So, with all the uncertainty and confusion around MYLR deliveries from December or thereabouts on, I thought I might try to summarize all the factors/components in play with regards the cars we'll be getting. If I've missed anything or got anything wrong, dear people, by all means correct me. This is just what I've gleaned from Twitter, Youtube, and posts here.
a. Model Ys up until December would seem to be as they are now: from Fremont with 2170s and no structural battery pack. They're obviously also not using the front and rear single castings.
b. Kato Road seems to already be producing 4680s at some volume. They don't seem to be being produced currently at Giga Nevada
c. It seems that sometime (Xmas? start of 2022? mid 2022?) Fremont will retool the Model Y production line to include 4680s in the structural pack.
d. It doesn't seem that this switch will dramatically increase MY range. Rather, fewer batteries will be used, making the car lighter + more efficient. As well as the higher energy density, the 4680s will charge faster.
e. There's been talk of a MY range increase for months (and we went to 82kwh packs sometime around March 21), so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the MYLR increase range to 345 or something like that (from 326).
f. Giga Austin may start with 2170s in the structural battery pack before switching to 4680s. From what we can tell, the structural packs will be used with the front and rear castings from the start.
g. Giga Austin will have all the tools for far more precise construction/build quality than Fremont, but whether that will be apparent in the initial production ramp with all its bugs and glitches seems somewhat doubtful. EM has said in the past that the initial ramp up is the worst period for car quality.
h. There could well be a period where the MYs from Fremont and Texas feature different batteries (for example: Austin doing 4680s while Fremont continues with 2170s or even vice versa) and the structural pack or not, and whether you get one or the other may just be down to dumb luck. I can't imagine we'd be given the opportunity to choose, as nobody would want the 2170 Ys.
i. There is a ridiculous amount of contingencies at play here in relation to what version of the MY we all get...
I think this covers most things/rumors/uncertainties? I'm curious if September order folks would rather wait for MYs from Austin, or are prepared to wait significantly for 4680s, or whether you'd actually prefer the predictability (and hopefully shorter wait) that comes with a Fremont build.
I ordered on 9/5. I'm in VA so we are in close proximity which makes the same EDD make sense. Fate is going to decide if I get the EV Tax credit...if it actually passes.
