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Semi viability
- Thread starter Suns_PSD
- Start date
Just some points here
1. Tesla has never delivered a 600mi class 8 truck, and they won't for many years. The delays are because they can't produce the specs they defined, just like with the Model S Plaid (later rebranded Plaid+).
2. Brands like Daimler & Volvo seem to outsiders like they are playing catch up, but both have been designing, building, and validating electric class 8 trucks for years now. Their specs look much worse than Tesla's because they are quoting numbers from units they have built and put into customers hands.
3. Electric class 8 trucks are absolutely viable. It will be at least 5 years until we see them hauling cross country in large numbers, but there are plenty of existing use cases.
1. Tesla has never delivered a 600mi class 8 truck, and they won't for many years. The delays are because they can't produce the specs they defined, just like with the Model S Plaid (later rebranded Plaid+).
2. Brands like Daimler & Volvo seem to outsiders like they are playing catch up, but both have been designing, building, and validating electric class 8 trucks for years now. Their specs look much worse than Tesla's because they are quoting numbers from units they have built and put into customers hands.
3. Electric class 8 trucks are absolutely viable. It will be at least 5 years until we see them hauling cross country in large numbers, but there are plenty of existing use cases.
henderrj
Active Member
2 and 3 may be on point but 1, not close.
Tesla's stated reason for postponing the semis has always been batteries. And it makes reasonable sense. They can put vastly more cars on the road with those batteries. This funds the development of everything else they do. As you said, long range class 8 semis are viable, but the battery situation is still very much an issue. For everyone. However Tesla has batteries figured out Way beyond anyone else. That may be their strong point for some years to come. The question is, when is it financially the most responsible thing to do to develop a class 8 truck?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It is possible that people thought Tesla was already manufacturing the batteries for the Semi when it came on stage. 180k for a 500 mile while topping the scales at 80K electric truck with a 30 minute charge time and a cheaper operating cost than an ICE Semi. What they didn't say was we have no idea when we will have the battery packs in enough quantity to build the Semi. We don't know how much energy is used in the semis that Tesla is driving around now. Is it using 300 miles of range to go 250 miles? It could be using 400 miles to go 250 miles. I kept reading articles that said Tesla can only build 15 semis a week due to battery constraints since December. If that was the case there should be around 70 semis built by now.
AMPd
Well-Known Member
I don’t think the truck is going to cost 180k. Truck prices have risen quite a bit, used truck prices especially have skyrocketed.
Today a truck purchased 2 years ago for 150k can be sold for the same or even higher price.
Today a truck purchased 2 years ago for 150k can be sold for the same or even higher price.
1) Tesla hasn't showing a daycab as far as I've seen. However that is the obvious market for this product.
2) A modern auto trans daycab runs about $160K. Add $70K/ year for fuel plus more for engine maintenance expenses and you can see how it adds up pretty quickly.
Add autonomous driving and get rid of $90K/ year in driver wages/ benefits/ rehiring expenses, what do you have then?
What would you think is a competitive sales price for a 500 mile range EV semi? What if it was autonomous? What if insurance went down, instead of up for once?
IMO an EV semi that was autonomous with a 5yr/ 600K warranty is worth well over half a million dollars. Trucks cost 1.5-2 million (includes wages & fuel) to operate typically over their lifetimes so that would an easy calculation for any fleet manager.
2) A modern auto trans daycab runs about $160K. Add $70K/ year for fuel plus more for engine maintenance expenses and you can see how it adds up pretty quickly.
Add autonomous driving and get rid of $90K/ year in driver wages/ benefits/ rehiring expenses, what do you have then?
What would you think is a competitive sales price for a 500 mile range EV semi? What if it was autonomous? What if insurance went down, instead of up for once?
IMO an EV semi that was autonomous with a 5yr/ 600K warranty is worth well over half a million dollars. Trucks cost 1.5-2 million (includes wages & fuel) to operate typically over their lifetimes so that would an easy calculation for any fleet manager.
Besides the major problem already pointed out in your numbers. (That the thermal efficiency of a diesel engine is, perhaps 35% - 40% compared to 90%+ for electric motors, without even considering regen braking)
A lesser issue is that you are ignoring the weight/size of the diesel engine compared to the electric motors. A semi diesel engine, by itself, weighs as much as 2500 - 3000 pounds. The Tesla semi, reportedly, will have 4 motors similar to the Model 3 motors, which weigh just 70 pounds each.
Certainly the EV battery is going to weigh a lot, but you have to consider the entire drive train.
Apologize for my poor napkin math.
There has to be a way to equate say 300 hp/ 1000 tq (just a guesstimate on cruising power needs) fuel usage directly over to how much battery juice that takes. Once you now the rate just calculate the amount of battery juice and it's weight to equal a reasonable amount of diesel fuel.
There has to be a way to equate say 300 hp/ 1000 tq (just a guesstimate on cruising power needs) fuel usage directly over to how much battery juice that takes. Once you now the rate just calculate the amount of battery juice and it's weight to equal a reasonable amount of diesel fuel.
There is a huge difference in a mistake in napkin math & being totally out of your depth.
I'll defer to Tesla. They probably did the napkin math many years ago and have already graduated to a higher level than napkins by now.
UncleCreepy
Member
ACT: Half of Class 4-8 Sales to be BEV by 2035
www.truckinginfo.com
ACT: Half of Class 4-8 Sales to be BEV by 2035
Battery-electric Class 4-8 vehicles already show positive total cost of ownership compared to conventional vehicles in three-quarters of the applications examined by ACT Research in an extensive analysis.
www.truckinginfo.com
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