It infuriates me that these are in user hands and we don’t know precisely what the (minimum) energy capacity is (this is extremely easily determined - has someone posted it - please link if so!). But anyway it seems to be around 70-75kWh
The 4680 model Y is 70kWh with 279 range and the 2170 model Y is 82kWh with 326 miles.
First: this thread is about lying about FSD beta short-term promises, so not sure why
@2101Guy brought up battery promises. Anyhow...
Catching up on this. I guess it's all common knowledge. Haven't been paying attention! Shouldn't have gotten infuriated, lol.
Anyway, yes, looks like 70kWh pack. Also in the EPA documents. Grabbed it off this video, it's about 68kWh degradation threshold at the moment:
Later in the video it looks like the line is at 248Wh/mi or so (definitely below 249Wh/mi). So 243Wh/mi (248-5 as is the norm).
So that would imply 279mi*243Wh/mi = 67.8kWh.
So all consistent on that current (unlocked) capacity. It might be as high as 70kWh (the 68kWh is just the degradation threshold which is always equal to or lower than the initial capacity, but it's unlikely it would be higher than 70kWh available for use). So sure, we'll assume 70kWh as a reasonable guess for a typical case (this could be a lot higher with a software lock, I have no idea).
Remember the 2170L cells didn't technically exist on battery day, which added 5% capacity. So we should compare to a 78kWh Model Y with 316 miles range, not an 82kWh Model Y with 326 miles.
Combo of efficiency and capacity improvements to give 54% range increase (from 78kWh...so only 49% from 82kWh).
Efficiency on the highway? Looks like it's 151MPGe for 4680, while it is 152MPGe for the 2170. Both 2022 vehicles. As you say, the same.
As you say, the docs claim the weights are the about the same (4356 vs. 4381) which makes it seem like the pack is fully populated...but also makes you wonder if it is correct?
So anyway, unless they magically get some efficiency, or they are hiding a bunch of existing capacity (they might be hiding some but are limited on cells so not too much presumably!) looks like they'd need to be able to cram 78kWh*1.54 = 120kWh into the vehicle, giving it ~486 rated miles of range (49% more than existing vehicle), to meet their Battery Day statements.
I guess we'll see if they can! To me it's very unclear how it's populated (in spite of the weight...). I guess we'll see what the teardown from Munro shows very shortly?
Two questions:
1) How is the pack populated?
2) Is any of the pack in the 279-mile version locked out right now?
Kind of need to know the answer to both questions...we'll only get the answer to one definitively in the initial teardown. Seems pretty far off at the moment, I agree - but I don't know the answers here.
Anyway, back to discussion about short-term FSD promises.