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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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This CNBC appearance has me thinking Tesla might have some sort of concrete announcement that Elon wants to brag about. Why else would Elon have a live TV interview scheduled for 6 PM when the annual shareholder meeting starts at 4 PM?

I agree. It could be bullish or bearish, hard to know. Is it positive or negative? Could it be health related? That said, there was some serious selling going on today, I wonder if that’s ppl or institutions who know something front-running the news.

Such a difficult spot to find a decent options play that’s not stupid dangerous for conservative folks like me.
 
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Where are you looking to see IV? I've used this chart in the past from Market Chameleon, but you see on Friday it show IV as being very high, but I didn't get the impression this was the case...

View attachment 937881

My brokers trading tool - Street Smart Edge by Schwab.

I can add what ever values to all the options positions that I choose to add for depth and clarity - right now I have -
IV
Theta
Time value left
Bid / Ask / Mid
Delta
O.I.
Volume

I am actually not sure where they calculate the IV but is is at 49 for ATM and gets higher the father away from ATM you go.

I have circled with the highlighter the IV at the top right
Visual IV.jpg
 
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Fortunately my first time in this situation, but I had to sell a fair amount of TSLA stock at a loss (some short term and long term) this year in a normal investment account. Bad situation, but I would like to make the most out of those losses. I know if I make some gains selling other stock later in the year, I can offset that, but does the same apply for just trading options? I would also like to do some Roth IRA conversion and have these losses cover the tax implications, but it seems like there is some sort of $ limit on this. Any advice would be appreciated.
 
There is no way that Elon is going on prime time to talk about resigning from the CEO role at Tesla and this being the topic.

This will likely be more of the A.I. discussion and talks that he has been having with - FOX news, The White House, Congress, literally every interview he has done outside of the bird app advertising interviews over the past month.

Please understand that would be letting CNBC have MNPI and hoping they don't run their mouths about it.

Maybe the interview is to massage the message and do damage control? 🤷‍♂️
 
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Fortunately my first time in this situation, but I had to sell a fair amount of TSLA stock at a loss (some short term and long term) this year in a normal investment account. Bad situation, but I would like to make the most out of those losses. I know if I make some gains selling other stock later in the year, I can offset that, but does the same apply for just trading options? I would also like to do some Roth IRA conversion and have these losses cover the tax implications, but it seems like there is some sort of $ limit on this. Any advice would be appreciated.

Yes, you can offset (or increase) your capital losses with capital gains (or losses) from options.

The Roth conversion is taxed as income and so you’d only be able to offset $3000 of that each year, carrying the rest forward for future years.
 
😆


Here’s the Bingo card:

1) FSD coming this year. I know, I know…but it will. Oh, and depending on local regulatory approval, so it’s not really up to us and not our fault if it’s not allowed in your jurisdiction.

2) FSD will unlock billions of dollars for Tesla, more value than selling the car itself by an order of magnitude.

3) We aren’t focused on margins right now, we are solely focused on market penetration.

4) While I’ll be spending more time at Tesla over the next few months, I’ll be leaving most day-to-day management in the capable hands of Zack and others. I’ll still be Technoking but as Tesla has matured, I am pleased by where it’s at. And as the past year demonstrated, Tesla can function without me there every day.

5) The share price is too high

6) Stay off of margin in the current financial uncertain environment

7) We will get through this and be stronger for it.
There is no way that Elon is going on prime time to talk about resigning from the CEO role at Tesla and this being the topic.

This will likely be more of the A.I. discussion and talks that he has been having with - FOX news, The White House, Congress, literally every interview he has done outside of the bird app advertising interviews over the past month.

Please understand that would be letting CNBC have MNPI and hoping they don't run their mouths about it.
Wrong thread. Please move to investor round table. We really don’t want everyone migrating to this thread.
 
Wrong thread. Please move to investor round table. We really don’t want everyone migrating to this thread.
Agree - but I think Elon taking up the same role in Tesla as he has done at Twitter is not out of question. Company shareholder meeting might even be an ok time to announce it. I won't be selling any puts for this week, for sure.
 
Agree - but I think Elon taking up the same role in Tesla as he has done at Twitter is not out of question. Company shareholder meeting might even be an ok time to announce it. I won't be selling any puts for this week, for sure.

Is anyone buying any insurance puts? I am kind of worried again 😓. Maybe @Max Plaid losing his shares and being mostly cash can work to his advantage.

I sold $182.5cc at open for $0.53. Setting orders before the market opens has work out well for me lately because the stock has been tanking right after or does nothing.
 
Having some thoughts about the -P165 5/19 I left on. I’m otherwise flat. Even though after assignment (if they assign) the CB of the 3,500 shares will be around $161.50, and I plan to jettison them via selling aggressive ATM CC’s as fast as possible for decent returns, what if we are entering a TSLA winter for a few months and the SP visits the $140’s and—heaven forfend—even lower? I’d hate to be holding a bag for a long time.

My carry cost for this lot will be about $3k/mo and my port (which is now 100% margin free) can handle the new lot down to $102. I’m sure I can generate more than double the carry cost selling weekly CC’s if I’m assigned.

Plus share price doesn’t go straight down, right? There should be a few meager bounces along the way to dump the shares at $165 or even b/e.

We could also close above $165 this Friday and the issue will be moot (max pain is $170).

But just thinking this through.

Would you BTC for tiny gain now and forfeit a $12k win if holding to Friday and closing then for cents?

Am I missing anything?
 
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Agree - but I think Elon taking up the same role in Tesla as he has done at Twitter is not out of question. Company shareholder meeting might even be an ok time to announce it. I won't be selling any puts for this week, for sure.

On the one hand, I think you're right. On the other hand, knowing Elon, he'll probably just Tweet it out randomly on a Thursday and we'll have no heads up whatsoever.
 
Having some thoughts about the -P165 5/19 I left on. I’m otherwise flat. Even though after assignment (if they assign) the CB of the 3,500 shares will be around $161.50, and I plan to jettison them via selling aggressive ATM CC’s as fast as possible for decent returns, what if we are entering a TSLA winter for a few months and the SP visits the $140’s and—heaven forfend—even lower? I’d hate to be holding a bag for a long time.

My carry cost for this lot will be about $3k/mo and my port (which is now 100% margin free) can handle the new lot down to $102. I’m sure I can generate more than double the carry cost selling weekly CC’s if I’m assigned.

Plus share price doesn’t go straight down, right? There should be a few meager bounces along the way to dump the shares at $165 or even b/e.

We could also close above $165 this Friday and the issue will be moot (max pain is $170).

But just thinking this through.

Would you BTC for tiny gain now and forfeit a $12k win if holding to Friday and closing then for cents?

Am I missing anything?
Seems like a pretty good summation of the risks and rewards inherent to the position. The only thing missing, and I wouldn't expect you to post this level of detail, is an idea of the $$ impact will be on your life and situation. What if the shares go back down to say $130 and then spend the rest of the year wobbling around 130-150 for instance? As its shares you don't have a ticking clock that WILL expire.

There's an interesting dynamic that I'm pretty sure everybody has experienced that's been at this more than a few months. ALMOST all the time, in a reasonably similar situation, either sitting on your hands or rolling once or twice, and the share price comes back and the overall position finishes with a nice win. The problem is the ALMOST.

Leading to the notion of taking particularly risky positions off the table early to avoid a really big move against. Which means that MOST of the time, taking risky positions off early realizes losses / minimal gains, when high % gains are just around the corner. It's enough to make you crazy :)


It's a lot easier, downright reasonable even, to hold through these tougher periods when the position is fully owned and unbounded in time. No margin, CSP -- no spreads. It's also pretty reasonable using fully owned positions, to run the wheel (original name of the thread in fact). Starting to see people doing more of that. I think you'd consider wheeling shares / cash when you're more focused on the income and able to get past the opportunity cost of being in cash when the shares head for the sun.
 
My concern this time around is that the democrats decide to let the children have their tantrum as there is a life lesson that needs to be learned. Doing so will get us that much closer to the brink, and like the rest of the world I don't have any real idea of just how the world will change given a default on even a single US treasury or federal government obligation.
My intention is that this is my last comment on this topic - I bring this up specifically because the possibility of default, or getting too close, is the sort of event that (MHO) can make the otherwise normal short term progression just up and change completely. Sort of like inflation going crazy, followed by interest rate hikes. Or Russia invading Ukraine and generating stories that sound like they'd be at home in WW1 reporting.

In my world view - these are unthinkable, and yet now I need to think about these.

I do have opinions and ideas about what can happen - those I'll save for another thread.
 
Seems like a pretty good summation of the risks and rewards inherent to the position. The only thing missing, and I wouldn't expect you to post this level of detail, is an idea of the $$ impact will be on your life and situation. What if the shares go back down to say $130 and then spend the rest of the year wobbling around 130-150 for instance? As its shares you don't have a ticking clock that WILL expire.

There's an interesting dynamic that I'm pretty sure everybody has experienced that's been at this more than a few months. ALMOST all the time, in a reasonably similar situation, either sitting on your hands or rolling once or twice, and the share price comes back and the overall position finishes with a nice win. The problem is the ALMOST.

Leading to the notion of taking particularly risky positions off the table early to avoid a really big move against. Which means that MOST of the time, taking risky positions off early realizes losses / minimal gains, when high % gains are just around the corner. It's enough to make you crazy :)


It's a lot easier, downright reasonable even, to hold through these tougher periods when the position is fully owned and unbounded in time. No margin, CSP -- no spreads. It's also pretty reasonable using fully owned positions, to run the wheel (original name of the thread in fact). Starting to see people doing more of that. I think you'd consider wheeling shares / cash when you're more focused on the income and able to get past the opportunity cost of being in cash when the shares head for the sun.

Thank you for this. At the end of the day I'm learning that a big part of this game is risk management, not profit maximization. The profits will come next week and the week after and the week after with another setup. But they can't come if my account is blown up or put at risk (plunge for several months) due to what could have been reasonably known risks.

Reasonably known risks going into the AGM tomorrow (may also be called overthinking...):
-There IS uncertainty about what's going on re Elon tomorrow at the AGM, with Robyn Denholm's recent video about the BOD and management out of the blue.
-Elon going on CNBC, the den of TSLA bashers. Perhaps there's some serious explaining he needs to put out for what he'll announce at the AGM? His latest tweet says it's not about CNBC but instead David Faber on advice of Ari Emmanual. What advice and why?
-TSLA TA IS in a bearish pattern.
-The EW playbook IS over for now (ala @dl003 himself)
Overall an accumulation of unknowns, which = risk. Any other time perhaps one could wing it. But why risk it?

In favor of no imminent plunge in SP and thus keeping the -P165 open to Friday is:
-Max-Pain for this Friday remains $170 (as of now) and we mysteriously closed the past bunch of Fridays at Max-Pain, sometimes to the penny.
-The announcement at the AGM may be positive at the end, not negative, and even make the SP race (or plunge less fast).
- Elon wouldn't deliberately take measures that would harm his employees and investors by making an announcement that will tank the stock on the heels of what he did in December and in the current macro situation (unless he's forced to for some reason)?
-Elon will still be at Tesla.

I understand there's wisdom for some experts in ignoring the noise and news and just focusing on the TA, but until I'm good enough to do that well I need to have alternative situational awareness.

At the end of the day, I'll aim to BTC it for decent gains on any pump tomorrow and go into the AGM flat.

PS It'd be exactly like TSLA to wind up closing this week above $167.50 :rolleyes: and all this anxiety and planning was for naught (and left $15k on the table...

PPS Am I needlessly scaring myself out of positions?
 
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Having some thoughts about the -P165 5/19 I left on. I’m otherwise flat. ………..snip……..
Would you BTC for tiny gain now and forfeit a $12k win if holding to Friday and closing then for cents?
Similar situation here. ICs for this week with -p165s and either -c175s or -c180s, all with a few $K profit but plenty of premium value still remaining. I’m currently planning to close everything for the profit and leave the table before the AGM. I contemplated a roll and widen, but I’m trying to keep my ICs to less than 5 DTE.

I really thought $165 would hold and this was just a “test” to the day trading options holders (e.g., trying to shake them out before Friday). However, there seems to be too many news items pointing to continued weakness for my risk profile. Also, where is the usual “buy the rumor” run up? We still should expect a dump after the meeting (unless they actually announce some very positive surprise, like sales have exceeded Q1 already). FYI, MaxPain as of this AM was actually slightly below $165. There were slightly more calls (26563) than puts (24236) open at $165, so don’t expect that $170 number to save our $165 puts. If we’re lucky, the SP will bounce around 164-166, but I’m not counting on it.

3F771009-8FDD-46D2-A9A3-D6DA4848C0A8.jpeg
 
PS It'd be exactly like TSLA to wind up closing this week above $167.50 :rolleyes: and all this anxiety and planning was for naught (and left $15k on the table...

PPS Am I needlessly scaring myself out of positions?
My own opinion / not-advice.

The thinking is never for naught.

Core to my own belief system is an important idea about the relationship between decision making, and the fruit or outcome of that decision making.

Clearly the outcomes do matter. However those outcomes are only guides and feedback on the decision making -- they do not determine whether the decision making process, or the decision, was a good one.


The consequence of the first thing is what matters. We can make bad decisions (use a bad decision making process), and have a good outcome. We got lucky - but if we got to a good result using a bad process, future doom awaits.

Similarly, we can make good decisions and have a bad outcome. We got unlucky. If the larger plan is sound, and the risk management is sound, then the belief is that over a larger window of time and decisions, then an overall good outcome is inevitable.


Whether the share price finished above or below 167.50, what matters is how you get to whatever you decide to do. And then when you get results and see the winding path that leads to the results, does that feedback lead you to make a different decision from what you made, at some point in the future when a similar situation arises?

What can you learn today, whatever the outcome is, that will improve the quality of the future decision.


Hope that makes sense.