Share Price at end of 2019 if ramp to 10k

[Unpilot]

I say close to 1k
IF...the macro mrkt does not implode.
IF the 10 million the Koch brothers and others are throwing into FUD about renewable's does not have too large an effect.
IF the Chinese mrkt grows as expected.
IF Elon does not work himself to death.

 

[sundaymorning]

I think higher it’ll be higher than $700 by the end of 2019 this ramp will be long forgotten. Tesla will be building a run rate of 9-10k cars per week and the Semi,Y and roadster will be about to be released. Tesla energy will be working on some cool next level projects as well. FSD should be demod by then as well, although I foresee hard ware upgrades needed.


We’ll have gone through at least one nice short squeeze raising the price significantly. I’m predicting $1000

I’ve never been through a short squeeze before, can you guide us through how it’ll look like, by giving an example of the stock you held? Thanks.

 

[K_Dizzle]

I’ve never been through a short squeeze before, can you guide us through how it’ll look like, by giving an example of the stock you held? Thanks.

Story time.
Ive held canopy growth since ~$2.4 per share. The price action in early 2016 was hot And if I remember hit $17.40 /share as the Trudeau government confirmed the mandate to fully legalize marijuana in Canada. It was going up 5-10% every single day until it hit wall and fell back to $12 in a week. Fortunes were made and lost. At the time and still now “legal” mj is not yet sold in Canada but probably will be in July. You had analysts everyday coming on bnn talking about how these companies make $10 mil in revenue but are valued over $1b in market cap. At the time revenue was made up of a very restricted medical market. All these ignored the fact that the legal market is about to opened to a country of 37 million people with the highest mj consumption rates in the world. Slowly reports putting Canada’s black market at around $2billion in sales started surfacing. Anyways as a result of these Bay Street guys( Canada’s Wall Street ) convincing everyone these were terrible investments the price got depressed below $8 in mid 2017. I’m sure shorts were laughing all the way to the bank. I ran all my models, got in touch with people in the industry and was convinced that the whole industry in Canadian fashion was going to be run as an oligopoly concentrating worth in a few large business and canopy was the segment leader.

That’s where I decided to sell half my shares which was a very substantial amount of money already and put it into April 2018 $10 calls. I picked some up as low as $0.50 a peice.
From that point on things got pretty interesting, the price ran past the old high of $17 a share again but stalled around there for a couple of weeks. All of a sudden one Sunday afternoon constellation brands(owners of corona) decided they’re going to buy 10% into canopy with the option to buy another 10% in a year. From that point the industry took off and the price again began rising quickly. I think this was the short squeeze. It ran to $34 within a couple of months. I sold my options at $25 making out like a bandit. Sold my shares around $30 as at that price I though the run was over. Anyways $Weed hit $40 a share last week. It has a market cap of $7.4B and probably less than $100M of revenue and made a small accounting profit last I checked.

 

[pz1975]

Great story K_Dizzle. I managed to get a lot of Aurora Cannabis (ACB) shares very cheap by buying shares in a private company called CanvasRx just before they were bought by Aurora and they were converted to ACB shares. It was my first ever 10-bagger and I still get a block of free ACB shares every few months (and will for the next 2 years).

 

[ggr]

I’ve never been through a short squeeze before, can you guide us through how it’ll look like, by giving an example of the stock you held? Thanks.

The one I lived through was Qualcomm in 1999. I was doing international mobile phone security standards for them. Here's the historical chart:

Here's roughly what I remember of the events and leadup. In late 1998, Qualcomm was doing everything to do with CDMA in the US; making handsets, infrastructure equipment, chips, and had a few companies deploying 2G CDMA (including Sprint and Verizon, and others in Asia). Some of our chip customers, Sony, Panasonic, etc, were upset that we were competing with their handsets, so they forced us to sell off the handset division (to Kyocera); that was when the first special dividend (D on the chart) was issued.

In the meantime, the GSM world mostly in Europe were pushing an enhancement of TDMA, or a variant of CDMA called Wideband CDMA, which they thought would avoid Qualcomm's CDMA patent portfolio. It was a big fight and no-one, even at Qualcomm, was sure that Qualcomm would survive. There were published articles claiming that CDMA "violated the laws of physics" (I still get angry when I read a headline about a basketball throw "violating the laws of physics"). Anyway, I was in San Diego for work and a friend's wedding, and we all knew something was up. That is the little rise between the "D" and "S" in the graph above, which doesn't look like much but was a nearly 50% rise. I went to a party that included a bunch of the system administrators from Q, and rumors about another spinoff were abounding, and I managed to weasel out of one of the IT managers (who knew!) that the acquirer of our infrastructure division was Ericsson, who were one of the cabal against CDMA. Always be on good terms with the sysadmins and secretaries. I remember saying to him, "NO, you don't understand! This means we WIN! Stock will be 200 [from about 80, pre-splits] within two weeks!" We bet a dinner on it. I still haven't collected on that dinner, but in fact the day after the announcement Q stock hit about $185, then dropped back a bit. I did still win, it hit $200 on the way up exactly two weeks after the bet. And kept going.

Just before Christmas some maniac analyst predicted $1000, but then we did a 4-1 split. Q stock did, in fact, hit $250, a single trade I believe, on Dec 30 or 31.

In case you weren't aware, what we all now call 3G is WCDMA, and Qualcomm's patents were all deemed necessary for it.

Anyway, 20x in a few months, and 10x of it in a few trading days around Christmas.

 

[Ellec]

Interesting posts on Short Squeezes, The short interest on Tesla seems to indicate it could be something of another magnitude. It all depends on the willingness of longs to sell, if liquidity drys up for shorts to cover i think it could be a massacre. I think it unfold over the next 4-6 months.