A Path to S&P Inclusion ....NOW:
@Fact Checking - your comment above was related to the potential that Tesla's Call options gains could bring sufficient GAAP profits in Q4 to ensure S&P inclusion with the Q4 filing. In a separate post I commented that the gains would not likely be counted as income.
However:
There is an obscure item on Tesla's Balance Sheet that could bring huge upside to Q4....enough to achieve full year 2019 GAAP Profits and inclusion into the S&P. I have hesitated to bring this up in the past because it could easily be a big Nothing Burger and also because it is a very technical tax accounting issue. But since this is the weekend and your post touched on early S&P inclusion, I thought I would share it.
TL;DR: Tesla has deferred the recognition of $1.8B in tax benefits on the P&L because they could not conclude it was likely that they would have income in the future to take advantage of these benefits. Once profitability is likely (and supported by the auditors), this $1.8B (or a portion thereof) gets recognized immediately to GAAP profits. If Tesla concludes now that profitability is likely in 2020 and thereafter, $1.8B (or a portion) gets included in Q4 profits.
The Long Version
When a company incurs a loss, they record a
tax benefit because they can reduce taxes in the future by offsetting future tax income with these tax losses. It's called a "Net Operating Loss Carryforward" (a Tax Asset).
So you would typically see a P&L as such:
$(100,000) - Pretax Income (Loss)
$ 30,000 - Tax Benefit (Expense)
$ (70,000) - Net Income (Loss)
However, the accounting rules state that you can only record this benefit if "it is more likely than not" that you will be able to use this benefit (tax asset) in the future.
Tesla has not recognized any of these benefits over the past 15 years because they could not confidently conclude and support to the auditors that profitably in the future was "more likely than not".
Here is Tesla's wording from the 2018 10K:
As of December 31, 2018, we recorded a valuation allowance of $1.81 billion for the portion of the deferred tax asset that we do not expect to be realized.....Management believes that based on the available information, it is more likely than not that the U.S. deferred tax assets will not be realized, such that a full valuation allowance is required against all U.S. deferred tax assets.
You can see this deferred benefit (valuation allowance) on their deferred tax asset schedule from the 2018 10K below:
View attachment 501942
Tesla's position on this tax accounting is correct.
Here is the important point: As soon as Tesla can support to the auditors, that "it is more likely than not", that profitability will be achieved in 2020 and beyond, this tax benefit comes back to earnings immediately. If not all of the $1.8B a substantial amount would.
Points Against Recognition in Q4
- Since Tesla has never had a full year profit in its history, they and their auditors may take a conservative approach and deem future profits unlikely.
- Despite 2 profitable Qtrs in 2018, Telsa still concluded (as seen in the 2018 10K) that it was "more likely than not" they would not be able to recognize the tax benefits with future profits.
Points For Recognition in Q4
- Tesla has been profitable in 4 of the last 6 Qtrs
- With Model 3 fully ramped, GF3 producing vehicles and Model Y entry assured for 2020, profitability is "more likely than not".
- Elon will likely state during the Q4 earnings call that Tesla expects a full year profit in 2020. Telsa can't state this publicly while simultaneously stating in the 2019 10K that future profits cannot be assured for taking the tax benefits.
- Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) needs to be applied consistently. You can't take the position: "profits are more likely than not but let's not take the earnings benefit just to be conservative". Profits are either "more likely than not" or they're "more unlikely than not". If it is the former, you take the benefit to earnings.
I'm not sure which way this will go. If the huge benefit is not taken in Q4 2019, it's certain we'll see it in 2020.
My brain tells me that they will take the huge benefit in Q4 2019 but my gut says they won't.
TeslaQ has been all over the Balance Sheet pushing questions on Warranty Reserves, Accounts Receivables, etc.......but they're not talking about this one.
Let's see how this plays out.
