over 50-60% and started their climb back.
It doesn’t mean macro has bottomed out but not all the companies bottom out at the same time and we might be on our way back up for Nasdaq

Just as the market tends to sell off ahead of a recession, the market tends to recover first as well, because it is forward looking.

 

[Criscmt]

(Different topic than my last one)

I am looking for Tax professional (in US) who you found, or heard to be good with filing returns when many options (LEAPS) selling, buying, exercising is involved.
It's turning out hard to find one who is comfortable with LEAPS, and large amount of options. The ones I came across said they have dealt with options which expired the same year.
Would REALLY appreciate help on this.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Quick note: Don’t always believe that $135 MaxPain number, it’s been suspect before, and it could be now. Look at the excess number of calls on everything $125 and above, except $133.33 (which is $400 pre-split, so it’s been open and covered a LONG time). There are 13,000 more calls than puts at $125, so absent other factors, I’d say the MMs have the SP exactly where they want it: above 120 and below 125. We will probably see the SP run up towards 125, maybe even a bit above, just to shake out some week hands, then maybe a drop back to near 120. Who knows? Last week, I was worried about the Jan monthly being uncertain and volatile, but now I think it’s just another week, just the one before earnings. The bear market still seems intact and this past two weeks could just be a bear flag. I want to be wrong, maybe I’ll think something different on Tuesday.

 

[JustMe]

Quick note: Don’t always believe that $135 MaxPain number, it’s been suspect before, and it could be now. Look at the excess number of calls on everything $125 and above, except $133.33 (which is $400 pre-split, so it’s been open and covered a LONG time). There are 13,000 more calls than puts at $125, so absent other factors, I’d say the MMs have the SP exactly where they want it: above 120 and below 125. We will probably see the SP run up towards 125, maybe even a bit above, just to shake out some week hands, then maybe a drop back to near 120. Who knows? Last week, I was worried about the Jan monthly being uncertain and volatile, but now I think it’s just another week, just the one before earnings. The bear market still seems intact and this past two weeks could just be a bear flag. I want to be wrong, maybe I’ll think something different on Tuesday.

Good points.

I will add that there will probably be delayed reactions to the price drops as fund managers crunched numbers over the long weekend and adjust their price targets. I don’t think we will see many upward revisions. For example Gary Black, applauded the move but trimmed his 1year price target from $400 to $370. Lower price targets could be a short-term drag on the share price, but many are calling this a bold power move from the market leader.

In short, I predict we will trade between $100 and $140 this week. Not advice!

 

[Jim Holder]

CRAP!!!!

I logged into Fidelity and saw a message that after today they are increasing the Margin requirement for TSLA from 40% to 50%. This will cause a margin call for me next week.

What brokerages still have 40% requirement?

I’m with TD Ameritrade and since I’m concentrated in TSLA, if I keep my maintenance req. above 50% they lower the requirements to 40% for margin calculations. If I dip below 50% the margin req flies up to 50%.

If I were you I’d call TD a second time and ask to speak to the margin risk team (and be insistent..the front line guy might try to push you off by saying he can help you…just ask again politely to be connected to the margin risk team queue.)

I have found lots of times the front line guys shoot from the hip on more complicated margin questions and don’t really have accurate information. Been burnt a few times because of that until I learned to ask to be connected with the margin risk team. Even then, if it is a very serious question involving thousands of dollars, I would call back a second time and go through the whole process and speak to the margin risk team and double-confirm that the information I got was accurate (once it wasn’t and it was good I called).

Good luck!

 

[elasalle]

Larry Summers, Mohammed El Erian, Ray Dalio, @Wifeyalpha are some of the sources whose views led me into posting on TMC in March, April of 2022 about the huge downward risk to the market. I am in agreement with their reasoning even now, and that means FFR going to 5-6% and staying there for a while, unless labor market cracks fast. Remember, inflation and unemployment are the only two things they care about.

China reopening post-covid is inflationary, IMO, like how post-covid was inflationary in US, especially the labor factor.

Only positive, in the last few days, Larry Summers started saying the Fed is closer to the end.

My view has been and still now is that, for the trillions of money that's pumped into the system, it takes suppressed asset prices for a while to change people's behavior on spending, motivation to work. If Fed eases now, I am afraid inflation will be back with a vengeance. Sure, it is going down, but it must go down to at least 3% and not show any signs of going up. Hopefully, automation, robotics, technology and productivity enhancing technologies will make rapid progress to offset inflationary factors like labor demographics in US, China and elsewhere.

I wasn't suggesting buying TSLA puts. I was giving LVHM as an example for a reason.
That said, I haven't explicitly ruled out TSLA puts either. There could be some in whose case TSLA LEAP puts might make sense even here. Maybe they have a payment coming next year, and TSLA going to $60 will be too stressful to handle.
I REALLY hope TSLA bottomed, going by the price action the day after China price cuts, and day after US price cuts, we might have, unless there's some serious negative surprise in Q4 earnings call, or macro doesn't go to a level which warrants one more round of big price cuts by Tesla.

I sense the view in the above replies that we are close to bottom on macro front.
IMHO, this is too optimistic, similar to the optimism (not to same degree, but a bit less) in the replies to my posts in March, April 2022.

Not sure if China reopening is inflationary or deflationary though…looks inflationary because demand for gas etc increases but they produce lots of goods for the whole world and increase supply as well . If worlds 2nd biggest economy is functioning properly- I think that’s a good thing

For gas they likely supplement by buying Russian at low prices anyway

+ BTC crossed 20K - first time since Nov. cheers!!

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614692350319525892

 

[OrthoSurg]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614692350319525892

If SPY bounces at $390? Or if it breaks through $400?

 

[JustMe]

If SPY bounces at $390? Or if it breaks through $400?

I guess we will know after it happens, as usual

 

[EVNow]

If SPY bounces at $390? Or if it breaks through $400?

Depends more on ER than SPY, IMO.

 

[MrMoo]

Depends more on ER than SPY, IMO.

100% This.

In about 1 week we'll know if we fall to double digits, stay 100's or go back to 200's.

Charts and macro won't do too much.

 

[intelligator]

This is where we sit for the 20th (based on pricing data from the 13th). Gamma flip is 122 , call and put exposure is about even. Ideally I can close out the -130/+135 BCS Tuesday during the MMD, get some BPS pricing, wait for Wednesday to form the weekly IC, half at a time.

 

[EVNow]

This is where we sit for the 20th (based on pricing data from the 13th). Gamma flip is 122 , call and put exposure is about even. Ideally I can close out the -130/+135 BCS Tuesday during the MMD, get some BPS pricing, wait for Wednesday to form the weekly IC, half at a time.

View attachment 896571

I'll try to sell -c140/c145 and p100/-p105. With no big news, should follow macros, but ....

 

[UltradoomY]

STO more 01/27 - $150CC's for $1.60 each - I got $1 for these on Friday.

Will look for a BPS tomorrow or if we get a good MMD around $115/$105 - looking for $1 each there too.

 

[Max Plaid]

Playing chicken with the c130 wall: STO 26x -c130 @$3.1

Set that up before market open, realised it needed ~$128.50 to trigger, but was patient and waited

Effectively a double-dip as I sold 35x of these last week for the same price and bought them back @$1.35

 

[BornToFly]

Follow up on my Fidelity margin situation after they raised the Margin requirement on shares from 40% to 50%.

I BTC April 125 Puts @ $16.5 after we started to get a red candle 5 minutes after the open. I couldn't risk the market reversing the open and it costing me more. Pretty angry that they forced me to lose money by raising the margin requirement. Now I have a margin buffer and can bring in more money from a home equity loan if we go lower. Without closing the Puts the home equity loan would not have been enough if the SP drops closer to 100 after earnings. Once I get the cash from selling my plane (in a month or two), I will have plenty of cash/margin, and can sell new Puts to hopefully get that $16.5 back.

 

[BornToFly]

I STO CCs ranging from 141 to 145 strikes for Friday. I think I sold too early, and those strikes might not be high enough....

 

[rikkert]

STO 10x Jan27'23 160 CC @ 0.95
(planning to close before earnings)