SpeedyEddy
Active Member
same, and if we go over 150, then it is really to consider, moving to -p a bit. Stil counting on a fallback a bit beyond previous ultra-low, to confirm biggest Fib level (from the top) @ $97.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I would agree if we were still priced to perfection (i.e. $300+ share price) but right now we have a P/E TTM of 36 and going down in a week if the share price stays the same or goes to around $150 with earnings.
The FCF is still growing ang with price drops we can still grow 40-50% in a recession.
Seems like a good place to add to value / growth. That said - if the market drops another 20%, I can see TSLA hitting $90's but no lower since the enterprise value is too high around there with cash on hand, and earnings growing due to the IRA and Energy adding to the earnings statement materially in FY 2023.
In short - I like our chances in this proposed scenario and don't plan to hedge further. (not advice of course)
dc_h
Active Member
Aaargh. I was going over different accounts this morning, and realized I had a brain fart in my mom's IRA yesterday. Instead of selling CC on 1/3 of her shares, I did almost all of them. 145CC for Friday. At least the Strike is pretty high. I'm probably going to have to roll to earnings week. If earnings are good, I could see us getting back to 200 faster than I can roll....
corduroy
Active Member
I added some cheap insurance puts today. I hope I'm proven wrong and don't need these, but I'm not trusting this rise will hold.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Rolled my -c130 1/20 one /c131 1/27 to 135 1/27
(also buying some shares@ 134 (that I thought was the dip for today)
(also buying some shares@ 134 (that I thought was the dip for today)
TSLA not rallying with the QQQ the last 20 minutes. I think 145 is going to be safe for Friday....
dc_h
Active Member
Hard to believe a month ago we were at 150 and I was thinking it can't get lower. Now I'm relieved we might rally back to 150. I'm waiting to roll 135, 138 and 140 CC's and will likely sell more 140 calls for Friday. No telling what happens after earnings, but I think all the bad news is baked in and all the stop loss sales have been harvested. The world will continue to generate headlines of doom, but I think we should fall up from here.
Seems like 133-135 is the magnet for this week based on the maxpain. It's interesting that maxpain was 133 yesterday and now 131.
In the meanwhile, TSLA filled the gap. SPY should not close lower than yesterday otherwise, the marco might against us in the next couple of days.
Hard reject by 137. I think market has topped, at least for now (2 weeks).
We may make new lows now, but doesn't mean we will. ER gonna decide. If we make new lows, I expect that to be THE bottom in TSLA. 85-97.
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Still holding 1/20 -c130/+135 BCS... would like to avoid rolling up and out with risk of earnings surge. Close the spread at smaller loss now? Also looking at rolling up same expiry. Thoughts on what we are seeing?
I doubt we get much ahead of Max-Pain this week, maybe $5, and expect next week’s M-P to change a good bit Fri/Mon (have 1/20 $142 which I’m mostly comfortable with). I pretty much accept @Yoona charts showing SP generally ends the week within $5 of Max-Pain — higher when SP in an uptrend, and lower when the opposite.
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a. "May", not "will"
b. Too close to ER, upside still greater than downside
c. Targets are for risk management. If you have no risks, aka no margin, then you don't need to manage.
I think the market isn't as interested in the print for earnings - it is going to be more interested in the forward looking statements and what they say about the pricing strategy is for guidance.
We already know they are going to guide for +/- 50% for the full year on production. The market wants to know how that translates to earnings and if they announce a buy back with FCF.
Only wild cards for me on the earnings call (now that investors day is a thing) are FSD revenue recognition and Tesla Energy.
Just my opinion but that's the make / break for then next 40 days as the "investors" day is shortly after.
I am expecting a EPS of $1.34 which I think is in line from additional deliveries, smoothing of the wave and currency exchange moderation from a $250M headwind in Q3.
We could surprise to the upside because of lower commodity costs (which allowed for price drops) which would start a rally IMO.
Earnings impacts that I don't know about are related to ramp at Berlin and Austin which seem to have moderated now that they are ramping but it is an unknown.
I am well positioned to the upside from January 2025 leaps and not currently looking for downside protection (by buying puts) but do have free cash to write new puts if the situation arises.
(not advice, know when to hold em and know when to fold em)
Yes, but if someone hedges this morning according to my plan given last week, they're golden now. Even if ER is good, we won't break 170 next week. If ER is problematic, you're covered. My plan was to buy 120/100P and sell 170C 2 weeks out near 140.
SebastienBonny
Member
Closed 140 CC for 3.18. About 25% profit, but this initialy was a 1.3ish sold contract rolled to 4.20ish.
Still a 200 loss, so looking for a reopen if we recover today or later this week.
Also consider opening 2x 150 CC for next week if it hits 2+ again.
Still a 200 loss, so looking for a reopen if we recover today or later this week.
Also consider opening 2x 150 CC for next week if it hits 2+ again.
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So you are
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