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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Linear regression line. It looks to me like it is right around the 190 area. Don't know if my 200CC are safe for Friday.
I think the rally will be short-lived. We’ve seen this kind of exuberance many times before, only to see the stock drop back again. So I’ll avoid moving up my put strikes too agressively.
That’s just my personal feeling though, certainly not advice.
For years we’ve been saying: ‘poor OEMs, they lose $2000-$3000 of their margin per car on advertising costs, while Tesla doesn’t need to advertise’. I don’t see how throwing that cost advantage overboard would suddenly make the stock more attractive. Sure, it may lower the need to drop prices, but the net financial result is not necessarily positive.
But let’s not delve into this subject any further as it would take this thread off-topic. It’s a main thread subject.
Time to take a deep breath, sit back and take a look at the big picture.
TSLA has been on a run with 5 straight green days in a row and up nearly 15%. It's now been equal to or above the upper BB for three days and is due for a pause or slight correction to backtest soon. In any case the next measured potential is a move up to $200 and then the 200D SMA at $202. We haven't been above the 200D SMA since September and we've been rejected off it multiple times since. So this and $200 with a massive Call wall will create major resistance that will take some time to work through. So I wouldn't personally get too stressed about CC's above $202 for ths week.
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I bought some $185 P's yesterday right before close for $2.25 each
Going to let those run for a minute and use proceeds to close the sold half of my Calendar $180/$180's for this week.
Right now I have -
SPY $415P's Bought yesterday at $0.85 each for Friday - were up to $1.20 before close yesterday.
05/26 - $180C's these were almost $10 yesterday before close. Looking to get out of these BTC sometime this morning.
06/02 + $180C's These were almost $12 yesterday and I want to let them run if possible
05/26 + $185P's
Lots open right now but I think we will drop below $185 this morning to allow some repositioning and then head higher Wednesday.
My gut feeling is that we need a day or two to allow the Upper BB to creep up before a push through to $200 next week.
If this happens (I give it a 30% chance) I think we see $220 right before the P&D report
Not much of TA here, I go a lot with Gut and trends - so this is definitely not Advice.
If I had some CC's in trouble - I would reposition today
Wow - I missed that one.... On a call and thought I had time...
Sold the Puts for a loss at $2 each - closed the - $180 C's for $10 each
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The pullback in the markets so far is helpful. I don't know if it reverses and goes green by end of day. I'm curious to see if this provides a roll to a higher strike for next week on the CCs for a decent profit.
I end up repositioning my CC's... rolled my $187.5 to $197.5 for next week for a $1.25 debit.
I rolled half of my 200CCs on the dip to next week 207.5 for 0.25 credit (which doesn't feel much better). Starting to feel squeezy.... This could run.
Sold a 202.5CC for Friday. Hold onto your pants!
Opinion please, not advice. I have to move out of the 5/26 spread. Considering next week shirt call at 185, long at 215 , with a credit. Thought is that i will have another chance to roll out improving strike, and if at debit next week or opportunity, so it be. Thoughts? Exercising this 180, 190 is costly, looking to salvage some of the loss. July short 200, $30 wide is a credit as well. I don't want to stick my neck out further.
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I'm sitting out selling any new CC's. TSLA is moving way to quickly and I'm not nimble or daring enough to play in front of it.
Will wait for TSLA to hint where its plateau is and I'll see what to do then. At the end of the day no one knows how high it will climb and at what speed/velocity, and I've lost enough trying to guess, follow others, and then having to roll or BTC for losses. I'm also leery of selling puts too in this environment. Strange confluence of events. Staying out of the way meantime. There's plenty time ahead in life to trade with more clarity.
Personally I'm looking for $205-$215 to shed a number of trading shares to raise some capital.
Will wait for TSLA to hint where its plateau is and I'll see what to do then. At the end of the day no one knows how high it will climb and at what speed/velocity, and I've lost enough trying to guess, follow others, and then having to roll or BTC for losses. I'm also leery of selling puts too in this environment. Strange confluence of events. Staying out of the way meantime. There's plenty time ahead in life to trade with more clarity.
Personally I'm looking for $205-$215 to shed a number of trading shares to raise some capital.
We have been bumping at $192 for a bit - broken through but come back down now a couple of times - market is red overall so that is in your favor.Opinion please, not advice. I have to move out of the 5/26 spread. Considering next week shirt call at 185, long at 215 , with a credit. Thought is that i will have another chance to roll out improving strike, and if at debit next week or opportunity, so it be. Thoughts? Exercising this 180, 190 is costly, looking to salvage some of the loss. July short 200, $30 wide is a credit as well. I don't want to stick my neck out further.
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I would see what you can do to improve strike next week to as high as possible on the short call. Don't worry about the credit - go for a debit to get out in front if possible.
We might stall for a day or 2 to let the upper BB catch up but if buying pressure mounts - the only real wall right now is at $200 and the 200MA at $202
You want to be closed out before that breaks - because if we are above both the 50 day and 200 day - that is a huge green flag for Bulls to pile in.
As always.. not advice
^^^^
Aiming for highest short side , roll to -c190/+c230 was better when SP was at 192 than 189.11 , a .52 debit vs 1.25 debit , strange.
Aiming for highest short side , roll to -c190/+c230 was better when SP was at 192 than 189.11 , a .52 debit vs 1.25 debit , strange.
Don't think so. IWM has been outperforming the last 3 days with a lot of negative EPS tickers making nice gains.
Quite the dump today from almost touching $193 back to $186 (of course right after I BTC some endangered CC's).
What are the charts telling you?
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Sold 10x 5/26 -c205s this morning at $0.69...bought them back at $0.26 just now. Keeping positions small for now in an effort to keep some powder dry. Also carrying 10x 5/26 -c190s sold on Friday at $1.10. Content to continue holding them for now (trading at ~$2.60). May look to exit at breakeven or a small loss...haven't decided yet.
Also still holding 10x 5/26 -c150s (lol)...maybe about time to let those bad boys go. We'll see what this week brings.
I think the market has heavily priced in a deal on the US debt ceiling, so any breakdown in talks will probably result in a sharp selloff. I feel like the probability is small ...haven't decided if I want to potentially throw some money away on a bet that a deal doesn't get done in time to avert a short default.
Also still holding 10x 5/26 -c150s (lol)...maybe about time to let those bad boys go. We'll see what this week brings.
I think the market has heavily priced in a deal on the US debt ceiling, so any breakdown in talks will probably result in a sharp selloff. I feel like the probability is small ...haven't decided if I want to potentially throw some money away on a bet that a deal doesn't get done in time to avert a short default.
Does this TSLA rally have legs or we are still range-bound ($180-195) until 6/30?
A bit of a roller-coaster today!
STO 45x -p195 on the dip - these to straddle the 90x -c190's I'm holding
Plan is still to offload the Dec 2025 c140 LEAPS end of the week, but if there's a 185 pin then I might be tempted to roll the short puts and calls for the extra $30k, will see where we are, can be the US politicians mucking about dumps the markets too, who knows
And I'm still eyeing this trade to take on next:
BTO Dec 2025 +c200 -$63
STO July 2023 1:3 -200 straddle (so 1 put +$22 for every 3 calls +$11x3)
If the SP <200 in July, roll the shorts to the next quarterly, if >200 close the lot out for net ~+$30, if the puts early-assigned would be a net price of $145
All prices approximate, of course... of course there's risk in +c200's but with 2.5 years to run should be plenty of opportunity along the way to recuperate the initial premiums
STO 45x -p195 on the dip - these to straddle the 90x -c190's I'm holding
Plan is still to offload the Dec 2025 c140 LEAPS end of the week, but if there's a 185 pin then I might be tempted to roll the short puts and calls for the extra $30k, will see where we are, can be the US politicians mucking about dumps the markets too, who knows
And I'm still eyeing this trade to take on next:
BTO Dec 2025 +c200 -$63
STO July 2023 1:3 -200 straddle (so 1 put +$22 for every 3 calls +$11x3)
If the SP <200 in July, roll the shorts to the next quarterly, if >200 close the lot out for net ~+$30, if the puts early-assigned would be a net price of $145
All prices approximate, of course... of course there's risk in +c200's but with 2.5 years to run should be plenty of opportunity along the way to recuperate the initial premiums
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