-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
llirk
Member
What's the consensus on how to deal with leaps that are out of the money but now approaching expiration in June and September? Writing covered calls below the strike can make some money back but also end up putting you in a naked call position should the stock run between the strikes.
I've considered rolling out to buy more time, but figured I'd ask the group. Any non advice?
I've considered rolling out to buy more time, but figured I'd ask the group. Any non advice?
It can be anywhere from 140 - 102.
Here are some of the key resistance that I've used to call intraday / intraweek top
15m 200 EMA at 127. Failed 1st try. 2nd try broken.
1h 200 EMA at 137. Failed 1st try. 2nd try broken.
Now we are at an important junction:
157 is the 0.618 all time retracement. 160 is 200 weekly SMA. 166 is 0.381 retracement of 315-102. So it's going to take a lot of momentum to breakout from this zone, which is why we're flagging.
Last and baddest is 180, 200 weekly EMA. The train will stop here if not sooner (99% chance to leave room for the idealists among us).
Last edited:
If the S and P goes to 3200 like so many are calling for then maybe.
Earnings are the deal now, but they will be over in a couple of weeks.
I got a lot of money in rolling short term T BILLS earning me from 4.5 to 4.9 % and that is state and city tax free. Guaranteed unless the Congress blows up the financial system and then what does it matter anyway? Interest rates are only going up from there in the short term.
Expect more money to go into bonds as we continue and especially once the rally fades.
Update STO 14x 2/3 -p150 @$4.2 -> BTC 2x 2/24 -c130 -> 22x remain. Will chip-away at these by whatever means I find...
Figured an update on some BPS would be interesting after this strong move.
The bulk of the position are -175p / +150p in Jan '25. With the lower leg going OTM, the spread value has narrowed to 14.45 (shares 158). That's about where I would expect it as the half way point is 162.50 and I expect the spread to be valued at 12.50 at that point (equal time value to each side).
The other BPS are -135p/+115p in Jan '25.
Both positions were achieved by rolling 1 or 2 week BPS out to max distance in late December. This sort of rally seemed possible then, but it also seemed like we could keep going to 80 and I really wanted to avoid a short put that could be early assigned.
Anyway - the 135/115 is the one I'm watching most closely. It is fully OTM at this point, and I figure its going to need to get further OTM, before there will be an effective roll that brings the spread closer to the money and closer in time. At some point I'll be looking to roll in to a 1 or 2 week spread that I can then clear up.
For now its about 8.50 on a $20 spread width. Better than the 1/2 ($10) I would expect at the mid point, but not a lot better.
I bring this up partly for my own benefit - I wanted to check in and see what $20 OTM would do for the spread (not a lot). I also wanted to make the observation that spreads really don't work the same as cash secured puts. Not at all. The position might still not be fixable / removable via roll in and up at $180. This 135/115 is giving me an early indication of what its going to take for the 175/150s to resolve.
The bulk of the position are -175p / +150p in Jan '25. With the lower leg going OTM, the spread value has narrowed to 14.45 (shares 158). That's about where I would expect it as the half way point is 162.50 and I expect the spread to be valued at 12.50 at that point (equal time value to each side).
The other BPS are -135p/+115p in Jan '25.
Both positions were achieved by rolling 1 or 2 week BPS out to max distance in late December. This sort of rally seemed possible then, but it also seemed like we could keep going to 80 and I really wanted to avoid a short put that could be early assigned.
Anyway - the 135/115 is the one I'm watching most closely. It is fully OTM at this point, and I figure its going to need to get further OTM, before there will be an effective roll that brings the spread closer to the money and closer in time. At some point I'll be looking to roll in to a 1 or 2 week spread that I can then clear up.
For now its about 8.50 on a $20 spread width. Better than the 1/2 ($10) I would expect at the mid point, but not a lot better.
I bring this up partly for my own benefit - I wanted to check in and see what $20 OTM would do for the spread (not a lot). I also wanted to make the observation that spreads really don't work the same as cash secured puts. Not at all. The position might still not be fixable / removable via roll in and up at $180. This 135/115 is giving me an early indication of what its going to take for the 175/150s to resolve.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Thank you for advice and I am about on the same page, surely the following
1. 150 cross sets 102 as a more solid bottom. (as you called crossing 140 doing so, I think)
2. It is scary to hold on to -CC (but I still do), but I am cutting my losses by daytrading in and out of shares and new -CC for next week too. These double whammies have cut my virtual loss on -cc 137 and 139 already in half today.
3. I am reckoning, a dip before 180 will occur because of macro and am considering (thinking after ER Tesla won't dip as far as NFLX/MSFT and maybe even AAPL/MSFT) trading -c (NOT covered) these shares based on the thought that the market is fighting the FED on expected lower interest rates. The Fed then has no other choice but to be extra hawkish to force their narrative, that inflation is far from over (wanting 2% to be secured) Especially when earnings are too high, not leading to more unemployment, not cooling down economy enough. So, especially when above this PCE tomorrow is too mellow, FED is gonna stop any squeeze next week (FOMC 1st of febr).
So not too sure if $TSLA will fall like the rest. Maybe I will decide to exchange (a part of)- ITM CC TSLA (expiring 1/27) to - ITM CC NFLX/MSFT/SPY (edit: for next week of course) avoiding the risk of ER spoiling.
Tesla is very solid, everybody seems to be convinced now, so a topping out, never looking back is imminent. I have been there before, just holding shares, but this time (after a dip, that I really want to see macro at least) I am planning on -P jun '25 to turbo boost. So at the moment gathering as much shares as I can, not a spare cent left.
Last edited:
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think the big risk now is market (and ofcourse "black swans" that Tesla has every couple of months). Q1 earnings would be the big test for this year - will they get 20%+ AGM like Zack said ? If they do, I think TSLA will shoot up, otherwise drop down.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
And March 1 Investor Day announcements......., would not want to be without shares by then.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
But I've to say - in general investment day, AI day etc haven't been too good for TSLA. I remember TSLA went down by 10% or so after Model Y unveil.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
IV has crashed from about 125% (when I last checked yesterday) to about 80% now.
For next week it is at 67%. Still good .... and may go down to 50% if SP stays flat for a few days.
For comparison, MSFT IV is around 30% ...
For next week it is at 67%. Still good .... and may go down to 50% if SP stays flat for a few days.
For comparison, MSFT IV is around 30% ...
CLK350
Member
Unless it's a Model 2 unveil, ready to ship. China only. (And /or EU)
Sorry not sorry to add to the uncertainty
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Did you buy anything during washout sale period ?
I'm still considering selling TSLA, swapping for something similar for a month and then getting back TSLA to register loss for Tax.
Between now and March 1st would be a good time.
BTW, DSLL says it tracks 1.5x of TSLA only for a day. Its not meant for longer term holding ...
myt-e-s-l-a
Member
Added STO 10x 230203C170 @ $2.60 to complete spread at close.
Last edited:
BPTRX is what tracks TSLA the closest. I bought a little 2 weeks ago and wish I had bought more. My wash timeout period ends around Jan 31 so I'm hoping to be able to start buying back TSLA (lower than today's prices) after the fed meeting Feb 1.
Can someone explain this? Puts seem way too high as it isn't triple witching...
It is a monthly though - which means - weekly and monthly expirations and it has been open for more than 90 days.
Probably a lot of buyers / sellers from the lows in December making bets that have been well hedged already.
Do you think bonds will hold as we retest 3600, heads towards 3200? Or bonds will also slide down with overall market, so should be patient to enter bonds? Rate hikes are almost done and we will hold for foreseeable future.
For the first time in a long time, I'm actually considering buying some bonds 1-3 years maturity... and not necessarily buy the whole dip in tech like TSLA
gabeincal
Active Member
I'm with you. It's always these next great events that turn out to be nothingburgers at best, sometimes like you pointed out, a fair drop and we all stand like what...?! Hence why I'm holding the -135c's for 1/27, which of course has to be mitigated tomorrow, but I'm looking to just even roll them a week at a time for hopefully $1 premium. I believe that we haven't seen the end of this economic downturn, and whilst the stock market is NOT the economy, I can foresee another dip in TSLA before we never come back to 1xx.
I lost so much money last year by closing-out ITM calls and puts, then selling the opposite and have the same happen again, almost on a weekly basis. Took me until March to get my act together and adapt... in every case if I had rolled the position a few weeks, the SP came back and they would have expired worthless
Not advice, if the SP keeps going all the way to ATH without a breather, then maybe just bailing-out now would be best, who knows...
Not advice, if the SP keeps going all the way to ATH without a breather, then maybe just bailing-out now would be best, who knows...
Similar threads
