There's a difference between market value and replacement value.
If I've got a car that I've owned for the past 6 years and it needs a $22k in order to work. Cargurus seems to be selling 2012/2013 Ss for $25-$35k; one with a dead battery is worth 10k?
My options are:
- spend 2 months and $5k (or more) to Gruber it. Maybe it'll work fine for months/years, maybe not. I don't get a warranty and maybe I've ruined the battery (or maybe Gruber will tell me the battery isn't viable and they'll need to put another one in for $XYZ)
- replace the car with another "comparable" 8 year old S. It'll cost between $10k and $20k depending on the scrap value of the dead S and the purchase price of the replacement S. I won't get a warranty on anything.
- replace the car with another used car; that may be a wash if I can find someone willing to give up their 2002 corolla with no bumper, or an eGolf with 200k miles on it. It may be pretty expensive if I want a Bentley Bentayaga.
- spend $16k and get a refurb battery and 1 year warranty (on the battery)
- spend $22k and get a new battery and get a 4 year warranty (on the battery)
- spend between $15k and $50k and get a new car after scraping / trading the old one. Maybe you get a Citroën or a Golf or a standard range M3. You'll get a warranty of some sort on the whole car. Getting a 2021 3 or Y or S will cost between $28k and a whole lot more, though a standard range RWD 3 is probably pretty comparable to a 2012 S (better in many ways, worse in a couple), and would be $39k - trade in.
So, how much is your money worth, how much is your time worth, how much is your agony worth?
Inertia is a huge force here. If I can drop my wonky S off at the service center, drive around a loaner for a week or two, and pick up my old car with my boogers under the seat, and I'm $22k poorer but I get a 4 year warranty, that's a pretty compelling choice, if I feel good about the rest of the car (which I may or may not, depending on how f'ed up the rest of it's been in the past 6 years).
Rage is also a huge force. If I've gotten sick and tired of shoveling money into the damned thing, I'll just hire an arsonist to deal with the car and take the insurance money and buy a Corolla. (this is a joke; seriously kids, don't commit insurance fraud. It's illegal. Also TikTok will rot your brain).
But, the price is the price. Tesla may or may not reduce it, but I'd be surprised if it went down substantially. It may be that tesla's able to make some battery packs at $150 per kWh (or $100 per kWh), but I'd be surprised if the "cells from japan, assembled into a low volume high complexity pack in california" packs have seen the same price reductions as Tesla's other products. Maybe in the distant future when there are tons of S cars out there with rotten packs they'll make lower cost replacement packs? Maybe in the distant future they'll just tell you to buy a new car. The future's one of those things that's difficult to predict.