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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Ellec, May 22, 2018.
I say $700?
I think higher it’ll be higher than $700 by the end of 2019 this ramp will be long forgotten. Tesla will be building a run rate of 9-10k cars per week and the Semi,Y and roadster will be about to be released. Tesla energy will be working on some cool next level projects as well. FSD should be demod by then as well, although I foresee hard ware upgrades needed.
We’ll have gone through at least one nice short squeeze raising the price significantly. I’m predicting $1000
Maybe the mid to upper 400s. The bears will be quadrupling down at that point.The Model Y will be their excuse. They will be going on and on about how it can't be built. No one will want it except early adopters. Plus the cap raise needed mantra for the factory. Oh and the competition! Don't forget about that.Then of coarse one of the Semi's will have an accident and the stock price will tank because diesel rigs don't crash, only electrics.
You will note that the "Tesla will never profit" part is at least gone.
I think Tesla being profitable in 2019 will kill off most shorts. That's the whole crux of their thesis and the only valid one but that's about to be corrected. I think $1000 is achievable if every goes to plan but $800 being conservative.
It will kill of shorts that want/hope to make a profit by going short.
It will not kill of shorts that want to depress the SP and diminish capital available to Tesla.
I'd guess about 10% of shorts are of the first type and about 90% are of the second type.
The majority of shorts are not short Tesla to make money, they are making it elsewhere, being short is their investment into protecting their existing business buy hurting Tesla as a competitor.
Any evidence to back that up? No one likes to lose money, they'll soon cover when no one one will be willing to cover them. Read up on short squeezes, it can wipe out hedge funds
300 to 350
I don't think the demand is there to maintain a rate of 10k/week. If it is, the average selling price is going to be very low, which will reduce Tesla's margins substantially. If they can hit and maintain that rate while at the same time hitting the milestones on the Y, roadster and Semi and a S/X redesign, then yeah $700-$1000 is reasonable. The chance of that happening are zero though.
If there is a total collapse in markets in general... $300. Otherwise... Higher.
You should recheck your demand model. Bluntly, you are obviously wrong. Something over 60 million cars in this price bracket are sold each year worldwide; less than 1% is an achievable market share.
They have 500k reservations, this is without any advertising and no cars in showrooms, imagine the demand when they are everywhere? They could easily sell 1 million a year world wide for a decade.
You are vastly overstating the demand for a $50k that can't realistically be owned by someone living in an apartment. You're talking about eclipsing the market leading 3/4-series which is built in like 5 body styles with a vast array of performance and luxury variations. It's not going to happen.
I own an EV and don't have a charger at home. If you can charge at work or when out in town, it doesn't necessitate home charging. The number of people who come up to ask me questions about the car and how it all works is quite something. They are always interested and pleasantly surprised by what I tell them about my experiences and often agree they should switch to EV. If it were as stunning as a Tesla, the passing interest would be even greater. There is a lot of ignorance surrounding EV ownership and generally speaking, the more people learn the more they feel compelled to own one.
Tesla Model 3 sales beat BMW 3-Series and Mercedes C-Class during first quarter in California, says report
By May it will eclipse them in the whole of the US.
That's when the Ramp was struggling.
PS: Why can't you edit posts on this forum?
I think Tesla needs very strong domestic demand, and I wonder if a compact sedan has the sales stamina. Really Model 3 should of been a SUV, it would have enduring sales as the market continues to transition away from sedans.
Elsewhere in the world sedans do well but Tesla are up not only up against foreign car makers but foreign governments. Expect to see Chinese, Japanese and European governments increase support for EV development and charging infrastructure to their local carmakers under the guise of environmental reasons but really will be done to assist local industries.
Ultimately Tesla will be a huge success but it’s going to be complex and maybe across a diversified field of products
I don't think you understand how different California is from the rest of the US.
People buy cars in every state, California is usually the leader and then it spreads to the rest of the world.
Most of my post was obviously for humor BUT if you read the shorts that post in this forum at least the one who admits he shorted at $200 and covered at a loss just to turn around again and short the stock at $350. If I had shorted at $350 I would have definitely covered at $250 but he didn’t.
They won’t admit it but they are trying to block TSLA from capital markets so they can’t keep expanding in the hopes Tesla will go bankrupt. This manipulation will not stop just because another short squeeze comes along. They will take their losses and reshort it at $900 and rake in the profits when it drops back to 700ish. Using that capital they will wait for the Model Y when they can start the mass FUD again and short 60Million shares or more to force the price back down into the $500s with $400s as the bounce range.
I don’t know if shorts are trying to block access to capital markets, but it could be a side effect of their involvement. I think the majority are simply betting on a share price slide, sometimes they win sometimes they lose. Over the longer term their activities will probably reduce as TSLA starts to stabilise.