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Share Price Manipulation

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mblakele

FSD Beta (99)
Mar 7, 2016
1,831
6,424
SF Bay Area
The main investor thread includes a lot of chatter about price manipulation, so I thought a dedicated thread could be useful.

Here's a recent article to kick off the discussion. This is about metal trading, but the technique seems more general so I hope it sheds light on how manipulation might work.

JPMorgan Chase faces a fine of $920m for market manipulation

[...]

The traders are alleged to have used “spoofing”, a ruse where a marketmaker seeking to buy or sell an asset, like gold or a bond, places a series of phoney orders on the opposite side of the market in order to confuse other market participants and move the price in his favour. A trader trying to sell gold, for instance, might place a series of buy orders, creating the illusion of demand. This dupes others into pushing prices higher, permitting the trader to sell at an elevated price. Once accomplished, the trader cancels his fake orders.

The practice was explicitly outlawed in America in 2010, but the rise of algorithmic traders—which rapidly analyse order books to work out where prices might move next—has made it more tempting for human traders to spoof them. According to prosecutors one JPMorgan trader described the tactic as “a little razzle-dazzle to juke the algos”. In the past two years Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Merrill Lynch and UBS have all paid penalties on spoofing charges.

Though JPMorgan’s case shares similarities with past infringements, regulators and prosecutors have also become tougher. The penalty meted out to the bank is the largest ever for spoofing. The Department of Justice (DoJ) said that when it considered the appropriate punishment it took into account the fact that JPMorgan had pleaded guilty to manipulating foreign-exchange markets in 2015, suggesting that repeated offences would be punished more severely.

[...]​
 
Maybe start with basic necessary readings 101 on the subject:

- articles/ books by Janet Takavoli / Matt Taibi / Naomi Prins ...
- review of pertinent articles in Wall Street On Parade

So we don't waste time rediscovering the wheel.

Note, personal guess: Elon Musk is/ was keenly aware of the defects of the current banking system. In a way, just as well, had he tried to disrupt the financial banking system he might have followed in JFK 's track.

(*) JFK did try and correct the unbelievably weird situation we have now, we borrow "money" from the Federal Reserve Bank, paying them interest, while at the same time guaranteeing them. Why not just let the US Treasury issue money directly?
 
The main investor thread includes a lot of chatter about price manipulation, so I thought a dedicated thread could be useful.

Here's a recent article to kick off the discussion. This is about metal trading, but the technique seems more general so I hope it sheds light on how manipulation might work.

JPMorgan Chase faces a fine of $920m for market manipulation

[...]

The traders are alleged to have used “spoofing”, a ruse where a marketmaker seeking to buy or sell an asset, like gold or a bond, places a series of phoney orders on the opposite side of the market in order to confuse other market participants and move the price in his favour. A trader trying to sell gold, for instance, might place a series of buy orders, creating the illusion of demand. This dupes others into pushing prices higher, permitting the trader to sell at an elevated price. Once accomplished, the trader cancels his fake orders.

The practice was explicitly outlawed in America in 2010, but the rise of algorithmic traders—which rapidly analyse order books to work out where prices might move next—has made it more tempting for human traders to spoof them. According to prosecutors one JPMorgan trader described the tactic as “a little razzle-dazzle to juke the algos”. In the past two years Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Merrill Lynch and UBS have all paid penalties on spoofing charges.

Though JPMorgan’s case shares similarities with past infringements, regulators and prosecutors have also become tougher. The penalty meted out to the bank is the largest ever for spoofing. The Department of Justice (DoJ) said that when it considered the appropriate punishment it took into account the fact that JPMorgan had pleaded guilty to manipulating foreign-exchange markets in 2015, suggesting that repeated offences would be punished more severely.

[...]​
It would be lovely if all the discussion on the main investor thread related to share price manipulation moved here. Then I could unignore the dozens of posters there who can't seem to help themselves from attributing every twitch of the share price (downward) to manipulation, even as TSLA continues to regularly hit all-time highs.

As it stands, I'm going to continue to take the same position as I do regarding all FUD. Show me evidence. If you are going to present evidence regarding TSLA, then also show that it is different from other similar stocks. Nobody has ever done this, Just lots of "look at that suspicious pattern"!!!

The human mind tends to find patterns in randomness. All technical analysis comes from this, and so does the tendency to see manipulation in what is really nothing at all.

Thanks for the effort. It will, of course, come to nothing. The less people have to say, the more they post about nothing.
 
"Impact of Counterfeit Shares on Stock Price"

View attachment 597424

Securities hocus pocus allows MMs and hedgies to create millions of counterfeit shares. All is explained in the "Citizens for Securities Reform" White Paper Counterfeiting Stock 2.0

Also available as a 45 page PDF with Appendices.

Best TSLA-related read of 2020 (even though it was written years ago). Explains much (if not all).

Lodger #NakedShortSelling

For example, there is this argument :

"How Pervasive Is This? - At any given point in time more than 100 emerging companies are under attack as described above. This is not to be confused with the day-to-day shorting that occurs in virtually every stock, which is purportedly about thirty percent of the daily volume. The success rate for short attacks is over ninety percent - a success being defined as putting the company into bankruptcy or driving the stock price to pennies. It is estimated that 1000 small companies have been put out of business by the shorts. Admittedly, not every small company deserves to succeed, but they do deserve a level playing field.

"The secrecy that surrounds the shorts, the prime brokers, the DTC and the regulatory agencies makes it impossible to accurately estimate how much money has been stolen from the investing public by these predators, but the total is measured in billions of dollars. The problem is also international in scope."​

Lodger #NakedShortSelling

Quoted from the chat thread for easy reference.
 
I liked the book Flash Boys:

Generally I think that manipulation is very hard, it opens you up to exploitation and there are plenty of rational agents out there looking to exploit you. Sometimes the system is rigged like in the book. Whenever I want to buy shares of for example TSLA I place a limit order a bit away from current price. So I telegraph the price far in advance and all the bots can compete on who is willing to make the least profit to fill my order rather than let the quickest one, ie the one my broker is selling my order information to, take all the profit and share some of it with my broker.