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Seriously, why does Elon feel the need to lie about even short-term fsd beta timelines.

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A good while back now, Elon said 10.13 would be here in two weeks. Now, we all knew that would never occur. The question is, “Why has it gotten to this point?” The point being that we take what Elon says as timelines as complete bs. It doesn’t have to be this way. We would all be so much happier if he just said, “10.X will be here in over a month. We would not be mad that we would be waiting a month, rather we would be glad that we were most likely getting a realistic timeline. I get that it’s hard to estimate over years. But weeks? I hate just sitting around waiting with literally no information about the next version except a “two weeks” that we know to be false.
We love you Elon.
Please be honest.
 
A good while back now, Elon said 10.13 would be here in two weeks. Now, we all knew that would never occur. The question is, “Why has it gotten to this point?” The point being that we take what Elon says as timelines as complete bs. It doesn’t have to be this way. We would all be so much happier if he just said, “10.X will be here in over a month. We would not be mad that we would be waiting a month, rather we would be glad that we were most likely getting a realistic timeline. I get that it’s hard to estimate over years. But weeks? I hate just sitting around waiting with literally no information about the next version except a “two weeks” that we know to be false.
We love you Elon.
Please be honest.
I would ask the opposite. Does it Really matter when the update comes out? It’s not like the car shut off and doesn’t run. Yet there are hundreds of posts and tweets asking “when is the next update and why is it taking so long?” My wife’s Ice car hasn’t had an update in 5 years since we bought it. Why are we So dependent on new releases?
 
...Does it Really matter when the update comes out?...

Because the new car warranty only last 4 years. We want to be able to use FSD with good collision avoidance technology before the warranty runs out.

Each day of delay is each day toward the expiration of the new car warranty. When you run out of warranty, if the FSD hardware (such as $758.38 for a camera...) is broken, you'll have to pay for it without a single day of enjoying the FSD with good collision avoidance technology.

The radar was taken away with the hope of superior stationary object collision avoidance but that ability is not the case for Tesla.
 
A good while back now, Elon said 10.13 would be here in two weeks. Now, we all knew that would never occur. The question is, “Why has it gotten to this point?” The point being that we take what Elon says as timelines as complete bs. It doesn’t have to be this way. We would all be so much happier if he just said, “10.X will be here in over a month. We would not be mad that we would be waiting a month, rather we would be glad that we were most likely getting a realistic timeline. I get that it’s hard to estimate over years. But weeks? I hate just sitting around waiting with literally no information about the next version except a “two weeks” that we know to be false.
We love you Elon.
Please be honest.
I guess you would be happier if you got an update with critical issues.

Or, maybe I should say, more critical issues!
 
Everybody chill out please. All I’m saying is that he could be a little more realistic with his estimations. I bought the car knowing it has software updates. This is not a competition to ice vehicles here. Chill.
I’m completely fine if they take more time between updates. In fact, do that and make each release a noticeable improvement. Just inform the 100k people that it’s gonna be a bit longer of a wait. Don’t say 2 weeks when you know it’s not.
And when you pay 12 grand for something promised. Yes actually. It does matter.
 
Because the new car warranty only last 4 years. We want to be able to use FSD with good collision avoidance technology before the warranty runs out.

Each day of delay is each day toward the expiration of the new car warranty. When you run out of warranty, if the FSD hardware (such as $758.38 for a camera...) is broken, you'll have to pay for it without a single day of enjoying the FSD with good collision avoidance technology.

The radar was taken away with the hope of superior stationary object collision avoidance but that ability is not the case for Tesla.
Interesting thought, but I doubt many customers are thinking “warranty expiration” when it comes to Elon timelines.
 
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Everybody chill out please. All I’m saying is that he could be a little more realistic with his estimations. I bought the car knowing it has software updates. This is not a competition to ice vehicles here. Chill.
I’m completely fine if they take more time between updates. In fact, do that and make each release a noticeable improvement. Just inform the 100k people that it’s gonna be a bit longer of a wait. Don’t say 2 weeks when you know it’s not.
And when you pay 12 grand for something promised. Yes actually. It does matter.
This makes sense, but only if we assume he knows. It certainly doesn’t seem like he’s lying as much as he’s mistaken. I see he’s hopeful and excited and wanting to meet these timelines. Predicting the future is hard.

Sadly, I can relate. I’m notorious for being late. Friends, coworkers, managers, everybody has just assumed I’ll be late. Sometimes I’m on time or even early, but it’s a big deal to everyone when I’m not late. I’m always hopeful I’ll not be late and am genuinely trying not to be. Doesn’t matter whether threatened with failing a class, firing from a job, rewards if I’m early, I am always running behind or close to it. Try setting your clock 15 mins ahead! Try arriving 30 mins before! Why don’t you try this? Try that? It’s been decades of trying every suggestion under the sun and still a problem. I have my reasons most times why I think I was late and ultimately I have no excuse, but… it still happens.
 
Everybody chill out please. All I’m saying is that he could be a little more realistic with his estimations. I bought the car knowing it has software updates. This is not a competition to ice vehicles here. Chill.
I’m completely fine if they take more time between updates. In fact, do that and make each release a noticeable improvement. Just inform the 100k people that it’s gonna be a bit longer of a wait. Don’t say 2 weeks when you know it’s not.
And when you pay 12 grand for something promised. Yes actually. It does matter.

Why start now? He's been making stuff up for years whenever he feels it's beneficial.

FSD is a money sink if people don't pay for it, it's mostly a software switch to enable it, and the value of Tesla depends heavily on it.
So, yes, he's going to oversell it.
 
This makes sense, but only if we assume he knows. It certainly doesn’t seem like he’s lying as much as he’s mistaken. I see he’s hopeful and excited and wanting to meet these timelines. Predicting the future is hard.

Sadly, I can relate. I’m notorious for being late. Friends, coworkers, managers, everybody has just assumed I’ll be late. Sometimes I’m on time or even early, but it’s a big deal to everyone when I’m not late. I’m always hopeful I’ll not be late and am genuinely trying not to be. Doesn’t matter whether threatened with failing a class, firing from a job, rewards if I’m early, I am always running behind or close to it. Try setting your clock 15 mins ahead! Try arriving 30 mins before! Why don’t you try this? Try that? It’s been decades of trying every suggestion under the sun and still a problem. I have my reasons most times why I think I was late and ultimately I have no excuse, but… it still happens.

Mike Birbiglia hates you.

I used to think I was an early person, but I've realized that I'm an early person only when I feel a high cost of being late. Otherwise it varies a bit.
 
A good while back now, Elon said 10.13 would be here in two weeks. Now, we all knew that would never occur. The question is, “Why has it gotten to this point?” The point being that we take what Elon says as timelines as complete bs. It doesn’t have to be this way. We would all be so much happier if he just said, “10.X will be here in over a month. We would not be mad that we would be waiting a month, rather we would be glad that we were most likely getting a realistic timeline. I get that it’s hard to estimate over years. But weeks? I hate just sitting around waiting with literally no information about the next version except a “two weeks” that we know to be false.
We love you Elon.
Please be honest.
When was the last time Elon was honest about anything? Serious question.

He’s a carnival barker. That’s all.
 
A good while back now, Elon said 10.13 would be here in two weeks. Now, we all knew that would never occur. The question is, “Why has it gotten to this point?” The point being that we take what Elon says as timelines as complete bs. It doesn’t have to be this way. We would all be so much happier if he just said, “10.X will be here in over a month. We would not be mad that we would be waiting a month, rather we would be glad that we were most likely getting a realistic timeline. I get that it’s hard to estimate over years. But weeks? I hate just sitting around waiting with literally no information about the next version except a “two weeks” that we know to be false.
We love you Elon.
Please be honest.
He can't stop, because he believes it all, and without anyone who dares tell him to stop it, he will keep on doing it. Emporer's new clothes an all that. I'm sure everyone in Tesla wince when he tweets, but what can they do?

As others have noted, FSD beta will proceed at its own pace, with releases as and when they are ready. Speculating/salivating over the next upcoming release is a fools game imho.
 
I would ask the opposite. Does it Really matter when the update comes out? It’s not like the car shut off and doesn’t run. Yet there are hundreds of posts and tweets asking “when is the next update and why is it taking so long?” My wife’s Ice car hasn’t had an update in 5 years since we bought it. Why are we So dependent on new releases?
There was no expectation whatsoever from the CEO of the company that produced your wifes ICE car, that there would be any update...

See the difference? (facts are easier to spot if you dont have a massive bias in favor of a brand).
 
The question is, “Why has it gotten to this point?” The point being that we take what Elon says as timelines as complete bs. It doesn’t have to be this way.
I seem to recall seeing an interview with Musk a year or two ago in which he was asked this question. His response, from memory and paraphrased, was to admit that he has a tendency to get excited and optimistic, but that this was a necessary trait in order to aggressively push new and cutting-edge technologies -- that is, without the optimism that leads to inaccurate public timelines, there would be no FSD-on-city-streets (even in its current state), no Model 3, no Model S, etc.

I'm not saying that I accept this explanation. I'm also frustrated by the guessing game of trying to figure out when a promised future feature will actually become available. Right now, for instance, I'm wondering whether I should try the do-it-yourself CCS retrofit on my 2019 Model 3 or wait for the promised official version. Musk could certainly learn to keep his mouth shut publicly when it comes to timelines while still being as "optimistic" as he likes internally. Thus, one can't help but wonder if Musk is doing this deliberately as a way of hyping Tesla and its (at least somewhat) vaporware products. Being publicly "optimistic" about timelines could be an effective business strategy. How many millions of dollars has Tesla raked in on the FSD package, which has yet to deliver anything better than the sort of auto-park features every other automaker already offers and a Flaky Student Driver mode that requires more attention than normal driving? All that cynicism aside, I'm willing to forgive Tesla charging customers for non-existent or alpha-test software if they eventually deliver something that works. It's something like a Kickstarter campaign -- they collect money up front for a feature that's not yet been developed, and in return, early investors get the feature for less money than it'll eventually cost. It's been long enough, though, and long enough past Tesla's timelines from, say, 3.5 years ago, that I personally am losing patience. I paid $5,000 for FSD in early 2019, which is much less than what it costs today, but I still haven't gotten my $5,000 worth, and I'm not confident that I ever will. That said, I knew it was a gamble at that time. Hence, I have mixed feelings on this subject.
 
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I guess you would be happier if you got an update with critical issues.

Or, maybe I should say, more critical issues!
No. Based solely in his comments in this thread, What appears would make him happy is simply having the CEO/Founder/Hands on leader of the company learn from the past and provide realistic timelines/expectations for updates. If the CEO finds (repeatedly) that he is unable to do so, he should turn that part of marketing/comms over to a trusted Marketing/Comms leader within the company.

See how simple problems can be diagnosed when one isnt heavily biased towards the company/CEO?
 
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I can see both sides of this one. I don't think Elon "lies" in so much as he's hopelessly optimistic. On some level, too, I think he believes he can will things into existence because he's rich, powerful, intelligent and it's worked for him in the past (not unlike another fellow whose name rhymes with dump, though perhaps minus the intelligence :) ). Sometimes that can be a good thing...but it can also drive people mad.

Regardless of all that, I must say, for me personally, my enthusiasm for all of this has definitely fizzled. I got into the beta on the initial wave, and it was super exciting. Its performance was shockingly bad, but updates were frequent, improvements were noticeable and the buzz was through the roof. It felt like Tesla was on the cusp of finally making this happen, and it felt really cool to play a part in that. Contrast that to now - updates are less frequent, the improvements are less noticeable, they've laid off parts of the beta team, Elon's public commentary has been off the rails and the lack of communication either to beta testers or to the media just doesn't leave a good impression. Of course, Tesla doesn't owe any of us any level of communication (though is it too much to ask for a company as big as this to at least have a friggin' PR department???). And it absolutely does perform much better now vs. the first release, so there's been progress. But is the end anywhere in sight? I don't think so anymore.

Anyways - I still use FSDb often when I'm driving alone, and I still dutifully press the snapshot button (a lot ;) ). But it's been a while since I've sent an email to the team, and my expectations are now quite low. But at least I don't get all worked up about things anymore!
 
He can't stop, because he believes it all, and without anyone who dares tell him to stop it, he will keep on doing it. Emporer's new clothes an all that. I'm sure everyone in Tesla wince when he tweets, but what can they do?

As others have noted, FSD beta will proceed at its own pace, with releases as and when they are ready. Speculating/salivating over the next upcoming release is a fools game imho.

I find it hard to get excited by anything Tesla since the Model Y.
Everything since has been overhyped, over-delayed, or compromised in some way.
Musk was the right CEO for the rapid growth phase, and navigated Tesla through some treacherous waters.
However to go mainstream and sell to the masses (not just the guys who had v1 iPhones).. they may need a transition plan.

FSD, Cybertruck, Roadster, Falcon Wing Doors, Yoke, Stalkless, Plaid speed w/o properly matched brakes..

They are starting to see a lot of competent & attractive competition at each price point they compete.. with gaps being filled as well.
Tesla over-optimizes for minimizing SKUs and supply chain.
So at the higher price points you have luxury makers competing with a much more complete package.
At the lower price points you have VW, Ford and Hyundai/Kia undercutting especially with tax credits. Not to mention Bolt clear out..
And then everywhere in between you have other form factors being offered that Tesla hasn't yet or won't.
Such as city car, basic commuter car, true sports car, pickup, normal SUV, minivan (soon), etc.
 
The point being that we take what Elon says as timelines as complete bs
Maybe we should take what Elon says for "two weeks" as what it actually is: active development. It seems like Tesla has 2-week sprints, so if he replies to a specific behavior with "two weeks," then it's probably something the team was actively working on. If it's a reply to a more general, "when's the next version" then it'll always be "two weeks" as the team is generally actively working on the next version and will ship it when it's ready. But clearly there's delays such as regressions or incomplete functionality that delays the "next release" (and can't be easily split out to release something "on schedule.")

The team is well aware of the increasing time since last release and probably is also eager to have the bleeding edge development get broader testing to collect real world data.
 
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I think that he uses two weeks as a joke. It also happens to be the time span that Tesla's deveipment process takes; i.e. they create new builds every two weeks. If the latest build is good enough and it would be helpful to the development team to have it tested by the Beta testers, then they release it.

If we really are Beta testers, then the development team doesn't "owe" us anything. Our job is to help with development by testing the product. Their job isn't to stick to 2 week schedule to make us feel good...
 
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