Semi Deposits

[ValueAnalyst]

How much in deposits will Tesla get in the week following the event?

$ Deposits = Units x Deposit per unit

Please post your unit and deposit per unit assumptions.

 

[jelloslug]

I'm already in line to put my deposit down...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm already in line to put my deposit down...

Seriously?

 

[jelloslug]

Seriously?

I don't even know what I will do with a Semi, but I know I need it...

 

[bonnie]

You forgot to include 'How many trucking company contracts do they already have in place?'

 

[ValueAnalyst]

You forgot to include 'How many trucking company contracts do they already have in place?'

True true... that would be amazing.

Just trying to get a sense of a potential FCF+

 

[tander]

You forgot to include 'How many trucking company contracts do they already have in place?'

Yeah I was gonna say what if they've already got all the deposits or even sales? There are plenty of private truckers out there but it would kind of make more sense to go to the trucking companies first if they can prove they are gonna save x dollars and sell tens or hundreds at at time. On the manufacturing side, obviously they've been thinking about this for a while, wonder if it's possible they've already made significant progress setting up to build them in Reno or Buffalo.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Yeah I was gonna say what if they've already got all the deposits or even sales? There are plenty of private truckers out there but it would kind of make more sense to go to the trucking companies first if they can prove they are gonna save x dollars and sell tens or hundreds at at time.

Oh now I see what you mean.

Definitely include Deposits up to this point.

 

[bonnie]

Yeah I was gonna say what if they've already got all the deposits or even sales? There are plenty of private truckers out there but it would kind of make more sense to go to the trucking companies first if they can prove they are gonna save x dollars and sell tens or hundreds at at time.

Exactly. If I were designing an elec semi truck, I'd want heavy input from the largest trucking companies, so I could make sure I met their needs.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Exactly. If I were designing an elec semi truck, I'd want heavy input from the largest trucking companies, so I could make sure I met their needs.

Do you think these design partners would be willing to put large deposits to get in front of the line for what will be a great cost-saving product? Any thoughts on unit and deposit per unit assumptions?

 

[bonnie]

Do you think these design partners would be willing to put large deposits to get in front of the line for what will be a great cost-saving product? Any thoughts on unit and deposit per unit assumptions?

No thoughts whatsoever on unit/deposit assumptions, sorry.

As far as involving potential partners in design, it's a tried & true path to early sales. When you're designing exactly what they want (as in 'what would this product have to be for you to buy 100 of 'em?'), eliminating current problems ... they're invested in the success and they expect to be at the front of the line.

I have zero knowledge of what is actually occurring, only know what I would do -- but I won't be surprised if at least one early customer is announced tomorrow night.

 

[tander]

Exactly. If I were designing an elec semi truck, I'd want heavy input from the largest trucking companies, so I could make sure I met their needs.

Hmm, to piggy back that again. It might make sense to say you'll save x dollars, we're taking deposits, but we if we can get enough full prepays now we can give you a discount and get them to you in 2 years instead of 3 or something, basically get the companies to fund the truck from the start. I don't know enough about trucking but the math might pencil out that makes the most sense and Tesla has clout to pull that off now. Gonna be interesting to see how it shakes out. Really hope they go heavy on the steak and light on the sizzle tomorrow.

 

[SteveG3]

Exactly. If I were designing an elec semi truck, I'd want heavy input from the largest trucking companies, so I could make sure I met their needs.

Elon agrees, (comments from the annual meeting this past June)

“Tesla CEO Elon Musk said Tuesday that the company is working with major truck companies to design the company's first all-electric semi-truck.

"We are showing off a working prototype at the end of September, but we have shown it to people who buy heavy duty trucking and they all love it. They just want to know how many can they buy and how soon," Musk said during Tesla's annual shareholder meeting hosted at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, California.

"We are getting them closely involved in the design process," he said”

Elon Musk just revealed an important detail about Tesla's upcoming electric semi-truck

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Hmm, to piggy back that again. It might make sense to say you'll save x dollars, we're taking deposits, but we if we can get enough full prepays now we can give you a discount and get them to you in 2 years instead of 3 or something, basically get the companies to fund the truck from the start. I don't know enough about trucking but the math might pencil out that makes the most sense and Tesla has clout to pull that off now. Gonna be interesting to see how it shakes out. Really hope they go heavy on the steak and light on the sizzle tomorrow.

I agree with this 110%. This is verbatim what I have been saying; in fact, so exactly the same that I wonder if you have wiretapped my office.

Considering an FSD EV semi’s significantly lower marginal cost per mile of less than $0.5 vs. $1.65 per mile for a diesel semi, customers are greatly incentivized to pay full purchase price upfront to get it even one year in advance than their competitors. The cash is just sitting on their balance sheet earning 1%...

In a way, Tesla would be leveraging its customers’ balance sheets to fund the Semi (and the Model 3) programs.

As you said, Tesla can even sweeten the deal with a discount: “pay $200k now to get it in 2020, or pay $250k and get it in 2022.”

Customers would be saving $50k + $1.15 x 100k miles x 2 years = $280k per truck! It’s a no-brainer for them to pay full price upfront.

Benefit to Tesla is also clear.

I don’t know if Tesla will lay it out like this, but the math works for everyone.

 

[dc_h]

I’m assuming the worst and hoping for the best. They only need 1-3 customers and the deposits could be 100M or much more. Part of deposit depends on lead time and could involve additional payments based on milestones.

 

[electracity]

Z.E.R.O.

But maybe a development deal that will look good and can be hyped.

 

[Reciprocity]

$10k x 10k minimum. These things have been designed along side the customer. If solar roof can get 20k, the semi should be able to do 10k minimum.

 

[jhm]

20k × $10k

 

[SBenson]

Zero deposits.

Maybe someone will be willing to spare a few resources to help test/direct. But no cash “given” to Tesla.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I see a lot of WAGs very wide ranged barbell situation going on... nobody knows what will happen. Stay tuned