Semi viability

[Suns_PSD]

Hey guys & gals, I'm new around here and just wanted to get the latest info on the CT as I have a deposit, like many others.

A couple of unrelated points I thought I'd mention in no particular order:

1) The CT has seats that don't appear to be nearly as thick as normal truck seats. I consider this a HUGE advantage for space savings. As a result it appears the rear passengers butts are quite low leaving enough head room even with the aero shape applied to the CT roofline.
2) The product that should be shelved is the Tesla Semi. I work in trucking and do have some inside info on this topic that would be inappropriate to share. But what can be noticed and discussed with anyone is that current and near term future battery technology doesn't provide enough energy density for heavy loads. I get all the arguments (spoke operation, short runs, etc) but trucking has new emissions standards coming out and Cummins will have a production CNG engine that can be installed in any brand of truck, with no emissions, very quiet, extremely cheap to operate (much cheaper than current diesels), with a comparatively small upcharge over current diesel offerings (upcharge about $50K, vs. 400K for EV) compared to what EV trucks with a fraction of the performance, will cost. The fueling infrastructure is already essentially in place because gas pipelines already run down every major route. The engines we sold like this 10+ years ago have turned out to be extraordinarily reliable and will just get better. The math just makes EV semis a bad choice considering current battery tech. And frankly the CNG is more enviro friendly.

The place for EVs is smaller lighter vehicles. Passenger cars, motorcycles, riding mowers, maybe skidsteers, and vehicles like the CT for people like me that use a truck daily but don't pull heavy trailers and if I did it would be for a short distance.

 

[JRP3]

Right....

 

[henderrj]

That may be why there are two different companies making all battery electric locomotives. They're small, right?

 

[Suns_PSD]

That may be why there are two different companies making all battery electric locomotives. They're small, right?

No need to be sarcastic. I know a few things about the EV trucks that are not common knowledge. The energy density isn't there with modern technology. The value isn't there at all. It takes 40.7 KwH to equal 1 gallon of diesel. I own diesel trucks with very short local routes. They only burn about 65 gallons per day which is quite low in the trucking world and is a local route, never going more than 20 miles. That would require 2,646 KwH of electricity. A standard model 3 has a 50 KwH battery. That's 53 Model 3 battery packs for one low mileage truck if I charge to 100% and deplete to 0% everyday. That Model 3 battery pack weighs 1,060#s so I'd need more than my entire legal payload just to carry the batteries alone, to equal 65 gallons of diesel fuel (weight about 400#s).

Your 2 locomotive examples above don't really doesn't tell the entire story. Those locomotives cost over 10 million each, they weigh 118 tons (236,000 #s) each, they have relatively short/ dedicated routes, and they are essentially an experiment for companies with deep pockets and no doubt huge government incentives. If all locomotives were swapped to electric right now. This country would run out of needed goods in a week. The EV locomotives simply can't do the work of the existing technology.

As much as I love EVs, the energy density just isn't there compared to fossil fuels, and trucking is weight sensitive since they have to abide by Federal Road & Bridge Laws where-as Locomotives don't.

There is also the little issue that batteries of this size come with significant enviro issues when mining, plus the energy production itself at the power plant.

Instead of using CNG, to run power plants, to charge batteries, it just makes more sense to use CNG to power the heavy stuff directly because of energy density, weight & cost (I've already seen pricing on EV trucks, the difference is such that it would pay for 30 years of free diesel fuel). At least until Solid State technology makes a significant leap EVs should be used for lighter more aero vehicles.

The low hanging fruit is passenger vehicles.

~ take care

 

[henderrj]

No need to be sarcastic. I know a few things about the EV trucks that are not common knowledge. The energy density isn't there with modern technology. The value isn't there at all. It takes 40.7 KwH to equal 1 gallon of diesel. I own diesel trucks with very short local routes. They only burn about 65 gallons per day which is quite low in the trucking world and is a local route, never going more than 20 miles. That would require 2,646 KwH of electricity. A standard model 3 has a 50 KwH battery. That's 53 Model 3 battery packs for one low mileage truck if I charge to 100% and deplete to 0% everyday. That Model 3 battery pack weighs 1,060#s so I'd need more than my entire legal payload just to carry the batteries alone, to equal 65 gallons of diesel fuel (weight about 400#s).

Your 2 locomotive examples above don't really doesn't tell the entire story. Those locomotives cost over 10 million each, they weigh 118 tons (236,000 #s) each, they have relatively short/ dedicated routes, and they are essentially an experiment for companies with deep pockets and no doubt huge government incentives. If all locomotives were swapped to electric right now. This country would run out of needed goods in a week. The EV locomotives simply can't do the work of the existing technology.

As much as I love EVs, the energy density just isn't there compared to fossil fuels, and trucking is weight sensitive since they have to abide by Federal Road & Bridge Laws where-as Locomotives don't.

There is also the little issue that batteries of this size come with significant enviro issues when mining, plus the energy production itself at the power plant.

Instead of using CNG, to run power plants, to charge batteries, it just makes more sense to use CNG to power the heavy stuff directly because of energy density, weight & cost (I've already seen pricing on EV trucks, the difference is such that it would pay for 30 years of free diesel fuel). At least until Solid State technology makes a significant leap EVs should be used for lighter more aero vehicles.

The low hanging fruit is passenger vehicles.

~ take care

I wasn't trying to be sarcastic. Just thought it was kind of funny. And yes, I knew those limitations.

However you're making one significant calculation error. It isn't straight energy exchange. Electric motors are dramatically more efficient. And there's regen braking. This comes into play particularly with, say, garbage trucks. They get much greater range than one would expect by directly calculating kilowatt hours and miles. Regen makes a huge difference.

 

[Ogre]

Setting aside the long haul routes, there are a lot of trucks which drive short-mid range routes. The BEV semis can charge up while they wait for their next load or have lunch. BEV semis are coming even if something else is as well.

The next generation of long haul semis are going to be dominated less by fuel choice and more by who comes to market with driver automation first.

Tesla semi with FSD would destroy any fuel advantage anyone else could cook up.

It’s possible someone else gets there first, Tesla isn’t the only player in the truck driver replacement game.

 

[Suns_PSD]

That is a valid point regarding efficiency and brake regens. However I've seen an actual cost quote and range expectations for actual EV trash trucks. Needless to say, at this point, they don't work for really anyone, in the real world.

 

[Ogre]

That is a valid point regarding efficiency and brake regens. However I've seen an actual cost quote and range expectations for actual EV trash trucks. Needless to say, at this point, they don't work for really anyone, in the real world.

*** YET ***


I’m sure it’ll take some time before they crack this nut, and maybe it’ll come one little piece at a time, but semis will be electric eventually. Even if it is a hybrid fuel cell/ BEV with the batteries primarily for regen.

 

[Suns_PSD]

Trucks rarely wait that long at stops, trucking is a low margin business and has to be efficient. Running 6-8 hours between breaks is standard.

The best fit for EV trucks at this time is low weight, stop/ go, mostly parked applications. Moving trucks would be great for this. Only do 60 miles in a day, hauling some furniture that weighs 5K#s at most. The owners of these companies aren't 'truckers' so getting away from the truck maintenance makes a lot of sense.

Certainly battery power density will come WAY up in time. It'll need to. Times 10 at a minimum. At the same cost or less.

In our lifetimes however, multifuel options will be the key. EVs for so many applications, but CNG for the heavy stuff. That's my opinion anyways.

Anyways, didn't mean to sidetrack.

Back to the CT!

 

[henderrj]

Electric garbage trucks are the quiet, clean titans of waste collection

Giant battery-powered garbage trucks are like the Teslas of waste collection: quiet, peppy, and with zero tailpipe emissions.

www.popsci.com

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Setting aside the long haul routes, there are a lot of trucks which drive short-mid range routes. The BEV semis can charge up while they wait for their next load or have lunch. BEV semis are coming even if something else is as well.

The next generation of long haul semis are going to be dominated less by fuel choice and more by who comes to market with driver automation first.

Tesla semi with FSD would destroy any fuel advantage anyone else could cook up.

It’s possible someone else gets there first, Tesla isn’t the only player in the truck driver replacement game.

aaah... FSD. Where Tesla currently offers Level 2. What is needed is Level 5.

Trucks rolling around driverless is a whole different requirement. They can't get blinded by sunlight / have dirty cameras/ or roll through stop signs/ or slam on the brakes because they *think* something is there.

The best case for automating truck driving are long stretches on the interstates/ highways ... and Tesla doesn't even have a Level 3 product there.

 

[JRP3]

It takes 40.7 KwH to equal 1 gallon of diesel.

This is false and shows that either you haven't done even basic research or you're purposely spreading misinformation.

As much as I love EVs, the energy density just isn't there compared to fossil fuels, and trucking is weight sensitive since they have to abide by Federal Road & Bridge Laws where-as Locomotives don't.

So what you're saying is that Tesla, who knows more about EV's than any other company, hasn't run the numbers and is actively building a product which will fail.

There is also the little issue that batteries of this size come with significant enviro issues when mining, plus the energy production itself at the power plant.

This has all been covered and proven not to be significant over the life of the vehicle. Not to mention that EV's can and are already be powered from renewable sources. Basically you're putting out the same FUD talking points we've heard over a decade about EV's.

 

[ThomasD]

NYC doesn't even have it's own landfill. How far do the garbage trucks in the NYC metro area go to dump their trucks? Trash trucks like the Mack electric LR only has a range of up to 70 miles

 

[UncleCreepy]

Running 6-8 hours between breaks is standard.

There is no standard. Demands are different. You know best what you do, but that doesn't apply to every truck driver. My girlfriend works 10-14 hour short-haul shifts and frequently stops at Walmart docks. While they're unloading her trailer, there would be plenty of time to top up the battery. Not that it would be necessary, she doesn't typically exceed 800 kms. The 800 kms apply to highway speeds anyway, so there is a good chance that she would be able to exceed that target.
Also, why would Walmart order a whole fleet of Tesla Semis? I doubt that they hired a Tesla fanboy to make that decision. They do see the financial benefit. It's not only Diesel vs. hydro (or electricity for our American friends). An engine light should be a very rare occurrence on an EV Semi. There are way less parts that can cause problems, thus increasing the uptime which, as you undoubtedly are aware, equals money.

I do see your concerns for long haul and I do agree that the battery density needs to go up. Payload is a real issue if you're regularly at 80,000 pounds and you have less payload because of the weight of the Semi.

That's the same argument as people not wanting a Model 3 because they live in a highrise building with no dedicated spot to park/charge though. That doesn't make an EV a bad choice for others who have a detached house with a garage.

I still believe in EV semis even if they can't cover 100% of all scenarios. As others have mentioned, battery technology is constantly improving.

 

[JRP3]

Payload is a real issue if you're regularly at 80,000 pounds and you have less payload because of the weight of the Semi.

Federal rules allow states to increase payload limits by 2K lbs for EV semis.

 

[Rocky_H]

This thread is an awesome bit of comedy! This guy, Joe Internet User, thinks he has the Super Secret that these companies don't know, about how this product is unusable.

Tesla, Wal-Mart, Anheuser-Busch, Meijer, Ryder, Pepsi, FedEx, DHL, UPS, J.B. Hunt, and many others who operate trucking fleets.

Tesla has a new customer for its electric Semi — here are all the companies that have ordered the big rig

City Furniture joins other US companies like Walmart, Anheuser-Busch, and Pepsi as the first customers for Tesla's Semi.

www.businessinsider.com

(And that article is a few years old now, so many more customers since then too)

 

[ThomasD]

Musk said that the semi can charge to 100% in 30 minutes. We don't know at what low of a charge the truck would have to be at to charge in 30 minutes. We already know that supercharger speeds and voltage can slow resulting in long charge times. Long charging times for the semi won't work. Until customers get these trucks we don't even know how close the truck will get to the 500 mile mark. Or how much of a range hit these vehicles will have in winter conditions. How many Tesla semis will Pepsi be able to charge at one time with that setup they have

 

[nwdiver]

I don't understand why this isn't getting more attention. You wouldn't need it everywhere. Just certain segments especially up the uphill side of steep grades...

Seems like it would be the best of everything. Cheap, efficient electricity, long range and a smaller battery.

 

[ThomasD]

Are those gantries charging the batteries on the roof of the trucks or are there batteries on the trailers

 

[ThomasD]

Would ice, snow and dirt restrict the amount of charge the truck could get. This could work for short distances on Interstates. Less than a few hundred miles. I just don't see it viable for long distances or on the thousands of miles of 2 lane highways that semis travel every day